TLDR: My grade: B-. By the tape + advanced stats, they're not great, but not bad. Both O-Line and D-Line are massive disappointments. Geno is really good. Garrett Wilson deserves better. They're 3-3 talent-wise and a few plays from 4-2. Execution is the biggest issue. Glenn could improve, but he has the team playing competitively.
I watched the games, rewatched a lot of tape, and looked at a f-ton of advanced stats. A lot left to be desired. Not nearly as bad as some people think. But so, so, so, so f'ing many missed opportunities. Braelon has been better than expected. Geno needs to take more chances, give his playmakers opportunities. Belton could be all-pro. Sadiq gets wide open A LOT. 2027 draft picks looking good.
Why B- ? We shouldn't have expected a Super Bowl team. They've been competitive (except vs CHI). Clearly better than last year. They have a lot of solid core pieces to build around.
Overall - not bad, not great, better than last year
| Stat |
Jets |
Rank |
| DVOA |
-6.8% |
20th |
| DVOA offense |
-4.0% |
17th |
| DVOA defense |
+2.3% |
20th |
| DVOA special teams |
-0.5% |
18th |
| EPA/play, offense |
-0.02 |
19th |
| EPA/play, defense |
-0.02 |
15th |
| Turnover margin |
+4 |
T-6th |
| Stat |
2025 |
2026 |
| Offense EPA/play |
29th |
19th |
| Defense EPA/play |
30th |
15th |
| Point diff per game |
-11.9 |
-1.7 |
Pass blocking - decent except when it's important
| Stat |
Jets |
Rank |
| ESPN pass block win rate |
52% |
13th |
| Pressures that become sacks (wks 1-5) |
40% |
30th (league 26%) |
| Sack rate |
9.3% |
30th |
| Sack rate, 1st/2nd down |
7.0% |
24th |
| Sacked or hit, 1st/2nd down vs 4 or fewer rushers |
11.5% |
League 11.7% |
| Sack rate, 3rd/4th down |
14.5% |
31st (league 8.3%) |
| Sack rate, 3rd/4th down vs 4 or fewer rushers |
14.0% |
30th (league 7.4%) |
| Sack rate, 3rd/4th and 5+ |
16.7% |
31st |
| Sack rate, 4th qtr one-score game |
15.6% |
30th |
| Sacks FTN charges to Geno |
0 of 19 |
fewest |
O-line - massive disappointment
| Player |
Tape |
Blown pass blocks |
Blown run blocks |
Sacks allowed |
| Fashanu (LT) |
Not good, bad |
11 (5.4%), 47th of 67 T |
7 (4.9%), 64th of 67 T |
4 |
| Meredith (LG, wks 3-6) |
Bad |
3 (2.9%), 44th of 67 G |
3 (4.0%), 57th of 67 G |
0 |
| Parham (LG, wks 1-3) |
Meh |
2 (2.0%), 30th of 67 G |
4 (5.9%), 64th of 67 G |
0 |
| Myers (C) |
Not good, bad |
2 (1.0%), 9th of 35 C |
5 (3.5%), 26th of 35 C |
1 |
| Tippmann (RG) |
Decent-to-bad |
3 (1.5%), 15th of 67 G |
3 (2.1%), 37th of 67 G |
2 |
| Membou (RT) |
Really Mixed |
4 (2.0%), 9th of 67 T |
8 (5.6%), 66th of 67 T |
2 |
SIS DataHub blown blocks thru wk 6. Ranked against linemen at the same spot with 150+ snaps.
- Whole line, blown run blocks: 4.2%, 32nd.
- Blown blocks don't catch a busted stunt pickup or a bad protection call. I've seen both many times on tape; is Myers not calling the right protections? Is Geno not identifying? IDK
Run game - awful o-line play saved by the RBs
| Stat |
Jets |
Rank |
| ESPN run block win rate |
71% |
28th |
| SIS blown run blocks, whole line |
4.2% |
32nd |
| NGS expected yards per carry |
3.43 |
31st |
| Stuffed at or behind the line |
22.4% |
29th |
| 3rd/4th and 1-2, on the ground |
7 of 13 |
27th |
| Rush EPA |
-0.15 |
22nd |
| Yards over expected per carry |
+0.39 |
9th |
- All or almost all short-yardage stops vs GB and NE were inside runs ?!?!?!??!?!
| Where they ran |
Runs |
Success |
Rank |
| Left end |
12 |
58% |
7th |
| Left tackle |
23 |
30% |
22nd |
| Left guard |
19 |
42% |
T-15th |
| Middle |
33 |
27% |
32nd |
| Right guard |
25 |
48% |
2nd |
| Right tackle |
16 |
44% |
10th |
| Right end |
13 |
38% |
17th |
Geno - very high floor, won't win you the game, won't lose you the game
| Stat |
Geno |
Rank |
| EPA/dropback |
+0.07 |
18th |
| EPA/dropback, sacks taken out |
+0.28 |
8th |
| CPOE (NGS) |
+6.1 |
4th |
| INT rate |
0.6% |
4th |
| INT-worthy throws (FTN) |
1.7% |
8th |
| TD passes of 20+ yds |
5 |
T-1st |
| Outside the pocket |
10.8% |
4th least |
| 3rd down conversion |
31.7% |
25th |
| Red zone EPA/dropback |
-0.39 |
32nd |
- Sacks cost ~6 pts a game
- Deep ball: 9 of 16. Best EPA/deep throw in the NFL.
Garrett and the pass catchers - GW is elite, but they run too much to feed him
| Garrett Wilson |
Value |
Rank |
| ESPN Open Score (data wks 1-5) |
91 |
1st of 54 WRs |
| ESPN Overall (wks 1-5) |
96 |
2nd of 54, behind JSN |
| ESPN Catch Score (wks 1-5) |
99 |
T-1st |
| Catch rate over expected |
+7.9 |
10th of 58 WRs |
| EPA/target |
+0.51 |
12th of 58 |
| Target share |
28.6% |
9th of 58 |
| Air yards share |
38.7% |
12th of 58 |
| 3rd/4th down target share |
40% |
3rd of 58 |
| First-read target share (Fantasy Points) |
44.4% |
2nd |
| Player |
Tape |
EPA/tgt |
| Garrett |
Elite |
+0.51 |
| Cooper Jr. |
Very, very, very good |
+1.19 |
| Sadiq |
Good |
-0.25 |
| Mason Taylor |
Good |
0.00 |
| AD Mitchell |
Very, very, very good |
+0.58 |
- Sadiq: NGS separation 4.2 yds, 3rd of 34 TEs. Only 67% of his targets were catchable, 30th of 34.
Offense dies at midfield - WHY ?!?!!??!?!?! AWFUL execution
| Stat |
Jets |
Rank |
| EPA/play, own territory |
+0.10 |
7th |
| EPA/play, past midfield |
-0.18 |
31st |
| EPA/play, red zone |
-0.22 |
31st |
| Red zone success rate |
34% |
31st |
| Red zone trips ending in a TD |
6 of 15 (40%) |
32nd |
Defense - average, browns game was outlier, d-line is not good
| Stat |
All 6 games |
Rank |
Without CLE |
Rank |
| EPA/play |
-0.02 |
15th |
+0.02 |
21st |
| Sack rate |
7.2% |
7th |
4.8% |
21st |
| Pressure rate (wks 1-5) |
21.7% |
15th |
16.1% |
28th |
| Sacked or hit, 4 or fewer rushers |
12.6% |
18th |
9.0% |
28th |
| Pass success allowed |
45.8% |
16th |
50.5% |
27th |
| Rush success allowed |
42.8% |
28th |
45.3% |
30th |
| More defense |
Jets |
Rank |
| ESPN pass rush win rate |
48% |
21st |
| ESPN run stop win rate |
25% |
32nd |
| Rush EPA allowed, fumbles taken out |
-0.06 |
17th |
- Sacks at NE: 0 on 35 dropbacks (NE played 3 backup O-Line).
| D-line |
Tape |
Pressure rate wks 1-5 (pctile) |
Sacks |
Run stops per 100 run snaps (rank) |
| Bailey |
Good-to-great |
7.1% (85th) |
5 |
9.3 (46th of 121 edge) |
| Enagbare |
Good-to-great |
4.4% (56th) |
2 |
13.0 (16th of 121 edge) |
| McDonald |
Good-to-bad |
6.1% (78th) |
2 |
5.1 (99th of 121 edge) |
| Ossai |
Playing hurt |
0 in 57 pass rushes (4th) |
0 |
8.0 (62nd of 121 edge) |
| Briggs |
Good |
3.1% (39th) |
2 |
12.6 (38th of 109 DT) |
| Sweat |
Decent at stopping the run |
1.0% (10th) |
0 |
12.8 (34th of 109 DT) |
| Phillips |
Just a body |
3.6% (44th) |
0 |
8.9 (70th of 109 DT) |
| Darrell Jackson Jr. |
Good, pleasantly surprised |
1.5% (19th) |
1 |
15.7 (16th of 109 DT) |
| Back 7 |
Tape / stats |
| AZ Thomas |
Good |
| Brandon Stephens |
Good |
| Brownlee |
Meh |
| Belton |
Very good-to-elite |
| Minkah (3 gms) |
Very good-to-elite |
| Demario Davis |
Very good-to-elite |
| Sherwood |
Good and bad |
Games - 2-4 record, should be 3-3, could be 4-2
| Wk |
Opp |
Result |
Success rate, Jets vs them |
| 1 |
at TEN |
W 23-10 |
48% vs 44% |
| 2 |
GB |
L 17-20 OT |
38% vs 32% |
| 3 |
at DET |
L 24-31 |
45% vs 60% |
| 4 |
at CHI |
L 12-23 |
41% vs 57% |
| 5 |
CLE |
W 17-12 |
40% vs 26% |
| 6 |
at NE |
L 19-26 |
49% vs 43% |
- My model's expected wins: 2.97. Luck: 27th. Could be 4-2 based on tape.
- NE: won success rate 49% to 43%. But 0-3 in the red zone, 3-10 on 3rd, 0-2 on 4th. The 2 failed 4th downs: -6.4 EPA. Convert both, and the Jets likely win.
- GB: 92% peak win prob. Fell apart in the 4th and OT.
- DET: coin flip; game could've gone either way.
- CHI: 32 plays to their 90. Didn't show up. Ben outcoached Aaron.
Glenn - up and down, questionable management, but team playing competitively
| Stat |
Jets |
Rank |
| Final 2:00 of the 1st half, Glenn era (23 gms) |
6-100 (-94 point diff) |
32nd |
- 4th downs: play calls fine. Execution bad.
- Lots of questionable game management calls.
- Missing key players for stretches: Parham, Breece, AD Mitchell, Mason Taylor, Ossai, Minkah, Cooper Jr.
TLDR: Grade: B-. Middle of the pack by EPA and DVOA. A few glaring holes and coaching mismanagement. Garrett is elite. Both O-Line and D-Line are not good. The offense dies past the 50. Glenn's team competes every week but can't execute to win the games.