I've been tracking the daily early vote files in North Carolina (both mail and early in-person) and matching them against the exact same day before the election in 2022 and 2024.

Right now we're at 238,000 ballots cast, which is up 25% compared to this point in 2022. By party registration, it breaks down to 46.9% Democrat, 19.5% Republican, and 33.6% Unaffiliated (Unaffiliated voters are up 42% over 2022).

That puts the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans at D+27.4 right now. At this exact same point in 2022, it was D+13.2. At this point in 2024, it was D+3.1.

What makes that jump so crazy is the shift in how Republicans treat early voting. Back in 2022, a lot of Republicans avoided early voting on principle, which gave Dems a big head start. By 2024, the GOP was heavily advertising and telling their voters to bank their votes early—which is why the gap at this point in 2024 was only D+3.1.

Normally, now that Republicans actively push early voting, you'd expect the early Dem lead to stay much smaller than 2022. Instead, Dem early ballots are up 41% while Republican early ballots are down 14%, blowing past both 2024 and 2022.

Two quick reality checks before anyone reads too much into it: first, party registration isn't a vote, and with a third of the ballots coming from Unaffiliated voters, nobody knows how those break until Election Night. Second, in 2022 that D+13.2 lead shrunk down to D+7.1 by the end of early voting as more Republicans showed up in the final week. That's why we don't feed early voting into our forecast model.

If you want to keep an eye on it over the next two weeks, I update the tracker three times a day here:

https://www.callthemap.com/early-vote

North Carolina state Sen. Michael Lee ran an attack ad using AI-generated images of his opponent, Jessica Bichler, twisting her body into impossible yoga poses while calling her “bonkers” and making disputed claims about her political affiliations. He was sent a cease-and-desist letter but chose to keep running the ads anyway.

Now someone is putting up giant posters and cardboard cutouts of Lee holding cash, wearing an “I ❤️ Special Interest” shirt, and appearing to have peed himself.

Lee is demanding that Bichler condemn the attacks. She has, also stating that “…unlike my opponent, I’ve always been against AI-generated advertisements.”

Apparently, AI-generated political smears are fair game until you’re the one being mocked.

Uwharrie Search Dogs, a 501c3 is hosting a national training seminar for search and rescue handlers in Denton, from Oct 25-30. We are in need of volunteers to hide on the 26th through 29th.

No experience necessary, we just need folks to hide in the woods or buildings, so the dogs and their handlers can find you. If you can hide for half of one day or more, please reach out. Lunch is provided if you stay the majority of the day.

Remember to get vaccinated for the flu! Only 9% are vaxxed right now compared to 24% last year.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/north-carolina-receives-550-million-230822488.html

Hello all! Planning on driving out to WS to meet someone on a road trip for lunch on Sunday. 12-1 something. Driving from raleigh.

Any suggestions?

Nothing too crazy, just some good consistent food

We had parking tickets and admission tickets and couldn't make it the last few miles to get in....standstill traffic, we finally gave up and bailed....any ideas why the traffic handling was so bad? I expected better from an event they hold annually. Did something happen? No word whatsoever from organizers....ugh

Was it like this last year?

I am not sure who at the DOT schedules roadwork during peak leaf season but if you are traveling via 321 please be aware of roadwork between Granite falls and Lenoir that includes grooved payment. Motorcycles please be careful it’s not a long stretch but it is deep with a bump included so y’all come see us but be safe.

I know I will.

Hello. I'm a Japanese. Sorry if my English is awkward.

I'm going to visit North Carolina to attend a scientific conference. I'm so looking forward to it because this is my first time to go to the US.

Before going there, I want to know about North Carolina. Please tell me any information.

For example:

- Temperature in North Carolina (I'll be there at the end of October)

- Famous food I should try

- People's personality out there

Thank you for reading!

P.S. The city I'm visiting is Durham.