I've been tracking the daily early vote files in North Carolina (both mail and early in-person) and matching them against the exact same day before the election in 2022 and 2024.

Right now we're at 238,000 ballots cast, which is up 25% compared to this point in 2022. By party registration, it breaks down to 46.9% Democrat, 19.5% Republican, and 33.6% Unaffiliated (Unaffiliated voters are up 42% over 2022).

That puts the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans at D+27.4 right now. At this exact same point in 2022, it was D+13.2. At this point in 2024, it was D+3.1.

What makes that jump so crazy is the shift in how Republicans treat early voting. Back in 2022, a lot of Republicans avoided early voting on principle, which gave Dems a big head start. By 2024, the GOP was heavily advertising and telling their voters to bank their votes early—which is why the gap at this point in 2024 was only D+3.1.

Normally, now that Republicans actively push early voting, you'd expect the early Dem lead to stay much smaller than 2022. Instead, Dem early ballots are up 41% while Republican early ballots are down 14%, blowing past both 2024 and 2022.

Two quick reality checks before anyone reads too much into it: first, party registration isn't a vote, and with a third of the ballots coming from Unaffiliated voters, nobody knows how those break until Election Night. Second, in 2022 that D+13.2 lead shrunk down to D+7.1 by the end of early voting as more Republicans showed up in the final week. That's why we don't feed early voting into our forecast model.

If you want to keep an eye on it over the next two weeks, I update the tracker three times a day here:

https://www.callthemap.com/early-vote

Remember to get vaccinated for the flu! Only 9% are vaxxed right now compared to 24% last year.

Uwharrie Search Dogs, a 501c3 is hosting a national training seminar for search and rescue handlers in Denton, from Oct 25-30. We are in need of volunteers to hide on the 26th through 29th.

No experience necessary, we just need folks to hide in the woods or buildings, so the dogs and their handlers can find you. If you can hide for half of one day or more, please reach out. Lunch is provided if you stay the majority of the day.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/north-carolina-receives-550-million-230822488.html

I am not sure who at the DOT schedules roadwork during peak leaf season but if you are traveling via 321 please be aware of roadwork between Granite falls and Lenoir that includes grooved payment. Motorcycles please be careful it’s not a long stretch but it is deep with a bump included so y’all come see us but be safe.

Hello all! Planning on driving out to WS to meet someone on a road trip for lunch on Sunday. 12-1 something. Driving from raleigh.

Any suggestions?

Nothing too crazy, just some good consistent food

We had parking tickets and admission tickets and couldn't make it the last few miles to get in....standstill traffic, we finally gave up and bailed....any ideas why the traffic handling was so bad? I expected better from an event they hold annually. Did something happen? No word whatsoever from organizers....ugh

Was it like this last year?

Two weeks ago, a major Crokinole tournament (crokinole being a tabletop dexterity game) was hosted in Charlotte, North Carolina, bringing in competition from around the globe (some players travelled from Japan to be in attendance). Hosted by the Queen City Crokinole Club, this tournament was a part of the National Crokinole Association tour, which meant a number of world crokinole champions and top level competitors were in attendance.

If you want to learn more about the club, which hosts a plethora of tournaments and crokinole nights in the North Carolina Region, check out all the details along with the final of this epic event!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-kpllBl-XY

Triangle Roast Battle is officially 24 hours away!

We have the Mayor Of The City, a Live Band, 20 of the best comics in North Carolina, and Groovewagon, our THC Seltzer Sponsor will be there to keep y'all groovy the whole time. ALL WE NEED IS YOU!

Use code GROOVE20 for 20% off

Tickets for Triangle Roast Battle 10/17

What elevation is peaking right now? Is the summit already past it?

Is the lower half of Alum Cave (below Arch Rock) mostly green, or turning?

Any trail or road closures I should know about?
For Friday I'm leaning toward Rainbow Falls, but I'm open to a better low-elevation spot for color. I'm camping at Elkmont Thursday night.
Photos from this week would be amazing. Thanks!

I moved from WA state to NC last year and had auto insurance with Costco (American Family). They had pretty good rate.
Unfortunately they don’t offer auto insurance in the state of NC.
I switched to GEICO paying 950 per 6 months for 3 drivers and two cars (2016 gas SUV and 2024 Tesla MY). Buying another Tesla MY 2027 and the cost is more than doubled. The quoted premium for 6 months is 1950 (compared to 950).

What are some other reasonable options?