John Perrotto wrote this week at Pittsburgh Baseball Now that Skenes' salary will be out of the Pirates' comfort zone after next season and he's likely somewhere else in 2028. I get why, but I think that read assumes the current system survives the winter, and it probably won't.
Where he is on the clock
- Debuted May 11, 2024. He only had 142 days on the active roster, but winning Rookie of the Year got him a full year of service under the current CBA's prospect promotion rules.
- So he's at exactly 3.000 years now: arb-eligible for 2027, 2028 and 2029, and a free agent after 2029. The Pirates have three more years of control, not two.
- MLB Trade Rumors projects $7.2M for his first arb year. The record for a first-time arb pitcher is Dallas Keuchel's $7.25M from 2016, which Keuchel got coming off a Cy Young. Skenes has a Rookie of the Year and a Cy Young on his resume, so I'd be surprised if he doesn't clear Keuchel.
- He's already been paid like a star through the side door. The pre-arb bonus pool paid him a record $3,436,343 for 2025 (AP), $5,588,400 over his first two years, on top of an $875K salary.
The 2026 dip, honestly
| |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
| GS |
23 |
32 |
32 |
| IP |
133.0 |
187.2 |
174.1 |
| ERA |
1.96 |
1.97 |
3.82 |
| K/9 |
11.50 |
10.36 |
10.33 |
| BB/9 |
2.17 |
2.01 |
2.53 |
| HR/9 |
0.68 |
0.53 |
1.03 |
| WHIP |
0.95 |
0.95 |
1.12 |
| Avg 4-seam (Savant) |
98.8 |
98.2 |
96.8 |
The strikeouts didn't go anywhere. What went was about 1.4 mph off the fastball and a home run rate that nearly doubled. That's a real thing to fix, but it's not a guy falling apart. It's also exactly the stuff the team would hammer him on in a hearing, which is Perrotto's point about hearings getting ugly.
Why the CBA matters more than the arb number
Reported, not speculation:
- The CBA expires Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET. The Athletic's Evan Drellich obtained a league memo telling clubs to prepare for a lockout, during which there are no trades or signings with 40-man players.
- MLB's opening proposal in May (MLB.com, AP) was a hard cap of $245.3M and a floor of $171.2M for 2027, measured on CBT payroll, which includes about $23M in benefits.
- The union's opening proposal (MLBPA, AP, The Athletic) asked for a $1.5M minimum salary, expanded arbitration eligibility, a bigger pre-arb bonus pool, and a "competitive integrity tax" on teams under payroll benchmarks instead of a hard floor.
Now the Pittsburgh part. The Pirates opened 2026 at about $99.9M (AP). Cot's has them in the bottom five on Opening Day payroll in 16 of 19 seasons under Nutting through 2025. Even after adding benefits, a $171.2M floor means something like $50M or more in new spending they'd have to find. And $7.2M for Skenes is about 7% of this year's payroll.
My speculation from here, not reported:
- If any real floor comes out of this, whether MLB's hard one or the union's tax version, "out of their comfort zone" stops being a thing. The Pirates would need to spend money somewhere, and paying the guy they already have is the easiest and smartest place to put it.
- If the union wins bigger arb raises or a bigger pre-arb pool, his cost goes up, but so does everyone's, and a floor eats it anyway.
- If the deal ends up close to what we have now, Perrotto's probably right, and the smart move is trading him while he still has two-plus years of control instead of waiting.
- The timing is messy either way. If the lockout drags past the usual late-January hearing dates, his arb case could get pushed back. In 2022, arb was delayed until after the lockout ended in March.
Take: don't plan the farewell yet. Skenes' future in Pittsburgh gets decided at the bargaining table this winter, not in a hearing room. If a floor of any kind gets in, I think he's more likely to stay through 2029 than not.
So which is it for you: is a floor the thing that keeps Skenes here, or does Nutting find a way to trade him regardless of what the new CBA says?