As late as the release of The Electric State, you had a lot of people on this very subreddit defending Netflix’s basic strategy, arguing that they’d eventually drive movie theaters into oblivion. Don’t think it’s working out that way.

Brand New Day did $1558M OS with $228M from China so it did $1.33B OS-China

The MCU released 3 movies in 2022, which were Doctor Strange 2 ($544M OS-China), Thor 4 ($417M) and Black Panther 2 ($389M) which combined for $1.35B OS-China

All of the 2022 MCU movies were big hits (underperformed no doubt, but still hits) so the fact that a street level Spider-Man with the Hulk and Punisher managed to almost outgross 3 big hits combined overseas is pure nuts

It also goes to show how well received No Way Home was. It’s $1.1B OS-China definitely would’ve been way higher if it weren’t for the pandemic (despite the narrative that COVID “helped” No Way Home, it was still a major issue in late 2021/early 2022). Leaving off a $1.1B predecessor which had an A+ CinemaScore (yes, No Way Home was loved no matter how many 2 hours rants YouTubers make about why it sucks) and ended on a cliffhanger kind of left major hype for the sequel.

Also, how god damn high can Avengers: Doomsday go? According to somebody on Box Office Theory, Doomsday is tracking for a $475M OW. I think that’s a little bit ridiculous so let’s tone it down a bit to $450M.

$450M * 3.2 with a 42/58 split without China like Brand New Day will mean . . . drumroll please . . . $2B+ OS-China

And honestly based on how huge Endgame Encore was overseas, I can totally see something like $475M * 3.2 with a 40/60 split without China for a $2.28B+ OS-China total (jeezus)

I’m not the first person to say this but this film is comple screwed at the box office for several reasons:

A) this is the most major and pointed out but this film has to compete with not one but two Blockbusters being Avengers Doomsday and Dun 3 which will still be pulling huge numbers on their second weekend when this film drops on the 25th and both Avengers and Dune will have huge legs throughout January and February

B) Dune securing all IMAX screens for a three week period will take away from the ticket sales that could have been made from Jumanji since IMAX comes at an additional upcharge

C) The Rock has lost a lot of his mainstream appeal after several duds like Black Adam, Red One, Smashing Machine and live action Moana

I don’t know what Sony was thinking pushing this back to December 25th rather than December 11th as if it had released on the 11th it atleast would have had a week to itself before Dune and Avengers arrived. I only see this making $400-$450 million WW maybe $500 mil if the legs are decent

The MCU was in a pretty rough shape the last few years, but everyone agreed that 2026 was a heavy combo of Spider-Man and Avengers. Brand New Day surprassed all expectations in quality, reception and gross and it certainly restored some of MCU's good-faith with audiences.

However, I wonder if the pre-sales and tracking craziness of Doomsday was heavily/directly affected by BND'S perfomance. For me, it was always obvious that Doomsday was gonna be huge, because it's an Avengers movie with legacy characters. However, I didn't expect the surge of hype and craziness as it stands, so I guess that Brand New Day did help a lot.

What do you guys think?

Daily Box Office (October 21th 2026)

The market hits ¥18.7M/$2.80M today. Down -6% from yesterday and up -34% from last week.

Avengers: Doomsday Maoyan WTS

Doomsday Maoyan WTS compared to some of the biggest post covid movies and Endgame:

Avengers: Doomsday WTS Graph

Province map of the day:

Province Map 20.10.2026

Resident Evil mostly dominates today but the other 2 movies are gaining ground.

In Metropolitan cities:

Resident Evil wins Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Nanjing and Suzhou and Wuhan

City tiers:

Unchanged from yesterday

Tier 1: Resident Evil>Traces of Justice>Mr. & Mrs. Pardon

Tier 2: Resident Evil>Traces of Justice>Mr. & Mrs. Pardon

Tier 3: Resident Evil>Traces of Justice>Mr. & Mrs. Pardon

Tier 4: Resident Evil>Traces of Justice>Mr. & Mrs. Pardon

New releases marked in bold

Pre-Sales map for tomorrow

Pre-Sales 21.10

Resident Evil mostly dominates pre-sales for tomorrow.

IMAX Screenings distribution

Resident Evil continues to dominate IMAX screenings.

Resident Evil

Resident Evil grossed ¥5.66M/$0.85M on Tuesday.

Total gross hits ¥386.9M/$57.90M

Screen Distribution Split: Regular: $45.67M , IMAX: $10.21M , Rest: $1.99M

WoM figures:

Still no score on Maoyan.

Maoyan: , Taopiaopiao: 8.0 , Douban: 7.3

Scheduled showings update for Resident Evil for the next few days:

Traces of Justice

Traces of Justice in 2nd adds ¥5.20M/$0.78M today.

Total gross hits ¥578.2M/$86.41M

Screen Distribution Split: Regular: $84.76M , IMAX: $0.54M , Rest: $1.13M

WoM figures:

Maoyan: 9.6 , Taopiaopiao: 9.5 , Douban: 6.8

Scheduled showings update for Traces of Justice for the next few days:

Other:

Release Schedule:

A table including upcoming movies in the next month alongside trailers linked in the name of the movie, Want To See data from both Maoyan and Taopiaopiao alongside the Gender split and genre.

Remember Want To See is not pre-sales. Its just an anticipation metric. A checkbox of sorts saying your interested in an upcoming movie.

Not all movies are included since a lot are just too small to be worth covering.

Fall/Winter