https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2111626483345055816

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2111868233632379078

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2111808902975398196https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2111808902975398196

I know REP gets posted a lot here but this vibe winner thing he’s doing is just so funny to me because he just has nothing else and this doesn’t even make sense.

Likely D means 75-95% chance so it really means that it just barely hit that 75% bucket for the first time. House is at 93.8% chance, almost at the 95% chance to be rated safe D

Having an inheritance tax imo is based actually

DO NOT TRUST POLLS ANY MORE, THEY ARE ALL HERDING!!!

For sure Husted’s best poll in a while, it is interesting that they have red Ohio while D+4 Texas though

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-senate-talarico-paxton-poll/

I know there is a Pete lover somewhere in the subreddit. Where are you at? We need you in these dying times.

Also, tulsi, lol

Also I think it’s smart Dems put up their signs next to the signs for gas prices

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hv_SWp42nvg

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PKqMOG4q_D-LOSQ0ctG9h_1HOhNribJevRxvYbbBsKk/edit?usp=sharing

They also have LVs two points redder than RVs, the 5th poll in a row to show that. R+11 party ID

In 2027, three states will be holding gubernatorial elections:

- Kentucky

- Louisiana

- Mississippi

There is good reason to believe that any one of these could be dem victories, and could signal that polarization hasn’t passed the point of no return yet. These three races all have the potential to see nominations of populist moderate democrats.

First off, Kentucky. Andy Beshear is a popular incumbent governor who is term limited, and may also hold presidential ambitions. He would want to make sure that he is succeeded by another democrat, so that his executive accomplishments aren’t washed away by another Matt Bevin type Republican. Currently, the best pick for the democrats seems to be Rocky Adkins, former state representative who lost out to Beshear for the gubernatorial nomination in 2019. Rocky has a lot going for him. He’s a moderate democrat from Eastern Kentucky and he’s a public education proponent with strong connections to the state’s teachers’ unions whom hold quite a bit of power. He would be able to test the strength of Eastern Kentucky’s remaining ancestral democrats, as well as having a good appeal to retirees due to his strong support for pensions.

Second, Louisiana. There’s not much else to say other than the fact that this race will basically be decided on if John Bel Edwards runs. The previous governor who was term limited back in 2023, and so could not run, is now eligible for another run. He won his last two races pretty handily, and he’s pretty popular. I’d say he’d have the easiest win out of these three.

Third, Mississippi. Democrats seem to have made quite a lot of ground game in this state. Despite not receiving that much funding, this year’s senate race here has been much more competitive than expected, if only because of the underperformer incumbent. That being said, gains are still gains, and there are ways for MS dems to leverage this into actual electoral success. The incumbent governor is term limited, and thus this is a completely open race, more importantly, democrats have another stellar candidate at their disposal who will immediately make this race competitive if he decides to run. Brandon Presley, the previous democratic candidate back in 2023, who only lost by about 3 points. Another populist moderate, Presley is also related to Elvis, so he’s definitely got strong name recognition. I see fit to reason that this would be a strong chance for him to finally win the governorship.

Now, I do realize it is unlikely that all of these races swing this way, and also there needs to be the right conditions lined up for this to even happen (all three of these guys need to win their primaries after all), but it is still possible, and not that unlikely. I’d bet good money that under these conditions, at least 2/3 of these races swing to the democrats.