https://freebeacon.com/democrats/abdul-el-sayed-has-campaigned-three-times-with-9-11-truther-imam-who-served-in-iranian-propaganda-unit-helped-lead-think-tank-sanctioned-for-funding-hezbollah/

Gotta be honest I can’t see whatley coming back even in this scenario...

Germany:

1. FDP

2. CSU (if we're counting them seperately)

3. CDU

4. SPD

5. Die Grünen

6. AfD

7. Die Linke

8. BSW

United Kingdom:

1. Conservatives

2. Reform UK

3. Labour

4. Liberal Democrats

5. Green

6. Restore Britain

(not counting seperatists or regional parties)

France:

1. Rassemblement National

2. Les Républicains

3. Horizons

4. Renaissance

5. Mouvement Démocrate

6. Les Écologistes

7. Parti Socialiste

8. La France Insoumise

Italy:

1. Forza Italia

2. Fratelli D'Italia

3. Unione di Centro

4. Coraggio Italia

5. Noi Moderati

6. Lega

7. Azione

8. Centro Democratico

9. Italia Viva

10. Partito Democratico

11. Futuro Nazional

12. Movimento 5 Stelle

13. Sinistra Italiana

14. Europa Verde

15. +Europa

Spain:

1. Partido Popular

2. Vox

3. PSOE

4. Podemos

5. Sumar

(Not counting seperatist or regional parties cause holy shit does Spain have a lot of them)

Poland:

1. Nowa Polska

2. Demokracja Bezposrednia

3. PiS

4. KO

5. Rozjów+

6. PL2050

7. Unia Centrum

8. Koalicja Polska

9. Lewica

10. Konfederacja

11. Razem

12. KKP

Beginning to think so, many democrats genuinely don’t want either of these two candidates specifically to be the nominee.

​

My read on the Macro conditions is that we are in a D+7.5 to D+8 world, and overall turnout will be slightly lower than 2022.

My read on polling quality is that Democrats are being greatly overstimated in red states while they are likely being greatly underestimated in blue and slightly understimated in swing states.

I am taking polling somewhat more into account than my previous predictions, but it is a less important factor than candidate quality and, the most important factor in my predictions, state partisan lean.

I am taking polling more seriously in swing states than in red or blue states. For example: in Michigan the RCP average is showing an AES +2.6 victory. I believe that Democrats are probably being undercounted in Michigan so, I would bump up him up to 4.5 ish victory which implies a shift of 5.8 from 2024. This is entirely reasonable to me if you account for both the overall national swing combined with the fact that AES is not a very good candidate. If you go over to neighboring Ohio you see that the RCP average is showing a Brown 3.3 victory which implies an Ohio swing of 14.3 points. Do I think we live a world where both a Michigan 5.8 point swing and an Ohio 14.3 point swing coexist? The answer is no that does not pass the sniff test.

Onto the high profile races (rounding up to the nearest whole number):

1) Iowa: R+6

2) Kansas: R+7

3) Nebraska: R+6

4) Michigan: D+5

5) Ohio: R+4

6) Texas: R+3

7) Northa Carolina: D+9

8) Georgia: D+8

9) Maine: D+4

10) Alaska: R+3

11) Minnesota: D+9

Nevada Secretary of state early vote tracking dashboard:

https://www.nvsos.gov/vivid/

I have my gripes about AES, but I much prefer his style of campaigning. AES, as a Democrat actually attacks Trump/MAGA and we know for a fact if AES is elected will stand up against the administration. We have zero inclination of how Talarico will fight against Trump. In fact, Talarico has spent his time cozying up to Trump by repeatedly throwing the last democratic administration under the bus. What does that tell us about how, if elected, he will vote? Donald Trump is president, not Joe Biden. Trump and Vance have repeatedly attack Talarico and he’s done nothing but indirectly kiss their tail. He uses stronger language against Joe Biden than Trump. Vance even called talarico gay and weird. At least AES stands up for himself and his politics.

ALL HAIL THE GOOD EMPRESS!

SC-SEN 2026 Spending Advantage | AFI

1/5/15 margins

https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/2111847674127261840

https://x.com/civicapi/status/2111617695213056353?s=46