https://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/10/obama-atlanta-bottoms-ossoff/

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2112197768299131387

I'd say that I am probably just going to sleep lmao but wake up every 2 hours and stay awake if it's bluer than expected , if it's standard level blue then I suppose it's possible to get some sleep while Texas is being called .

I'd love to see crashouts though so I hope y'all post em here cuz I don't use x

-Mette Frederiksen's coalition, reaching from the marxist Red-Green Alliance to Lars Løkke's Moderates, has a commanding 11-point lead in a new poll, getting 55,5%.

-The Liberal Party, following internal disagreements over nitrogen regulations, drops to a historic low 6,8%.

-The Conservatives and Danish People's Party are neck-and-neck in the race to be the largest opposition party.

See the full poll here: https://voxmeter.dk/meningsmalinger/#ekstra_info

Ohio is more inelastic than Texas imo. Talarico pulls it off by more than Brown.

I think Collins has the juice to pull it off one last time, especially since Troy isn't charismatic enough and i think she'll outperform polls again.

Iowa has been showing consistent D-leads and I think Sand can pull Turek over + high gas/diesel prices + legacy of Ernst + good polls for Turek

I'm a Blansas believer. I think it's too little too late from Marshall. My head is saying Marshall does it but my gut says Hamilton will do it.

Mississippi will go to a runoff but I think CHS pulls it off in the end (and in this round in terms of plurality votes).

South Carolina is too inelastic, I don't think it'll ever flip dem.

Louisana dem is running a good campaign apparently + callais increased black turnout + race has been pretty under-reported imo, the dem gets it below solid.

Florida won't be as republican as people think but Nixon has no shot. Arkansas could have been a sleeper flip but her race is getting nationalised and Cotton is dumping money, taking it seriously. Idt Shoffler breaks the time loop this time, sorry.

Last month too in Wales a Reform UK MS defected to Plaid Cymru.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq398dgkdg8xo

Hello [r/YAPms](r/YAPms)! As we approach the decisive week of 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election, things are finally taking off in the match up between President Bolsonaro’s son and 4th mandate seeker President Lula.

A couple of things to consider here:

1. Lula’s surge in recent polls is heavily tied to the approval of the so called “PEC da 6x1”. In Brazil, it is common that retails and restaurants have a 6day work week. After major political coordination between the Senate and Lula’s government, the work week is now reduced to 5 days for majority of workers. This is heavy news and boosted Lula quite a lot.
2. Between Oct 10-11, Lula had major rallies in the two largest cities in Brasil, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, and finally galvanised his supporters after a disastrous first round with many campaign problems. This is also reflected in the majority of the polls.
3. However, we can see here that despite everything, Flávio is still ahead and started to fight back after many complaints about a “already won” climate in his campaign. He also had a huge rallies in São Paulo and in Salvador (capital of Bahia, largest PT’s Stronghold).

- For the third point, I argue that today’s atlas has polled from Oct 13-18. So the following points, that were bad news for Lula’s hasn’t been properly captured by this poll. Poder Data poll, for example only polled during this weekend and showcased a recovery from Flávio.
3.1) Despite intending to boost his approval on his major weakness, public safety, Lula wasn’t able to approve a major reform on the area, mainly because the opposition wanted to include a clause lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 14 years. Senators from PT were afraid that Lula would loose votes if they were against this clause, but wanted approve another one lowering to 16 years, heinous crimes only.

The government intervened and asked them to not do so, because that would mean the entire project returning to the House of Representatives, delaying the approval. With the confusion, President of Senate Davi Alcolumbre removed the reform from the agenda.

3.2) On Saturday’s night, Roberta Luchsinger, lobbyist involved in social security fraudulent contracts and business partner of Lula’s son Fabio Luis, gave an exclusive interview to CNN Brazil framing Lula on live TV. After being called scoundrel by Lula on the first round, Roberta told that Lula allegedly knew the negotiations that his son was partaking with his Chief of Staff Marcola. Roberta also gave details about Fabio Luis meeting Lula’s Ministers to win overpriced contracts with the government. One example was the one which a Portuguese company that won the tunnel between Santos and Guarujá contract.

Roberta also told that if something happens to her, it is Lula’s fault. She is keen to take a plea bargain framing Lula and his son.

I will refrain myself from talking about the terrible presidential debate my fellow Brazilians had to witness yesterday. If you thought Trump vs Biden was bad, you know nothing. Electoral effects of this debate are yet to be seen so no need to speculate right now.

2020: Biden +1.8

2016: Trump +0.1

https://backend.natpublicaffairs.com/media/Iowa_General_Election_Memo_101526.3.pdf

Blue = More Democratic Gubernatorial, More Republican Presidentially

Red = More Red Gubernatorial, More Democratic Presidentially

Link to the actual poll statistics

Republicans are in a rough spot in 2028 obviously as they have the unpopular incumbent in office who's vice president is the frontrunner for the nomination who has about a 42% approval rating, they seem bound to lose barring a Democratic nominee having a scandal, who would they want to run after 2028? Personally I think their best options is McCormick, Scott or Cox, even if they are very unlikely to run.

Liberals/Nationals + One Nation = 4 years of tomfoolery