r/TrueDoTA2 • u/Complex-Bend-2827 • 52m ago
Necrophos ruins more drafts than any other hero on 7.41f. Stuff I learned building a draft tool on 8.7M games
i've always been bad at drafting, so for the last 2 months i've been building a draft overlay trained on 8.7M ancient-divine games (7.41e/f). along the way the data told me some things i didn't expect:
the draft alone calls the winner in ~59% of games. a coin flip is 50%. so the draft matters a lot more than the "just play your hero" people think, but way less than the "gg draft diff" people think
necrophos is the hero that ruins the most picks. he's the worst matchup for WK (both pos 1 and pos 3), DK (mid and off), and he's in the top threats for half the carries
PL is a trap blind pick. strong hero, but tidehunter, axe and ES all destroy him. tide alone is -6.3%. last pick him, never first pick
dawnbreaker and nyx are the safest first picks right now. zero hard counters among the 40 most picked heroes. you can't really get punished for picking them early
OD is the best blind mid. the only real counter among popular heroes is PL
the overlay sits next to the pick screen, suggests heroes for your role based on picks/bans, and once you lock in shows how your hero fits (best/worst ally, who to watch out for). it just reads the screen + valve's official GSI, doesn't touch game files or memory. screenshots in my r/dota2 post: https://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/1xcwxn0/im_so_ass_at_drafting_that_i_built_a_tool_that/
i'm opening a small closed beta, if you want a spot: https://tally.so/r/rDjJ2p
two questions: 1. which of these is wrong in your bracket? 2. what's the draft situation you always mess up? (last pick, counter vs synergy, banning, etc)