r/NewColdWar • • Jun 15 '26

Analysis/Video Frank Dikötter And The True History Of Communist China

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10 Upvotes

Senior Fellow Frank Dikötter, a renowned historian of modern China, joins Uncommon Knowledge to discuss his new book, Red Dawn over China: How Communism Conquered a Quarter of Humanity with host Peter M. Robinson. Drawing from tightly controlled Chinese Communist Party archives and Soviet Comintern documents, Dikötter systematically dismantles decades of romanticized Western myths—originally popularized by journalist Edgar Snow—surrounding the rise of Mao Zedong. He details how the Chinese Communist Party was a deeply unpopular, marginal movement that was heavily armed by Joseph Stalin rather than gaining organic peasant support, eventually taking the country through the devastation of civil war and the Red Army’s strategic handover of Manchuria. Shifting to modern-day geopolitics, the conversation explores how the “enforced amnesia” around this history shapes the systemic constraints of China's current single-party state. Dikötter analyzes the vulnerabilities behind the CCP’s economic facade, Xi Jinping's relentless military purges, the critical importance of arming Taiwan, and why the West must counter a regime built on deep-seated political paranoia.


r/NewColdWar • • Sep 12 '26

Iran U.S. Links Chinese Satellite Imagery to Iranian Strike That Killed Three Troops

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16 Upvotes

Before Iran carried out its attack that killed three U.S. troops in July, Tehran acquired high-resolution satellite images of the base in Jordan from Chinese entities, according to U.S. officials familiar with details of the incident.

It is the clearest evidence so far that Chinese support for Iran during the war has had lethal consequences for U.S. forces, according to the officials, who say the U.S. has connected the imagery to the attack.

The U.S. officials declined to identify the Chinese entities that supplied the imagery to Iran and didn’t allege direct involvement by Beijing. Tehran procured the images both before and after the attack.

But the finding could deepen U.S.-China tensions ahead of the planned summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Sept. 24, after months of frustration with Beijing’s rejection of U.S. warnings about Chinese companies providing imagery to Iran.

Senior U.S. officials raised the imagery linked to the July 17 attack with their Chinese counterparts, who pushed back and demanded proof, the U.S. officials said. China has repeatedly dismissed Washington’s concerns, refusing to acknowledge that any Chinese companies are engaged in such activity, the officials said.

China’s Foreign Ministry has accused “certain entities” of trying to link Beijing to the conflict.

In the July 17 attack, Iranian ballistic missiles struck a housing area at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in northeastern Jordan where American troops had been sleeping. Three soldiers were killed and four others were wounded and medically evacuated. Iran also targeted manned and unmanned aircraft at the base, other U.S. officials said.

The attack was one of three separate missile strikes on the base in 24 hours and marked a significant escalation in the war. The strike resulted in the first U.S. deaths since an April ceasefire, and exposed the difficulty of protecting U.S. forces even at a heavily defended installation. It also raised alarms about Iran’s improved ability to hit American targets.

The strikes on the base came after senior Trump officials spent months warning their Chinese counterparts that Chinese companies were providing satellite imagery Iran could use to target U.S. personnel and assets in the region, officials say. The Trump administration sanctioned several Chinese companies in May, saying that supplying satellite imagery to Iran “threatens American and partner personnel.”

Within three days of the July attack, Iran released high-resolution images showing damage to three separate areas of the base. Publicly available lower-resolution satellite imagery analyzed by The Wall Street Journal showed damage to more than 20 structures across the three areas of the base.

Trump has told his team that it is a priority for him to maintain good relations with China and Xi in particular. Senior U.S. officials have responded by trying to avoid public confrontations with Beijing that could overshadow or derail plans for the summit. A White House official said no assistance Iran was receiving from outside actors had enhanced its ability to attack the United States, without addressing the finding.

Publicly, senior Trump officials have played down the impact of any Chinese assistance to Iran. Days after the July 17 attack, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Asked afterward if the Chinese were providing Iran with targeting information, he declined to answer directly, saying “nothing that China has done has in any way changed the trajectory of the conflict.”

Earlier in the war, U.S. attacks on Iranian radar, satellites and other equipment degraded the regime’s ability to see the battlefield. Iran often hit locations of lesser military significance where nothing significant was located—an indication that Iran didn’t have a clear picture of U.S. bases.

However, the targeting appeared to improve over the summer, officials say.

Fresh, high-resolution images from Chinese sources could reveal recent changes at a base and help Iran “select the most impactful targets in a timely manner,” said Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst who specialized in Iran’s military and weapons. Post-strike imagery could help Iran assess the effectiveness of the strikes and decide whether and where to attack again.

The imagery likely would have been one of several intelligence streams used by Iran, analysts and former officials say. Iran’s military also draws from its own satellites and human sources, as well as intelligence and imagery from Russia, according to U.S. officials.

The imagery is part of a broader flow of Chinese technology and data used by Iran, including navigation services, and components used in drones and missiles. Taken together, it “starts to look pretty substantial” in improving Iran’s long-range strike capabilities, says Lamson.

Unlike some of the other intelligence available to Iran, Chinese technology and imagery are areas Washington can try to disrupt through sanctions and pressure on Beijing, officials say.

U.S. officials are also concerned that China could be helping Iran stalk American naval assets as well, according to people familiar with the matter. In recent days, Iran has fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. aircraft carrier and other warships. While Central Command said all the attacks failed, officials described some as close calls and said Iran’s ability to target moving ships appeared to be improving.

China’s satellite industry often blurs the line between commercial and state companies, U.S. officials and analysts say, because even ostensibly private companies operate under extensive government oversight, and many have links to the government or the Chinese Communist Party.

In May, the Trump administration sanctioned three Chinese companies—MizarVision, Earth Eye and Chang Guang—that it said was providing, collecting or publishing imagery that Iran could use to target U.S. forces. State Department officials last year accused Chang Guang of providing satellite imagery that directly supported attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, calling the support “unacceptable.”

The administration has briefed lawmakers on the intelligence committees in recent weeks on the support both Russia and China are providing to Iran, according to congressional officials.


r/NewColdWar • • 14h ago

Terrorism Iran’s Post-Khamenei Mobilization and Central Asian Jihadist Responses - Jamestown

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3 Upvotes

Executive Summary:

Iran transformed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei into a state-sponsored campaign of ideological mobilization by invoking the Twelver Shi’a doctrine of Ya Latharat al-Hussein.

Iran uses this doctrine to frame revenge against the United States and Israel—including calls to assassinate U.S. President Donald Trump—as a religious obligation rather than merely a political objective.

While the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) employed Khamenei’s martyrdom to reinforce cohesion, Central Asian supporters of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and al-Qaeda overwhelmingly celebrated his death, exposing the enduring sectarian divide between Iran’s revolutionary Shi’a ideology and Sunni Salafi-jihadism.

The contrasting responses demonstrate that Iran’s proxy network, ISKP, and al-Qaeda-aligned Central Asian jihadists remain ideologically distinct threat ecosystems, despite their shared hostility toward the United States and Israel.


r/NewColdWar • • 1d ago

Active Measures Russia’s “Fifth Column” in Europe: Why the Fight Against Doppelgänger Must Evolve into a Strategy to Dismantle the Kremlin’s Influence Infrastructure

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11 Upvotes

The exposure of the management system behind the Russian disinformation network Doppelgänger indicates that the Kremlin views the European Union’s information space as a full-fledged theater of hybrid operations. Their purpose is not merely to discredit Ukraine or disseminate anti-Western narratives, but also to gradually weaken European states’ ability to make coordinated strategic decisions concerning Russia.


r/NewColdWar • • 14h ago

Taiwan China & Taiwan Update, October 23, 2026

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1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

PRC Election Interference in Taiwan: Taiwanese national security and policy officials are reporting increased People’s Republic of China (PRC) influence operations using AI-generated content and cyberattacks to increase polarization, reduce public trust in the Taiwanese government, and reduce voter turnout. These influence operations will likely continue to increase in the lead-up to Taiwan’s November 28 local elections.

PLAN Modernization: The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) conducted live-fire combat training drills using four Type 071 Landing Platform Deck ships designed to support amphibious landing operations on October 14. PRC state media highlighted the use of these vessels in operations in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait. This unusual exercise formation and training activity was likely intended to intimidate the Philippines into reducing or stopping its maritime activities near disputed South China Sea features.


r/NewColdWar • • 2d ago

Espionage Pentagon looks to build a deep-cover spy program to confront China

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20 Upvotes

The Pentagon is looking to build a more robust deep-cover spying program to conduct economic warfare against China and other U.S. competitors, according to half a dozen people familiar with the initiative.

This new next-generation spying program — in which U.S. operatives would go undercover as businesspeople or other private-sector personnel, without any overt U.S. government affiliation — is intended to be a covert prong of the Pentagon’s larger economic warfare campaign, the people said.

This new spy program of “nonofficial cover officers,” or NOCs, is being overseen by Tom Rakusan, a 39-year CIA veteran and now senior adviser to Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg, according to those familiar with it, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive initiative.

Rakusan, who retired from the CIA in 2021, rose to deputy director of operations — the CIA’s top spy runner — in 2017. He later led the CIA’s response to Russia’s election-interference campaign in the 2016 presidential election.

After leaving the agency, Rakusan joined Cerberus Capital Management, the private equity firm co-founded by Feinberg, and followed the billionaire to the Pentagon in 2025.

Experts from within the Pentagon’s service branches and Office of the Under Secretary of War for Intelligence and Security, as well as retired CIA officials, have been pulled in to work on the initiative, people familiar with the program said.

The program is in the planning phase and is not operational, they said.

Where it will sit inside the Pentagon is unclear, said multiple individuals familiar with the planning. The effort might function as a new, stand-alone deep-cover unit, or an enhancement and expansion of existing Pentagon clandestine human intelligence-gathering capabilities.

The Defense Department, in response to questions from The Washington Post, denied such an initiative is underway. “This query appears to be built on information that is simply not true,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Jacob Bliss said in a statement. “Whoever is feeding you these claims are either badly misinformed or deliberately leading you astray to paddle [sic] their fantasies.”

The CIA declined to comment. Rakusan did not respond to a request for comment.

Congressional committees do not appear to have been briefed on the initiative.

The Trump administration has embraced economic warfare as a key tool of statecraft. It has imposed tariffs and export controls, made investments in critical U.S. resources and technologies, coordinated with private capital to shore up support for key components of the defense-industrial base, and prioritized economic intelligence.

In a September speech, CIA Deputy Director Michael Ellis said the United States is broadening its espionage against China, targeting Chinese companies in such areas as artificial intelligence, biotechnology and advanced semiconductors. While U.S. intelligence agencies have long spied on key Chinese firms, Ellis’s public discussion of the CIA’s shifting priorities was an unusual disclosure by a high-ranking agency official.

Ellis’s predecessor as CIA deputy, David S. Cohen, argued in a recent article published in Foreign Affairs that the U.S. intelligence community should go a step further. The U.S. should end a long-standing prohibition on sharing economic secrets gathered via espionage with U.S. companies working on advanced technology to give them a competitive advantage, he wrote.

“We have been collecting economically sensitive information for years and years,” Cohen said in an interview. “We should not be hung up on whether we should be providing [U.S. companies] a commercial advantage,” although there would have to be oversight to guard against favoritism or corruption in choosing which firms benefit. Cohen said he was unaware of the Pentagon NOC initiative.

Some of the Pentagon’s economic-warfare-related activities have been overt. Feinberg announced the formation of an Economic Defense Unit this year as part of a drive toward “deterring, denying, disrupting, and helping to defeat adversaries through economic means,” according to a memo Feinberg wrote to senior Pentagon officials announcing the unit’s formation. DefenseScoop first reported on the EDU memo.

Feinberg tapped George Kollitides, another Cerberus alumnus and senior adviser at the Pentagon, to run the EDU in February. That office has since announced hundreds of millions of dollars in public investments in refineries and mining interests domestically and abroad. One deal used $750 million in Pentagon funds to help secure a major deposit of rare earth minerals in Brazil.

Alongside the Pentagon’s public-facing economic-warfare-related mandates, Rakusan is overseeing the planned build-out of the clandestine component.

Multiple individuals familiar with the program said the EDU was once seen as the potential home for this enhanced deep-cover initiative. But the increased press and congressional scrutiny directed toward the EDU and its investments — and the possibility that such attention will only increase if Democrats retake Congress in November — has led to an abandonment of that idea, said one person familiar with the current planning.

Not all of Rakusan’s former colleagues are enthusiastic about the new effort. “Rakusan just wants to build his own CIA down in the Pentagon,” said a former senior CIA official familiar with the discussions around the program.

Rakusan is a polarizing figure among some of his former agency colleagues, but he is lauded by many for his operational aggressiveness and prowess.

He was “a pipe swinger,” recalled a White House official from the first Trump administration, keen to hit the Russians back hard after their 2016 interference in the U.S. presidential election.

Rakusan undertook high-wire operations throughout his CIA career, traveling in Iraq on a Czech passport, according to former officials, and was similarly supportive of subordinates undertaking risky missions.

The reaction inside Langley to the Pentagon initiative has been frosty, according to the former agency official. The CIA has traditionally been resistant to other agencies stepping on what it perceives as its core human-spying turf, insisting that such efforts be coordinated under the CIA chief of station in the country concerned.

The move to augment the Pentagon’s capabilities comes as the CIA’s own NOC program has withered away, former agency officials say. Operating under nonofficial cover is considered particularly risky because officers in the program cannot work out of American embassies or other U.S. government facilities, and they cannot claim diplomatic immunity if detained.

A covid-era internal CIA report revealed that roughly 75 percent of all deep-cover agency officers would be eligible for retirement by the mid-2020s, another former CIA official said. These veteran NOCs are now retiring without new ones being trained to replace them — a sort of quiet death by attrition, former officials say. Despite recent efforts to rethink the program, very few actual deep-cover CIA officers remain in the field, they said.

The agency’s NOC program has waxed and waned over the decades, with ambitious plans for expansion frequently giving way to a chastening, after agency difficulties in scaling up such initiatives — usually because of inadequate training or mismanagement of young deep-cover officers.

One such attempt in the 2000s, championed by Congress’s intelligence committees and known inside the CIA as the Global Deployment Initiative, was a particularly acute example of this dynamic, former intelligence officials say, because of the proposed size and rapidity of the NOC buildup and insufficient oversight of it. The program collapsed, with many young NOCs being forced to go “inside” the building at CIA or leave the agency.

The Defense Department has had its own long-standing struggles with fielding deep-cover spies.

The Defense Intelligence Agency and Joint Special Operations Command, among other Pentagon elements, have long experimented with commercial-cover operations, with decidedly mixed results.

In one illustrative post-9/11 case, a group of Joint Special Operations Command-affiliated NOCs operating in a remote corner of Africa had their cover exposed when they stumbled upon a group of geologists and engineers who began asking questions about their activities, according to an investigation by the High Side, a Substack focused on special operations and intelligence.

The NOCs were posing as employees of a mining company but had no real knowledge of the subject — which quickly became apparent to the actual experts with whom they were speaking.

The NOCs somehow talked their way out of the jam, and the Joint Special Operations Command later began sending its commercial-cover operatives to specialized schools to undertake crash courses in their supposed areas of expertise, according to the High Side.

The Pentagon faces multiple challenges with deep-cover spying, former officials say. Military service records are difficult to hide, and the rise of biometrics and other “digital dust” means working under alias has become increasingly fraught. Plus, the martial bearing of many undercover Pentagon operatives makes them often easy to spot.

The legal remit under which the new economic-warfare-focused deep-cover spy program might operate remains murky, the people familiar said.

The military’s Title 10 authorities allow for “Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield,” which the Pentagon has interpreted to allow a broad swath of espionage-related activities, including some far afield from narrow battlefield intelligence, former officials say.

U.S. intelligence agencies such as the CIA operate under Title 50 authorities, which govern their abilities to collect intelligence and conduct covert actions abroad.

The new Pentagon NOC initiative would likely function as a sort of “Title 60” entity, said multiple former officials — a half-joking reference to a nonexistent hybrid legal authority combining elements of Title 10 and Title 50.

The effort also reflects shifting power dynamics inside the Trump administration, with an ascendant Pentagon seeking a record budget of $1.5 trillion.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe has promised a more muscular approach to recruiting human sources overseas and stealing adversaries’ secrets. But some former officials say the CIA remains cautious about undertaking aggressive spying operations, with an assertive Pentagon willing to shoulder greater risks.

The Pentagon “has a lot of money and a lot of authorities and a lot of capabilities,” a former senior CIA official said. “And God bless ’em.”


r/NewColdWar • • 2d ago

International Relations Iran lauds ties with Russia, contradicting Trump's claim of little Russian support for Tehran

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12 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 2d ago

Analysis Visualization: PLAN Activity Around Japan - Taiwan Security Monitor

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7 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 2d ago

Kremlin payment firm A7 has been pumping billions in ‘untraceable’ cash into global financial system

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6 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 2d ago

☢ Nuclear Putin Makes Nuclear Threats Over Kaliningrad - Jamestown

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10 Upvotes

Executive Summary:

The Kremlin threatened to use nuclear weapons against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) if the Alliance attempts to cut off its Kaliningrad exclave from mainland Russia following several military exercises near the oblast’s borders. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on Russia to cease nuclear threats and emphasized NATO’s purely defensive nature in response.

Kaliningrad’s regional identity and pro-European orientation, relative to the rest of Russia, have increasingly clashed with Moscow’s policies as the Russian economy deteriorates. The Kremlin eliminated regional political parties in 2001 and transformed the exclave into a heavily militarized outpost facing NATO.

Putin’s nuclear threats over Kaliningrad appear aimed at portraying Russia as under siege while obscuring the Kremlin’s role in tensions with NATO, including its war against Ukraine and hybrid war against the European Union. Despite Moscow’s claims, NATO military action against the exclave remains extremely unlikely absent a major Russian escalation.


r/NewColdWar • • 2d ago

International Relations How Is Security Influence Evolving Across the Pacific?

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2 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 3d ago

Taiwan US Marines Plan First NMESIS Deployment to Yonaguni, Bringing Sea Denial Closer to Taiwan - Defence Security Asia

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3 Upvotes

The planned first NMESIS deployment to Yonaguni during Keen Sword 27 would position mobile anti-ship missiles near Taiwan’s northeastern maritime approaches, testing US-Japan coordination and island logistics.


r/NewColdWar • • 3d ago

International Relations Greece a ‘priority’ in US security architecture

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5 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 4d ago

News US sanctions 5 Chinese entities over ex-Google engineer’s AI trade secrets theft

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10 Upvotes

“[…] Firms include Shanghai Zhisuan Technology, founded by former Google software engineer Ding Linwei, MiraclePlus and three related entities. […]”


r/NewColdWar • • 4d ago

Ukraine/Russia War Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19, 2026

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2 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian officials continue to report disruptions to US assistance to Ukraine.

Devastating Russian drone and missile strikes on the night of October 18 to 19 heavily damaged energy and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine — killing at least four and wounding at least 55.

Daytime Russian strikes are also inflicting significant civilian casualties.

The Kremlin is reportedly pushing for a trilateral meeting between the United States, Russia, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), likely as part of a dual-pronged effort to present itself as a diplomatic peer while supporting structures that challenge Western-led international organizations.

Recent aggressive Russian military satellite maneuvers are a continuation of Russia’s space policy against third country satellites since at least 2022.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Lyman tactical area, east of Dobropillya, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.


r/NewColdWar • • 4d ago

Iran Iran Update, October 19, 2026

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1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

The Houthis are adopting new tactics to bypass Saudi air defenses, including launching various munitions at Saudi targets simultaneously and targeting locations without air defense coverage, according to an unspecified senior US official briefed on Saudi air defense efforts speaking to the Wall Street Journal on October 18.

The Houthis’ strike tactics against Saudi Arabia demonstrate how Iran and the Axis of Resistance are learning and sharing tactics to more effectively bypass adversary air defenses. This does not necessarily mean that the Houthis learned these tactics from Iran, however.

The Houthis are deploying reinforcements to Taiz Governorate, likely to try to break Yemeni government defenses surrounding Taiz City. The Houthis have attempted to make multiple advances near the city in recent days, but Yemeni government-aligned forces have largely repelled these advances.

The Iranian regime’s appointment of Mehrdad Akhlaghi, who has extensive experience in missile technology, as Iran’s new defense minister indicates that the regime is prioritizing the reconstitution of its missile program. Akhlaghi stated that the regime will rebuild its defense industrial base in areas that are less vulnerable to airstrikes.

The Iraqi federal government probably agreed to grant three Iranian-backed Iraqi militias control of some government ministries as part of a broader disarmament agreement between the Iraqi federal government and Iranian-backed Iraqi factions. These Iranian-backed Iraqi militias will likely continue to circumvent the Iraqi government’s disarmament efforts even after receiving control of some Iraqi ministries, however.


r/NewColdWar • • 4d ago

Strategy US cannot afford to be left out of Central Asia

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6 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 5d ago

☢ Nuclear The Strategic Case for an Israel-Taiwan Nuclear Axis

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4 Upvotes

Small States Facing Existential Security Threats Cannot Afford to Outsource Deterrence


r/NewColdWar • • 5d ago

Business/Economics The U.S. is not moving fast enough to break its critical mineral dependence, says former energy diplomat

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22 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 6d ago

☢ Nuclear Russia Deepens Role in Brazil’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle - Jamestown

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3 Upvotes

Archived Article

Executive Summary:

Russia has expanded its nuclear cooperation with Brazil this year, increasing uranium processing contracts by 25 percent and becoming Brazil’s largest uranium supplier.

Moscow is moving beyond uranium exports toward deeper integration into Brazil’s nuclear fuel cycle, including conversion, enrichment, and potentially domestic uranium extraction.

Rosatom—Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy corporation—is seeking to broaden its presence in Brazil through critical mineral projects, small modular reactors, and potential participation in nuclear power plant construction.

Brazil’s plans to expand nuclear generating capacity present new opportunities for Moscow, but financing constraints and Brasília’s pursuit of technological sovereignty could limit Russia’s ambitions.


r/NewColdWar • • 6d ago

Ukraine/Russia War Zelensky: Starlink Speed Cap at 161 km/h Halts Interceptors (causing terminals to shut down and crash interceptor drones targeting Russian jet-powered Shahed munitions.)

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17 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 6d ago

North Korea Brewing Korea Crisis? Mines, Missiles, & POWs

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7 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 7d ago

Iran Iran Update, October 16, 2026

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1 Upvotes

Key Takeaways

The Iranian regime has reportedly found ways to ship a very limited and relatively inconsequential amount of petroleum product exports via maritime routes despite the US naval blockade. Iran’s ability to export energy products continues to be severely hampered by the US economic campaign, however.

The Houthis are using imitative communications deception in an attempt to disrupt Yemeni government-aligned forces’ command and control and hinder government efforts to defend Taiz City.

Yemeni government-aligned forces regained control of Dhubab Airport on the southern Red Sea coastal plain by October 15.

Yemeni government-aligned forces are likely continuing to gradually advance further north and west in Marib Governorate along a major ground line of communication (GLOC) extending to Sanaa, Yemen’s capital.


r/NewColdWar • • 7d ago

Analysis China’s Weaponization of Dual-Use Research Vessels for Undersea Data Dominance

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11 Upvotes

r/NewColdWar • • 7d ago

Ukraine/Russia War Order to limit Starshield for Ukraine came from inside White House, sources say

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14 Upvotes