i feel this option is realistic, given nbis history, it has to go above 200$ before dec and that would be profitable for me. the way to read this heatmap is the profit if the stock goes for example to 202.5 on the 23th nov is 1198$, which is decent, thats 50+%.
the trade: i bought 2 contracts of the 15 jan 2027 $230 call at $10.45 each, total cost $2,090. nbis is sitting around $165 right now, so 200 is about +21%. i picked a far expiry on purpose so i’m not racing the clock, and nbis has a history of big runs and sharp pullbacks, so a push to 200+ doesn’t seem crazy to me.
some numbers from the heatmap : on nov 23, a stock price of 197.5 gives about +$798 (38%), 202.5 gives +$1,198 (57%) and 205 gives +$1,410 (67%). so on that date i’d be in my target range anywhere from roughly 197 to 205.
this option doesn’t mean that i think i will only sell when it goes to 240$. the break-even at expiry is $240.45, but i don’t plan to hold that long. the option gains value on the way up, so i can profit well before it reaches 240. i just want to profit around 35-70% from it, which is about $730-$1,460, and i’ll sell somewhere in that range instead of waiting for the perfect top.
what i’m aware of: timing matters a lot. at $200 the same option is worth about +$996 on nov 23, but only +$546 on dec 2 and roughly break-even by mid dec, because of time decay. the heatmap also assumes iv stays flat, and nbis earnings usually come in november, my plan is to cut it if i profit 50-75%