link

Highlights:

• Anthropic is offering Blackstone a yield ‌of more than 10% to anchor a $9 billion junior slice of a $60 billion debt package arranged by Broadcom
•  The senior $42 billion piece of that package covers roughly a third of Anthropic's $125.2 billion, five-year commitment to lease Google's TPUs
• Broadcome designs and supplies Anthropic's chips. It has agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion through convertible notes that can turn into Anthropic equity

It is expected to be the largest chip financing to date and a test of investor appetite in AI debt at a time when lenders are nervous about tech companies' heavy borrowingand spending.

Everyone keeps saying this week was just regular profit taking or people rotating out of mega-cap tech, but look at the credit side.

On Tuesday Chamath tweeted that bond chart showing CoreWeave's debt yields blowing out, Musk replied, and then by Wednesday the stock dropped 15% in a single session. What's crazy is that CoreWeave hasn't missed a payment and they supposedly have like 100 billion dollars in backlogged deals with Microsoft and Meta.

The problem isn't demand it's how this whole buildout is fiananced... These guys asically took on 50 billion dollars in debt using GPUs as collateral planning to lease them out... That prints money when rates are 0 or dropping but after that hot inflation print, bond markets panicked about refinancing costs. CDS jumped to pricing in something like 60% default proability over 5 years.

When the private credit backing the hardware landlords starts shaking, fund managers sell the entire supply chain. That's why Nvidia AMD, and the broad indexes took a hit without any actual bad earnings news.

Seems like a rates problem pretending to be a tech problem. Anyone else following the private credit side of this or do you think hyperscalers just step in and bail out the compute providers if yields stay this high?

My investment thesis is basically: buy, log out, touch grass, and check back in a month. Shit has to go up eventually, right?

At some point, surely these dips become buying opportunities rather than reasons to panic. I obviously know timing the market is impossible, and things could absolutely fall further. But if you're investing for the long term, does it really make sense to sit on the sidelines trying to guess the bottom?

I am full cash right now and getting these: Micron MU, Marvell MRVL, Nvidia NVDA, Intel INTC, SK hynix SKHY, Coreweave CRWV.

Data source is Bloomberg Terminal.

According to Michael Burry, GPU depreciation should be 2-3 years. However, it's been 4 years already and H100 GPUs are still rising in rental value.

Blackwell GPU rental rates have hit a record high in October, up 63% YoY.

OpenRouter's data shows that token usage is on an exponential curve currently: https://openrouter.ai/rankings

AI hardware companies win no matter if people use OpenAI/Anthropic or open source models. All models require hardware to run.

For those who believe that the market is overreacting and the underlying demand is stronger than ever, then it's a good opportunity to buy CoreWeave/NeoClouds/AI hardware companies.

sources:

https://ibb.co/G4nnpw1S

https://ibb.co/Qvth1CjX

Borr Drilling insider Tor Olav Trøim bought 750,000 shares of $BORR on 10/14 for an estimated $3,542,550.

Estimated price paid: about $4.72/share

Insiders have traded $BORR on the open market 23 times in the past 6 months.

Of those 23 trades, 17 were purchases and only 6 were sales, so insiders are buying at almost a 3:1 ratio.

Insiders have to file their open-market trades with the SEC, and the IHFG insider tracker flags these purchases as the filings come in.

Source: insomniachedge.com

MSCI has frozen certain upward changes to its Turkish equity indexes, citing concerns about free-float estimates, beneficial ownership transparency, and coordinated trading.

If sufficient progress is not evident by June 2027, MSCI may consider reclassifying Turkey from Emerging Market to Frontier or Standalone Market status.

The potential implications for international investors include changes to index-tracking fund allocations and demand for Turkish equities.

MSCI announcement can be read here

Bloomberg's article can be read here

Coreweave I understand. If I’m not mistaken they don’t even own data centre. They rent them from third party companies like APLD. Nebius is obviously the best one with healthy debt compared to corewave. And then there is IREN who own the land and power which in itself should be worth a lot. Their debt is also much better than Coreweave.

I am not knowledgeable enough in this sector. I mean it does take a lot of capex to build a data centre before you see any meaningful revenue from it

How can global jaugernaut Samsung which generates tens of billions in actual net profit be valued at half the price of a software startup Anthropic selling future promises? Recently Samsung reported a record-breaking operating PROFIT (not revenue) of $80 billion in just one quarter thanks to AI memory chips demand. In stark contrast, Anthropic announced a quarterly REVENUE (not profit) of just $16.8 billion over the same period. How does public market logic justify pricing a capital-heavy giant with historic cash flows at $1 trillion, while private investors and underwriters prep a private AI research lab with a fraction of that top-line revenue for a staggering $2 trillion valuation?

Does this stark valuation gap signal that the market now values pure AI optionality and exponential scaling potential far more than established physical production and proven profitability? Are investors pricing Anthropic on the assumption that frontier foundation models will eventually capture and monetize entire sectors of the global economy, making current revenue numbers irrelevant? Or is this immense discrepancy a warning sign of an unsustainable market bubble driven by hype, where hardware enablers and actual revenue generators are heavily discounted compared to speculative AI platforms?

I think the first beneficiaries of faster AI hardware refreshes may be the firms that can put old components back to work. A server leaving its original rack isn't necessarily scrap, and its depreciation schedule doesn't tell us when it gets shredded.

Sims (ASX: SGM) is what got me interested. Its lifecycle business recovers DDR4 memory for redeployment and offers recertified GPUs. In FY2026 it processed 16.8M repurposed units, up 90.9%. Management also credits stronger DDR4 resale prices. There's actual component reuse here, rather than just a forecast of more electronic waste.

That price benefit is also where my confidence stops. A business can handle more equipment while earning less on each sale. More supply of used parts helps only if buyers still want them at workable prices.

I'd separate a scrap-copper reseller such as MWYN from that reuse thesis. Its May–July 2026 quarter produced about $28K of gross profit on $570K of materials sales, roughly 5%. Higher copper prices alone don't tell us whether that purchase-to-sale spread improves. I'd want evidence of better spreads and cash conversion before calling materials trading the same opportunity.

Iron Mountain (IRM) has another route through its equipment decommissioning and remarketing platform. Handling the refresh itself could have value even when recovered prices weaken, although remarketing still leaves it exposed to those prices.

My tentative preference is for recovery firms with buyers for reusable parts, rather than a thesis based only on more scrap becoming available. The bear case is straightforward: faster refreshes flood the used market, or customers postpone upgrades and less equipment arrives at all.

If DDR4 resale prices fall while processing volumes keep rising, would you still expect Sims' lifecycle business to grow profits? That's the assumption I'd most want to challenge.

Throughout my long investment journey, the stock I held for the shortest time and that yielded the highest returns was SNDK. Last year, when I was buying a computer, I learned that a memory shortage had driven up prices. I immediately realized this might be an excellent investment opportunity, so I conducted in-depth research on AI tech stocks and built a portfolio of related thematic stocks. As everyone has seen, AI tech stocks did indeed enter a bull market later on.

My biggest mistake, however, was buying ASTS in late June and holding onto it ever since it’s left me completely stuck in a losing position. It was a truly foolish mistake.

I’d love to hear about your most successful investments and your biggest failures. This might offer some insight to many beginners, as well as those who are currently struggling with losses and seem unable to turn things around. It would be a very meaningful exchange, and it would also give me a chance to reflect on my own investment journey

In the past week: SNDK, MU, HPE, NOK, INTC, DELL all down 15-20 %. Meanwhile, NKE, DKS, ONON, DECK, LULU all up 10-15 %.

Will things go back to normal next week and consumer stocks will keep bleeding while AI keeps surging or are we at a turning point?

I don’t know. I don’t have a crystal ball. I do know that a lot of these consumer stocks are cyclical and they are down in the red massively these days which means when the cycle changes they are in for a green surge like you’ve never seen before. AI hype has been invincible for years now and I imagine it will continue to be so for some years to come. Still, the market is forward thinking and maybe it’s pricing in some struggle now?

I’m long 6,100 NKE shares.

Reuters reports

Anthropic reported $16.8 billion in Q3 revenue, up 45% qoq, but growth slowed sharply after revenue more than doubled in Q2.

Adjusted gross margin: 85%

Adjusted operating margin: 11%

The company also has committed to spending at least $518 billion over a decade.

Some investors are considering a $1.5 trillion valuation for Anthropic’s upcoming IPO, down 25% from earlier expectations of $2 trillion.

Shares and bonds of Nvidia backed CoreWeave, reflecting growing investor concern about an AI buildout that is increasingly being financed with heavy debt

data center operator SB Energy decided to delay its listing last month

Another NVIDIA backed neo cloud Firmus, and nuclear technology company Holtec Nuclear pulled its plans to go public.

I've been looking closely at Farmer Mac (ticker AGM). Specifically, it's preferred stock AGM.PRG since it's offering a 7.6% yield right now and is trading at about $16.40 a share offering about 52% capital appreciation to $25 a share.

From a safety of investment pespective, I'm struggling to see downsides to it.

That is, Farmer Mac is a government chartered/sponsored entity that focuses primarily on rural/agricultural investments. It has a $1.5 billion line of credit with the Treasury actually built into its charter/statutes that created it; and has implied backing of the U.S. Government, at least with respect to its loans/bonds. It's debt is treated as agency debt, meaning it's on-par with U.S. Government debt or one-notch below. I know the implied backing doesn't generally apply to stock of government sponsored entities - e.g., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - but just the fact it has some direct ties to the U.S. Government I would say puts it on par with the best banks.

Also, it's core business - supporting farmers and agriculture - is a respected industry that even gets bilateral support in Congress. In other words, in addition to having direct ties to the government, if solvency of farms and agriculture ever became a major issue in America then, presumably, Congress would bail it out. Indeed, there are already huge grants and subsidies in the law to support American farming and agriculture.

Additionally, it generally seems to be a business operated better than some of the best banks. That is, it's credit loss charge-off has never exceeded 0.10% in a single year; it's loan-to-value ratio is lower than most banks at about 50% LTV; and, even 2008 wouldn't have put it out of business based on its lending (although things did get a bit rocky for Farmer Mac is it owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac preferred stock and some Lehman brothers debt as assets; if it wasn't for those it would have been smooth sailing).

In essence, you're getting a well-operated bank that makes conservative loans, has some amount of direct backing by the U.S. government, and in an industry that if it ever gets real bad Congress will almost certainly support or bail out. All this and you're getting a 7.6% yield.

Can anybody shoot holes in this or tell me some real downsides? That is, other than interest rate risk - i.e., interest rates generally continue to go up making the value of the preferred go down; and single-line business risk in the sense that Farmer Mac is not diversified and is focused almost entirely on rural farming and agriculture; I'm struggling to see any major risks with Farmer Mac. Doing this as an exercise to see if there are real risks people can identify that I'm not seeing. Thanks.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on the market's October rate cut during his IMF fireside chat in Bangkok.

The key takeaways that are going to move the market today:

No Free Riders: Warsh heavily praised recent global monetary tightening, explicitly stating there are "no free riders" in this environment.

The AI "Shock": He described massive AI data center investments as a "supply shock" that complicates inflation and productivity modeling. He warned the path forward will be "very bumpy."

The Big Refusal: When pressed on the upcoming October meeting, he flat-out withheld any rate signal, crushing expectations of an easy pivot.

The market has been pricing in a smooth landing, but Warsh sounds ready to keep the screws tight if global conditions demand it. Are we looking at a sharp reality check for tech stocks today?

Source: CNBC

So we are now in the phase of the AI cycle where those companies with the lowest cost of capital will be rewarded the most and those with the highest cost of capital will be most punished. We are seeing this play out now. MSFT, GOOGL, META, and AMZN, known as the hyperscalers, are the ones by far spending the most on the AI buildout and they all have the lowest cost of capital with MSFT being the absolute lowest with a AAA rating. On the flip side, the neoclouds and colo models are plunging because they have the highest cost of capital. Credit spreads are now blowing out for them with CRWV being the worst. In effect, this will mechanically force neoclouds to either slow their infrastructure buildout because the debt is too expensive or they might issue equity and dilute shareholders to fund more AI CAPEX. Either way the writing is on the wall for the neoclouds. With them it’s the Dot com bubble all over again. What is likely to happen is most of neoclouds go bankrupt and the hyperscalers buy their data centers for pennies on the dollar. This is exactly what happened during the Dot com bubble. The companies who built the fiber lines went bankrupt and it was bought for pennies on the dollar.

So, who’s the ultimate beneficiaries? The hyperscalers: AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL and META. They have the lowest cost of capital and they will be the ones who step in to buy the assets built by the neoclouds for pennies on the dollar when they go bankrupt.

Also, to add about the AI hardware stocks. You have to look at what each one’s exposure is. For example, lower AI CapEx from distressed neoclouds doesn’t hurt MRVL because all of their customers are hyperscalers. They have no neocloud exposure. Those hardware companies with neocloud exposure will likely take a hit though. Those with their businesses concentrated with the hyperscalers are likely to be rewarded.

Seems like CNBC has changed recently. In the past there may have been a few locked articles but for the last week every article I click on says that I have reach my limit of free articles and a free account will unlock it. Well I know if it was really free they would just make it free. I am sick and tired of logins and password as well.

I tried Yahoo finance but hate the structure of that website. Any other suggestions to get business and stock news?

September’s producer price index came in much hotter than economists forecasted on Thursday, underscoring the continued inflationary pressure from energy amid the U.S. war with Iran.

The measure of underylying inflation pressures climbed 1.3% in September and 6.3% on an annual basis, marking its largest 12-month advance since late 2022, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economists polled by Dow Jones forecasted an advance of 0.6% on the month and 5.5% annually.

This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme.

Some helpful day to day links, including news:

• Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
• Bloomberg market news
• StreetInsider news:
  • Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
  • Reuters aggregated - Global news

Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports.

Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well.

But growth stocks don't rely so much on EPS or revenue as long as they beat some other metric like subscriber count: Going from 1 million to 10 million subscribers means more revenue in the future.

Value stocks do rely on earnings reports, investors look for wall street expectations to be beaten on both EPS & revenue. You'll also find value stocks pay dividends, but never invest in a company solely for its dividend.

See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:

Market Cap - Shares Outstanding - Volume - Dividend - EPS - P/E Ratio - EPS Q/Q - PEG - Sales Q/Q - Return on Assets (ROA) - Return on Equity (ROE) - BETA - SMA - quarterly earnings

If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.

Useful links:

• Investopedia page on fundamental analysis including Discounted Cash Flow analysis; see definition here and read their PDF on the topic.
• FINVIZ for fundamental data, charts, and aggregated news
• Earnings Whisper for earnings details

See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.

Debt Concerns Shake CoreWeave's AI Growth Story

CoreWeave stock fell to an annual low of $59.51 as investors grew uneasy about $850 million in unsecured debt, with yields approaching 15%. Higher financing costs raised questions about whether the company's expansion plans could deliver attractive returns.

Some analysts, however, argued that the market reaction overlooked the company's commercial abilities. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an "Overweight" rating and a $176 price target, describing the negative narrative as excessive. The firm pointed to strong demand for CoreWeave's computing capacity in 2027.

Jefferies also retained its "Buy" rating, with a $150 target. The firm said CoreWeave's short-duration contracts, valued at roughly $40 million per megawatt, could help offset more expensive funding. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the stock remained bullish.

Housing Slump Adds Pressure On Opendoor

Opendoor stock slumped to a new yearly low of $1.9 as fewer homes sold in the U.S. Pending home sales fell to their lowest level in 12 years, while 30-year mortgage rates climbed to 7.40% for the week ending Oct. 8, making home loans more expensive for buyers.

With fewer homes selling, Opendoor faces greater challenges buying and reselling properties. The company must cover the costs of holding homes for longer while earning less profit from the difference between buying and selling prices. Retail sentiment around the stock remained ‘bearish’.

SoFi Faces Questions About Earnings Quality

SoFi stock fell to a 52-week low of $13.86, reflecting concerns that rising revenue was not translating into earnings growth at the same pace.

The company reported second-quarter revenue of $1.22 billion and raised its full-year revenue outlook to $4.75 billion - $4.85 billion. However, its adjusted earnings-per-share outlook remained around $0.60 as increased marketing investment and customer acquisition costs weighed on profit.

Last week, Keefe Bruyette lowered its price target for SoFi to $15 from $16 and maintained an "Underperform" rating. The firm expects rising interest rates and SoFi’s growing balance sheet to create more than $1 billion in pressure this quarter, forcing the company to issue more loans while reducing its available capital. Retail sentiment around the stock turned neutral from bullish.

https://www.ft.com/content/4ffa1853-0e2c-424f-b941-88c6bcac5765

Co-founder Brannin McBee, who leads CoreWeave's financing, told the FT that investment-grade ratings on more of its chip-backed debt would let it borrow from insurers, whose capital "is unlimited. Like, that's all the money in the world that sits in the insurance tranche."

McBee said CoreWeave will keep taking out chip-backed loans: "I don't look at that as scary debt at all. I look at that as accelerating debt and great debt."

Here's how I interpret this.

Bond market charging us 15%, claiming we will "default".

Well lookie here insurance companies, you're our new friend.

Assuming they succeed, I could see companies like CRWV and ORCL (also trading at junk bond yields) becoming TBTF and debt will be bailed out regardless of outcome.

Having used their products in 2018, I knew these companies had value that could translate into earnings.

2022 they reached incredible highs, and now they're trading at crazy low valuations in comparison.

I've not checked stock in years and am completely out of the loop on the industry. What happened to solar?

Enph in particular has easily the best microonverters in the market and great quality panels. They also added batteries successfully. Is it all politics and solar subsidies in the US?

https://www.moomoo.com/news/flash/1001257925/tsmc-q3-revenue-nt-1494-24-billion-net-income-of

For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) reported consolidated revenue of NT$1,494.24 billion, net income of NT$763.06 billion, and diluted EPS of NT$29.43, equivalent to US$4.60 per ADR. Year-over-year, third quarter revenue increased 50.9%, while net income and diluted EPS both increased 68.7%.

The company posted a gross margin of 66.4%, an operating margin of 58.7%, and a net profit margin of 51.1%.

Domestic passenger vehicle retail dropped 28% from a year earlier in September, a much steeper decline than total shipments posted. The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) published the September data on October 12. Wholesale covers what manufacturers shipped in the month, domestic deliveries and exports, not end purchases, and it fell 8.9% year over year while manufacturer-reported passenger vehicle exports grew 73.7%. With those year-over-year numbers side by side, I read them as exports offsetting some of the domestic decline, and exports' share of wholesale went from 19% a year earlier to 36%.

Against the prior month, the export share dropped two months running from 41% in July, while September wholesale and exports both rose, which does not sit as neatly with that reading. The CPCA named ten automakers as NEV exporters, meaning battery electric, plug-in hybrid and range-extended vehicles, and those exports also rose from August. BYD's figure fell while Chery and Leapmotor gained, and these are shipments abroad only, not counting combustion-engine exports.

The CPCA pointed to this year's Mid-Autumn Festival falling earlier than usual, in late September, with clearly weaker domestic sales that week. It cited a high base from September 2025, when subsidies for car buyers in some provinces were about to expire and purchases concentrated before they lapsed. The report listed other causes, and how much of the retail drop those two explain is not clear from one month.

On October 12 the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the export VAT rebate rate for battery electric and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles. The rate drops from 13% to 9%. It applies to exports from April 1, 2027, going by the export date. The announcement does not settle how large the effect will be.

The CPCA report carries two export counts. For August, manufacturer-reported passenger vehicle exports including kits for overseas assembly rose 77.8% from a year earlier, while customs data for all vehicle types grew 37%. No September customs figure appears. What would you watch in the report covering October data, out next month, to gauge what exports are doing for automakers' total shipments with domestic volume down?

Of the automakers on the CPCA's September NEV export list, two are in CNQQ and the other eight are not. The latest issuer holdings file puts BYD at about 1.75% of net assets, held as the Shenzhen-listed A share, and XPeng at roughly 0.41%. CQQQ's index is a FTSE benchmark of Chinese companies the provider classifies under technology.