if you're first pick and don't know what the enemy is going for, you want a hero that's hard to punish. i ran 8.7M ancient-divine games from 7.41e/f through a model to find those heroes for each role.
how to read the table:
- the big number on the right is how much better the hero does than an average pick for that role when you don't know the enemy yet
- "worst vs" is the one commonly picked hero that hurts it the most. if that hero gets picked early on their side, think twice
some takeaways:
- dawnbreaker (pos 3) and nyx (pos 4) have no hard counters among the 40 most picked heroes, they're the safest first picks right now
- necrophos is the most common "worst matchup" in the table. if your team first picks WK or DK, keep an eye on him
- PL is strong but not a blind pick, tidehunter destroys him. save him for later in the draft
- OD is the best blind mid, his only real problem among popular heroes is PL
off-role heroes and heroes whose winrate is mostly carried by one-trick players were left out.
your own hero pool matters more than any table, but if you're stuck on first pick and comfy on one of these, it's a solid default.
(the numbers come from a draft tool i'm building, happy to answer questions about how it was calculated)