r/learndota2 • u/Complex-Bend-2827 • 20h ago
Drafting Safest blind picks for every role on 7.41f (what to pick when you go first)
if you're first pick and don't know what the enemy is going for, you want a hero that's hard to punish. i ran 8.7M ancient-divine games from 7.41e/f through a model to find those heroes for each role.
how to read the table:
- the big number on the right is how much better the hero does than an average pick for that role when you don't know the enemy yet
- "worst vs" is the one commonly picked hero that hurts it the most. if that hero gets picked early on their side, think twice
some takeaways:
- dawnbreaker (pos 3) and nyx (pos 4) have no hard counters among the 40 most picked heroes, they're the safest first picks right now
- necrophos is the most common "worst matchup" in the table. if your team first picks WK or DK, keep an eye on him
- PL is strong but not a blind pick, tidehunter destroys him. save him for later in the draft
- OD is the best blind mid, his only real problem among popular heroes is PL
off-role heroes and heroes whose winrate is mostly carried by one-trick players were left out.
your own hero pool matters more than any table, but if you're stuck on first pick and comfy on one of these, it's a solid default.
(the numbers come from a draft tool i'm building, happy to answer questions about how it was calculated)

