Anthropic secured highest junk credit rating in June

Good news for Anthropic's borrowing ability

although KBRA (non-Big-Three) is generous here, if it was S&P, Moody's, or Fitch , the rating would likely be B+ to ccc.

still this is one of the only good news happened to anthropic lately.

i wonder if this helps coreweave

I'm a young person and here the general advice is to have a 12 months emergency fund and the rest mainly in stocks.

Since I'm young still, I may need to buy a house and renovate it, a car or other big expenses that are not "emergencies" so it's not recommended to take from the emergency fund. In case of a recession, where would I take money from?

I know my portfolio sucks and I'm losing a lot of opportunities but my NW is $140k and only $30k is in stocks (ETFs) albeit I plan to reach at least 40k in the upcoming future. The rest is in money market ETFs and medium term bonds. The things is that I'm very uncertain about my future and what I want to do. Thank you.

This situation reminds me of shipping companies. Many shippers are just lessors, they lease ships from another company that bought the ships with huge debts, but these purchases were only made with negotiated customer on fixed lease term 5 to10 years contract. This is similar business model like neoclouds.

Once the contract is up, the spot shipping rate is usually crap and does not generate enough to pay the residual debt used to fund the initial build, while the 5 yearly surveying cost increases. A lot of these shipping companies are huge shareholder value destroyers, so naturally most had shifted to Asia for the lowest cost base.

The past few days are obvious forced liquidations due to players with highly concentrated and levered positions in AI and tech. The market including much of tech and AI stocks will recover, but don't count on the same with neoclouds because their business model is flawed. Decades of the same business model employed by shipping companies has proven this beyond any reasonable doubt.

You might say it's different because ships are much easier to build than GPUs. Don't count on the hidden risk in plain sight. NVDA is not going to have a forever monopoly. There are Google's TPU etc and we have not seen yet new powerful GPUs from China. This is exactly how things panned out for shippers. Every new generation of ships are much more cost effective than the previous, so older ships that have contracts ended would fail to attract the best contract rates and contract length.

AI will survive, and gets even bigger than ever. Businesses with flawed business models will go through cycles of ups and downs but mostly downs, and destroying shareholder value in that process. They will still be there, like the yesteryear's shipping companies that are no longer the talk of the town, doing important work that the world requires, leaving a graveyard of yesteryear's investors.

Beyond CoreWeave, several major NVIDIA-backed "neoclouds" and GPU cloud providers including Lambda Labs, Nebius, Crusoe Energy, and IREN are facing severe market scrutiny, growing massive debt pressure, or slow AI revenue growth.

What happens to NVIDIA and all the other ai hardware companies like the ones in South Korea

Investment thesis for trading week 10/19 - 10/23

Well, earnings season started with a bang!

Banks reported disappointing earnings and despite a nice setup from a chart perspective the market reaction caused some damage now.

Tech giants are yet to report but the NDX 100 weekly chart now looks more like distribution is happening.

From a pure chart perspective there is no clear signal albeit there is a risk now that we will roll over.

Fear and Greed index, put/call ratio and market breadth could support a bounce however.

The drop in yields might support equities from a macro perspective going forward.

What does this mean for the portfolios now?

Short term portfolios are now only invested in the S&P 500 (80%), TLT (bonds 30%) and KWEB (15%). That adds up to 125% meaning leverage is 1.25.

That feels like an appropriate allocation in the current environment where market risks are rising but the overall tailwinds still exist. Short term portfolio is up 22.6% YTD.

Long term portfolios deleveraged more this week and they are now at the ideal 60% allocation for the S&P 500 and 30% Cash/Bonds. Rest is crypto and KWEB.

The more defensive stance comes from an elevated long term market risk. Since I am up 11% YTD capital protection is key.

Given the current chart picture no trades are planned for next week!

Stay safe and have a great weekend!

Hey all! I'd appreciate any insight or advice on the stock I own for a company that is being acquired. Company is being purchased by PE so it will be going private, they announced the cash price per share.

Currently trading about 2% below that purchase price.

Does it make sense to just carry it to the end and collect the purchase price or is there any advantage to unloading it before?

Can't imagine there's any reason someone would buy it at or above that purchase price but wasn't sure if there is something else I'm missing.

Thanks!

Down 15% on this ticker myself, it just kept dipping. Now it has the issue of a potential market pullback to deal with. Avg is $204. I know I’ll be roasted for investing in rate sensitive sectors with a hawkish fed but the value looked good and I believe in green energy playing a prominent role in an increasing energy hungry world. Anyone have a position in it? Think democrat election victories are a potential catalyst?

​

The long-term trend in Treasury yields appears to be turning increasingly bullish, with the 30year yield potentially heading toward 8% over the coming year or months. As the chart shows, yields have broken out of a multi decade downward channel and are now pushing above a key resistance level that held for years.

A short-term pullback toward 5.25% is still possible, but it may not change the bigger picture. If this breakout holds, it could signal a structural shift toward higher long t borrowing costs, driven by persistent inflation, rising government debt, and investors demanding greater compensation for holding long-term bonds.

The Federal Reserve cold also face a difficult challenge trying to keep borrowing costs contained if market forces continue pushing yields higher.

Whyy this matters for the stock market A sustained rise in long-term Treasury yields could put pressure on stock valuations, particularly high-growth technology stocks like those n the Nasdaq, as higher bond yields make future corporate earnings less valuable n today's dollars. It could also increase mortgage rates, raise borrowing costs 4 businesses and consumers, n put additional pressure on the broader economy.

Tha key takeaway is that even if yields experience a temporary pullback, the long-term technical picture suggests the risk of significantly higher borrowing costs remains on the table. A move toward 8% wold be a major development for financial markets. re u prepared?

https://ibb.co/SDszFQC1

While public attention remains fixed on hyperscaler software margins, a structural vulnerability is emerging in the private credit backing specialized data center buildouts.

Consider the specialized cloud provider model (e.g., CoreWeave):

• Asset Base: Massive purchases of high-cost enterprise GPUs, financed largely via debt obligations (accumulating roughly $50B in liabilities across the sector).
• Revenue Stream: Long-term compute leases to tier-1 enterprise customers.
• The Disconnect: Even with strong contract backlogs, refinancing variable and maturing debt in a 5%+ benchmark rate environment creates an acute spread compression.

Following hotter inflation prints this week, credit markets pushed yields on this debt toward distressed levels, widening default risk spreads significantly. When an anchor infrastructure borrower faces sudden credit repricing, the liquidation pressure spreads to suppliers (foundries, packaging, chipmakers) and broad passive index exposure.

Gartner previously projected that up to 80% of independent AI compute providers may struggle to survive independently by 2030 due to capital intensity and hardware depreciation schedules.

Are you viewing this week's pullback as an overreaction to routine credit noise, or an early indicator that capex expansion must decelerate to match sustainable debt yields?

September’s producer price index came in much hotter than economists forecasted on Thursday, underscoring the continued inflationary pressure from energy amid the U.S. war with Iran.

The measure of underylying inflation pressures climbed 1.3% in September and 6.3% on an annual basis, marking its largest 12-month advance since late 2022, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economists polled by Dow Jones forecasted an advance of 0.6% on the month and 5.5% annually.

Currently have a indv. brokerage account and IRA account for rollovers (Trad. & Roth) through u/Fidelity. I am thinking of starting a second brokerage account with another brokerage firm(Ex: TD / Schwab, etc) for similar use. Thought being, don't want everything to be at one brokerage. Thoughts on this approach? Go.

Firstly i want to clarify: i do not mean a collapse, AI is not going away. I am talking about a market adjustment.

$$V = \sum_{t=1}^{n} \frac{CF_t}{(1+r)^t}$$

CF is the expected cash flow in year t, meaning the cash the company is expected to generate that year. r is the discount rate and t is the time horizon. If r increases (i.e., interest rates rise), the discount factor (1+r)^t grows exponentially over time t, reducing the present value of any future cash flow. This primarily hits industrial projects based on future cash flows, just like AI ( one only needs to look at their P/E ratios)

Wednesday’s drop followed higher inflation data, which reignited fears of higher interest rates and increased borrowing costs to fund tech development. Thus, rate expectations (r) and growth concerns (CF) both played a role the day before yesterday.

Oracle, neo-clouds, and data center builders take out loans or issue bonds to build capacity, backed by contracts with labs (OpenAI, Anthropic). The bond is serviced by the data center rent. The rent is paid by the customer, which can be a lab or a neo-cloud. If the lab has no earnings, it pays with new equity capital. And that capital depends on valuations and secure funding. If valuations drop, the IPO gets delayed (like OpenAI did), the customer slows down or renegotiates, and the bond loses value.

So the problem arises when a lab can no longer pay, not only because it lacks earnings, but because it can no longer raise capital (due to mistrust on AI as seen yesterday with the KOSPI market, or due to difficulty on raise capital due to high interest rates)

Between July 28 and 29, the main Seoul stock index (Kospi) dropped 16% over two consecutive sessions, forcing regulators to trigger circuit breakers (temporary trading halts). Also back then he sell-off was triggered by severe doubts about the short-term profitability of AI infrastructure spending and pressure on Korean memory giants.

Many companies and data center operators are taking on heavy debt (via high-yield bond issuances or loans) to buy chips and build multi-hundred-megawatt servers. With high interest rates, debt servicing costs are starting to weigh heavily, sparking fears over long-term financial sustainability and negatively impacting semiconductor stocks.

For decades, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates near zero. Investors borrowed Yen almost for free, converted them into US dollars and bought higher-yielding asset like US treasuries and bonds. However, due to an excessively weak yen, the BoJ has decided to raise interest rates, now 1.25%. If japanese investors (the largest foreign buyer of US debt) are no longer buying because it is more convenient at home, then the US treasury is forced to offer higher interest rates to their bonds.

the Fed meets on October 28 to assess interest rates, while the BoJ meets on October 30 to see whether to hike further. If they continue to raise rates, "r" will rise further.

Can a domino effect happen? meaning

BoJ rise interest rates -> Capital unwinds from US Treasuries (Carry trade ends) -> US Treasury yields rise (the price of new and existing debt increases r ↑ )-> Debt becomes too expensive for AI labs & Data centers -> Venture capital reduces funding and IPO gets delayed -> AI labs struggle to pay data center leases -> Mistrust & default fears spread --> High-yield AI data center bonds struggle, spreading to the tech market.

Am i reading it wrong? what am i missing?

Hi - stock market is volatile and it's down .

Mist of my investments are in blue chip stocks but I do have some positions in sofi, iren, etc.

Since the whole market is down, I lost all of my gains.

Worried how much more it will fall and how long it will take to recover.

I've not booked these losses and I'm trying to not look at my portfolio.

Considering upcoming interest rate decision and midterm elections, are we already in recession or it will start in 2027?

For those who have been investing for a while, I’m curious how you think the tech sector will look over the next 10–20 years compared to the broader market. I’ve been looking into different ETFs and find VGT interesting, especially given how much technology has grown over the past few years. At the same time, I wonder whether that level of growth is sustainable long term.
What other ETFs do you find interesting for long term investing, particularly ones focused on growth or sectors you think have potential over the next couple of decades? I’d be interested to hear what people are watching and why.

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

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Im quickly trying to build my taxable account to 100 shares of SPY for covered calls. My plan is if I can do this I can sell out of the money covered calls to collect the Premium from volatility. While spy continues to average 10-15% per year I can hold the shares and sell calls, If my shares did get assigned I would just purchase 100 shares again and repeat the cycle as long as these calls aren’t too far in expiration and a reasonable price out money .

I'm reading that Fractyl Health ($GUTS) had some good news today. It makes no sense to me why the stock would crash when they just now released great information. Is this due to some investors concerned about the upcoming dilution that could happen?

October holds the historical reputation for having some of the most famous and catastrophic market crashes.

The Panic of 1907: A severe financial crisis which triggered a massive run on banks.

The 1929 Crash (Black Tuesday/Thursday): The severe market collapse that led into the Great Depression, with the Dow Jones dropping around 25% over a few days in late October.

Black Monday (1987): On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6%, the largest one-day percentage drop in history. 

The 2008 Financial Crisis: Steep declines and intense volatility of the Great Recession peaked in October 2008.

October 10, 2025, Bitcoin’s Flash Crash, losing over $19B in leveraged positions within 24 hours.

I've been looking into what my options are in defensive investments and touched on the normal consumer staples, healthcare, real estate, etc. but then as I started reading into quality stocks (basically solid, consistent financials, low debt, and performance), I see that Vanguard offers VFQY which appears to have a similar, just less tech-heavy composition than VOO.

It's traded leading/lagging VOO in the last few years, and sure, the expense ratio is ~4x as much, but what am I missing about why to or not to invest in it? This seems like a more reasonable, diversified allocation of sectors than VOO currently is, no?

My understanding is that VBIL spread is very narrow but there can be so I'm wondering how to prevent loss when selling shares of this treasuries ETF. Does it have to be a limit order like what specific price am I looking to lock in at limit? Thank you.

So I had enough to use the free $1000 margin before and it seemed to be working fine using SGOV like recommended here. But now I placed another $1000 to use for something else but it seems like they just automatically shifted it to "cover" the $1000 margin? So how do I both keep the $1000 of free margin as SGOV while also depositing more cash to buy other stuff? I also can't withdraw that $1000 out either.

So when I was a child, my parents put money aside for me after selling our first house. This money has since been in a wealth management service. Now that I am older and have started to get into investing, is it recommended that I take this money out and invest it myself in lower risk ETF's? I don't really understand it all too much, but I'd imagine that the fee's tied with the wealth management service would be far higher than managing it myself.

Any advice would be helpful!

Hi - I've been contributing monthly from last 2 years on Individual stocks investment (not on etfs? and built my portfolio about 123k.

Looking at the situation, I am worried how to handle recession and I am already down from the recent falls.

What is your strategy to survive recession if there is one tomorrow? Do all close your stock positions by taking a loss and enter when you get a hint that market has bottomed out.

Pls guide , thanks for your reply.

fitch had q3 redemption requests at 13 of the 15 perpetual nontraded BDCs averaging 9.8% of shares, against the usual 5% quarterly cap. so if you asked out, you got roughly half. at the same time Cox Capital's tender for BCRED was $20.65 a share against an aug 31 NAV of $23.60, about 12.5% under, and in july they were bidding around 25% under NAV on HLEND.

i get that a tender buyer wants a discount for liquidity, and Cox says its prices track where the public BDCs trade. but if the fund says 23.60 and the only cash bid outside the fund is 20.65, at some point the gate is part of the price. for people who hold these or compare them against the listed BDCs, which number do you actually use?