Keep on pushing that ACE record up!

It's probably even stronger, potentially 160kt (185 mph) with a sub 900 pressure.

I left the Blue Ridge Mountains and as I entered North Georgia early evening I saw this fascinating crimson sky. Hurricane Isaias was probably 12 hours away.

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

 For the North Atlantic:

 1. Off the East Coast of the United States (AL93):
 A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area located a few hundred 
 miles off the North Carolina coast is producing some shower and 
 thunderstorm activity primarily west of its center. However, 
 overnight satellite wind data indicated the low was still attached 
 to an occluded front. Over the next couple of days, the low could 
 develop some organized deep convection and gradually lose its 
 frontal features while it moves slowly north-northeastward over the 
 Gulf Stream, allowing the system to briefly develop subtropical 
 characteristics. By the end of the week, the system is expected to 
 accelerate northeastward away from the the eastern United States, 
 where environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable 
 for additional subtropical or tropical development.

 Regardless of the status of the system, high winds, coastal 
 flooding, and dangerous surf are expected along portions of the U.S. 
 East Coast during the next few days. For more information, please 
 consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service 
 offices and the Weather Prediction Center, along with High Seas 
 Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


 High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
 found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
 online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

 Forecaster Papin

  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  500 AM PDT Tue Oct 20 2026

  For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

  1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
  A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the
  Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and 
  thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a
  tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so
  so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward
  at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore
  of southern Mexico.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
    * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


  Forecaster Kelly

https://meteofrance.re/fr/cyclone

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0227web.txt

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/sh0227prog.txt

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026

 For the North Atlantic:

 1. Off the East Coast of the United States:
 A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is located along a 
 frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeast coast of the 
 United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically 
 over the next couple of days. If the low remains over the Gulf 
 Stream and becomes detached from the front, it could briefly
 acquire some subtropical cyclone characteristics during the middle
 to latter portions of the week. The system is expected to begin to
 move northeastward away from the the eastern United States later
 this week, and environmental conditions are expected to become 
 unfavorable for development by the weekend.  Regardless of the 
 status of the system, high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous 
 surf are expected along portions of the U.S. East Coast during the 
 next few days. Please consult statements and warnings from local 
 National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center 
 for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm 
 Warnings issued by the National Weather Service.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
   * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


 High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
 found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
 online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


 Forecaster Pasch

 Tropical Weather Outlook
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 500 AM PDT Mon Oct 19 2026

 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

 Active Systems:
 The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
 Storm Trudy, located a couple of hundred miles offshore of 
 west-central Mexico.

 1. South of Southern Mexico:
 Showers and thunderstorms, associated with a trough of low pressure 
 located several hundred miles south of Guatemala, remain disorganized. 
 Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
 tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this
 week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around
 10 mph, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico.
   * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
   * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


 Forecaster Adams

I witnessed and survived Hurricane Isaias from Santa Rosa County, Florida on October 9, 2026. It was bad here yes, but the worst of it was over in Fort Walton Beach/Mary Esther, 45 minutes away.

I remember at one point, I was under a (Considerable) Flash Flood Warning, a Hurricane Warning, and an Extreme Wind Warning all at once. 80% of the county I was in was without power (see this post).

Here is my video of the event: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZac67QbuaU

Enjoy the video, and tell me what you think. A lot of the questions you may have about this video, you can find the answers in the description. Thanks :-)

The donut hole eye looked crazy on radar so I thought I’d post it, what a crazy cyclone! Hope everyone in Guam is staying safe

“Off the East Coast of the [United States](zoomearth://localhost/places/united-states/): A strong non-tropical low pressure area is expected to form by Sunday night off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically through the middle of next week, and some subtropical development is possible during this time. Regardless of development, this system will cause high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast.” - NHC

Champi has rapidly developed and organized its core. It has developed very cold cloud tops and a clear, circular pinhole eye.

Winds at 150 mph and a pressure of 934 mbar as of 18z today, but satellite presentation has improved from then.

Longwave IR. Source Tropical Tidbits

Now that Trudy is over water with a higher oceanic heat content, some strengthening is possible. However, moderate vertical shear, dry air entrainment, and increasing land interaction could limit how much strengthening may occur. After 24 h or so, increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level moisture near the cyclone are likely to cause steady to rapid weakening even when the center would be moving away from the coast of Mexico. Current expectations are that the system will stop producing convection between 72-96 h and decay to a remnant low pressure, and the global models forecast the circulation to weaken to a trough by 120 h. The new intensity forecast has some tweaks from the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope.

Discussion

Bulletin

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 103.9W
  ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
  ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
---------------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Punta Mita to San Blas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from south of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from south of Manzanillo to Zihuatanejo
* The coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
-------------------------------------------
INIT  17/1500Z 16.6N 103.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 17.7N 104.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 19.1N 105.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 20.1N 106.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 20.7N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 20.9N 107.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 20.9N 108.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 21.7N 109.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Just wondering how frequent extreme weather incidents like hurricanes and cyclones are in the South Pacific. Do they occur regularly ? And how severe are they when they happen ? I was in Moorea and the Cook Islands recently, both stunningly beautiful, but I couldn't help but notice that a hurricane would likely devastate the inhabited area severely.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS, 948 MB
INITIAL POSITION: 12.5N 147.3E
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 158 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 13 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET

JTWC DISCUSSION

NWS GUAM BULLETIN Typhoon Champi (29W) Advisory Number 12 National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP292026 725 PM ChST Sat Oct 17 2026

...TYPHOON CHAMPI NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 MOVING WEST TOWARDS GUAM
COASTAL WATERS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Typhoon Champi upgraded to a dangerous Category 4 typhoon.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, and the adjacent waters.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Tinian, Saipan, and
the adjacent waters.
A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan in the Northern
Marianas, and the adjacent coastal waters.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.6N 146.7E

About 140 miles east-southeast of Guam
About 145 miles southeast of Rota
About 180 miles south-southeast of Tinian
About 185 miles south-southeast of Saipan
About 270 miles south-southeast of Anatahan
About 350 miles south of Alamagan
About 385 miles south of Pagan
About 430 miles south of Agrihan
About 620 miles east-northeast of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...130 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Typhoon Champi was located 
near Latitude 12.6 degrees North and Longitude 146.7 degrees East. 
Champi is moving west at 15 mph. It is expected to maintain this 
general course with a slight decrease in forward speed through Sunday. 
This general forecast track will take Champi just south of Guam as a 
strong Category 4 typhoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 130 mph. Champi is forecast 
to continue intensifying through the next few days, possibly becoming 
a Super Typhoon within the next 12 hours.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 60 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 125 miles.

 SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
 ----------------------------------------------
 LOCATION...14.6N 102.5W
   ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
   ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
 PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


 WATCHES AND WARNINGS
 ----------------------------------------------
 CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for 
 the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula.

 The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for 
 the coast of Mexico north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas.

 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
 * The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Playa Perula

 A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
 * The coast of Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
 * The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo southward to Punta San Telmo

 A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
 * The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo southward to Zihuatanejo

 A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
 * The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas


 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 ----------------------------------------------
 INIT  16/1500Z 14.6N 102.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  17/0000Z 15.3N 102.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  17/1200Z 16.6N 103.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  18/0000Z 18.1N 104.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  18/1200Z 19.6N 105.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
  60H  19/0000Z 20.7N 106.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  19/1200Z 21.2N 107.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  21/1200Z 22.2N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Bulletin

Discussion, excerpts below plus additional excerpts from the previous forecast discussion

Satellite imagery shows that Trudy's intensification has again paused, with the eye becoming less distinct and the convective cloud tops in the eyewall becoming warmer. An earlier GPM microwave overpass suggested that the eyewall has opened up on the south side, possibly due to a tongue of dry air wrapping into that part of the hurricane... While the environment that Trudy is in seems to be conducive for strengthening, the intensification has sputtered twice during the past day or so. And in an interesting twist, the regional hurricane models do not forecast any additional strengthening before the hurricane reaches a less favorable environment. Other intensity guidance suggest some intensification could still occur, and based on a blend of this and the previous forecast the new intensity forecast shows some strengthening during the next 24 hours. Trudy is still expected to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of Mexico. Later in the forecast period, Trudy is expected have land interaction, move into a drier air mass, and encounter increasing southwesterly shear. These factors should cause steady to rapid weakening...

The initial motion is a somewhat erratic 335/4 kt, as Trudy has followed its previous westward jog with a northward jog. A gradual turn toward the northwest is likely during the next 24 hours as a weak low-level to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This motion should continue through about 72 hours, with the center passing near or over the coast of west-central Mexico at about the 48 hour point. After that time, a weakening Trudy should be steered more by low-level flow. However, the guidance has some spread as to which direction that should be. Some of the guidance shows a west-northwest or west motion, while some models steer the cyclone more northward due to the influence of a large deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific. This part of the forecast track splits the difference by showing a slow west-northwestward motion...

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Trudy later today.

Discussion Number 12 || 300 AM CST Fri Oct 16 2026

The hurricane unexpectedly moved westward for several hours tonight and now appears to be drifting northward, but using a longer-term estimate yields a slow northwestward motion (325/5 kt). The track guidance is clustered on Trudy moving north-northwestward today before turning back toward the northwest tonight and into the weekend in response to a building ridge over Mexico. This will bring the center of Trudy very near the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico in 48-60 h. The NHC track forecast shifted westward this cycle in response to the westward deviation described above, and most models including the skillful Google DeepMind keep the center of Trudy offshore. However, note that small changes to a track forecast that is parallel to the coast could result in large differences regarding the severity of potential impacts.

First organized system of the year for the south pacific formed 15 days early of the official season beggining date.

Tropical invest 92P is now TD01F (Fidji nomenclature) and has formed close to Northern Cook islands.

Projected trajectory southeastward to Southern Cooks and Western French Polynesia.

Fa'aitoito e aroha!

Source: meteo-france

 SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
 ----------------------------------------------
 LOCATION...13.1N 101.6W
   ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
   ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
 PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
 MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


 WATCHES AND WARNINGS
 ----------------------------------------------
 CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch 
 from Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.


 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 ---------------------------------------------- 
 INIT  15/1500Z  13.1N 101.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  16/0000Z  13.6N 101.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  16/1200Z  14.6N 102.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  17/0000Z  15.5N 102.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
  48H  17/1200Z  16.7N 103.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
  60H  18/0000Z  18.0N 104.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  18/1200Z  19.4N 105.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  19/1200Z  20.2N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  20/1200Z  20.3N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

Bulletin

Discussion, excerpts:

Trudy appears to be undergoing a period of rapid intensification. After the previous advisory, there were several microwave images that showed the hurricane has developed an eyewall, with a cyan ring noted on the 37 GHz channel of the 1037 UTC GMI and more recent 1250 UTC WSF-M pass See Slides 6-7. This signature is often a harbinger or indicates that rapid intensification is underway. On geostationary satellite Trudy has been maintaining a healthy central dense overcast with cold cloud tops between -75 to -80 C with new bursts of convection fully wrapping around the circulation as it becomes more symmetric. The subjective Dvorak estimate at 12 UTC was T4.5/77 kt, but given the improving structure seen on microwave imagery, the initial intensity is being set at 80 kt this advisory, which is on the high end of the intensity estimates. This indicates that Trudy has intensified 30 kt in the past 24 h, qualifying as rapid intensification....

Now that Trudy has developed an inner-core, intensification is likely to be rapid in the short-term. Environmental conditions are quite favorable (shear under 10 kt, sea-surface temperatures 28-29 C, and abundant moisture) and SHIPS-RI indices are elevated for a 30-40 kt increase in intensity over the next 24 h. Thus, the first part of this intensity forecast was raised from the previous advisory, showing Trudy becoming a major hurricane in 12-24 h, and peaking as a 125 kt Category 4 hurricane in 36 h. This part of the intensity forecast is on the upper end of the guidance. Thereafter, both the GFS and ECMWF based SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly vertical wind shear increasing markedly, and this will also be the period where Trudy nears the coast of Mexico, where terrain-induced effects will likely start to affect the circulation. These combined effects are now forecast to lead to weakening beginning in 48 h and continuing through the rest of the forecast. One big caveat with this intensity forecast is just how close Trudy gets to Mexico. A track closer to the coast may result in much more weakening than shown here, while a track further offshore may preserve Trudy's intensity, similar to what we saw with Simon earlier this week.