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Game Information

• Matchup: #21 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5-1, 3-1 ACC) @ California Golden Bears (3-3, 2-1 ACC)
• Date & Time: Saturday, October 17 | 7:30 PM PT
• Location: California Memorial Stadium | Berkeley, CA
• TV: ESPN2
• Theme: Grateful Bears
• Series: Cal leads 1-0 after beating Wake Forest 46-36 in Winston-Salem in 2024

There's something a little different about a night game at Memorial Stadium, and tonight should have an especially Berkeley feel. After a warm, sunny afternoon, temperatures should cool noticeably once the sun goes down, with clear skies and the air settling into the upper 50s later in the evening. It's that familiar warm-day-to-cool-night transition in Strawberry Canyon that makes an evening kickoff at Memorial feel different from an afternoon game.

Adding to the atmosphere, tonight is Cal's first-ever “Grateful Bears” game, celebrating the Grateful Dead and the band's deep connection to Berkeley and the Bay Area. The Dead played more concerts on or near the Cal campus than at any other university in the country, so the theme feels particularly appropriate for a Saturday night in Strawberry Canyon. Between the music, the Berkeley crowd and a ranked opponent under the lights, this should be one of the more distinctive home-game atmospheres of the season.

And it's a good setting for what feels like an important test for this Cal team.

Last week's 25-20 win over Virginia Tech felt significant. Cal entered that game having lost three of four, changed offensive play callers midway through the previous game, and was missing two of its most important players in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Kingston Lopa. Yet the Bears found a way to win behind Jackson Brousseau, Pat McCann's offense and a strong defensive performance.

Now JKS and Lopa are expected back, and the question becomes whether Virginia Tech was the beginning of Cal figuring things out or simply one gutsy win. Tonight against a ranked Wake Forest team should give us a much better answer.

1. JKS Returns — To a Different Offense

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (QB, #3) returns after missing Virginia Tech with a concussion, but the offense he comes back to is different from the one he left.

Jackson Brousseau (QB, #11) completed 29 of 43 passes for 321 yards against Virginia Tech and led a 75-yard game-winning drive in the final minute. More importantly, it was Cal's first full game with Pat McCann calling the offense after Tosh Lupoi moved the play-calling duties away from Jordan Somerville at halftime against UNLV.

This isn't a quarterback controversy. If healthy, JKS is the starter. The interesting question is whether Cal can preserve what worked under McCann while taking greater advantage of JKS's particular strengths. We saw better sequencing, more intermediate throws and a passing game that generally looked less dependent on horizontal concepts. JKS gives McCann a stronger arm and potentially more ability to stress a defense vertically.

I'm especially interested in whether Ian Strong (WR, #9) can build on his 97-yard game against Virginia Tech and whether Cal can make Wake defend the entire field rather than crowding the line of scrimmage. The challenge is that Wake has been disruptive up front, while Cal's pass protection remains a concern and starting tackle Jimothy Lewis (OT, #77) has been dealing with an injury.

This won't necessarily be an easy welcome-back game for JKS, but it should give us our clearest look yet at what the McCann/JKS version of the offense can become.

2. Lopa Returns for Cal's Biggest Defensive Test

Kingston Lopa (DB, #2) is also expected back tonight, and his return couldn't come at a better time. Wake quarterback Gio Lopez (QB, #3) has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country, accounting for 20 touchdowns with only one turnover this season. Wake also expects leading receiver Carlos Hernandez (WR, #8) to play.

That creates probably the most interesting matchup of the night: a Wake offense that almost never gives the ball away against a Cal secondary that's at its best when creating turnovers. Lopa already has five interceptions this season and gives Cal another playmaker in the back end.

But defending Lopez isn't simply about coverage. His mobility creates the kind of problem that has hurt Cal before. If the Bears devote extra attention to Wake's receivers, Lopez can exploit scrambling lanes. If Cal commits another defender to containing him, Wake gets more favorable passing matchups.

The key may be whether Cal can generate pressure while still keeping Lopez contained. If Lopa and the secondary can force him into the kind of mistake he has almost completely avoided this season, Cal's upset chances improve dramatically.

3. Was Virginia Tech Actually a Turning Point?

There was plenty to like last week. Cal moved the football, the offensive line protected Brousseau much better than it had protected the quarterbacks earlier in the season, the defense held a productive Virginia Tech offense to 20 points, and the Bears made the plays they needed in the final minute.

But not everything was fixed. Cal still committed 99 yards in penalties, continuing a season-long trend of making games harder than they need to be. That matters even more tonight because Wake has scored 57 and 38 points in its last two games and has enough offensive firepower to punish extra possessions, extended drives and short fields.

Cal proved last week that it can overcome mistakes. Tonight I'd rather see whether it can stop making so many of them.

A win would move the Bears to 4-3 overall and 3-1 in the ACC, with back-to-back conference victories and a win over a ranked opponent. At that point, Virginia Tech starts looking less like an isolated result and more like the beginning of a turnaround.

For the Bettors: How Might This Game Play Out?

The market currently has Wake favored by roughly 9.5 to 10.5 points, with the total around 53.5. The moneyline is roughly Wake -350 and Cal +275, which implies an expected score around Wake 32, Cal 22.

My baseline is somewhat closer: Wake 30, Cal 24, with roughly a 70% chance of a Wake win and 30% chance of a Cal win. Wake deserves to be favored. They're 5-1, playing extremely well offensively and have been much more consistent than Cal.

But I find the spread more interesting than the straight-up projection because Cal +9.5 or +10.5 gives the Bears considerable room if the team we saw against Virginia Tech — now adding JKS and Lopa — represents real improvement.

Scenario 1: Wake Eventually Pulls Away — Wake 34, Cal 20

This is the straightforward Wake-cover outcome. Wake's front creates pressure, JKS struggles somewhat in his first game back, Cal can't establish much of a running game, and the Bears again hurt themselves with penalties or special teams. Lopez doesn't necessarily need a huge night; Wake just stays efficient enough to build separation as the game progresses.

Betting angle: Wake -9.5 / Wake team-total Over.

Scenario 2: Cal Keeps It Close — Wake 27, Cal 23

This is the game script that makes Cal +9.5 or +10.5 attractive to me. McCann doesn't have to turn Cal into a 40-point offense. The Bears simply need to sustain drives, use JKS effectively and avoid repeatedly putting the defense in bad situations. Lopa's return also gives Cal a better chance of limiting Wake's explosive passing game.

There are a lot of plausible scores — 27-23, 30-24, 31-27, 28-21 — in which Wake wins but Cal still covers comfortably. That's why the spread is probably my favorite pregame angle.

Betting angle: Cal +9.5, and even better if you can get +10.5.

Scenario 3: Cal Pulls the Upset — Cal 28, Wake 27

The ingredients for an upset aren't difficult to identify, but Cal probably needs several of them to happen at once. The Bears need to force turnovers, McCann's offense needs to continue progressing, JKS has to create a few explosive plays, and Cal can't commit another double-digit penalty total.

Wake has been extremely good at protecting the football, so this script likely involves Lopa and Cal's secondary doing something most defenses haven't managed against Gio Lopez. I don't think Cal wins this game close to half the time, but I do think there's a reasonable argument that the Bears win it around 30% of the time with JKS and Lopa back.

At +275 or better, that makes the moneyline an interesting higher-risk option.

Betting angle: Small Cal ML +275 or better.

The Wild Card: A Shootout

There's also a path to something like Wake 38, Cal 31. Wake has already demonstrated that it can score in bunches, while Cal's passing game has more upside if McCann can successfully integrate JKS into what worked last week.

That's the path to Over 53.5. I don't like it quite as much pregame because JKS is returning from a concussion and Cal's offense has been inconsistent, but it becomes more appealing if the Bears are protecting well and attacking Wake downfield early. In that case, I might prefer looking for a live Over rather than forcing the bet before kickoff.

What I'm Watching Tonight

For me, it comes down to three questions: Does JKS make the improved McCann offense even better? Can Lopa and Cal's secondary finally force Gio Lopez into mistakes? And was Virginia Tech actually the beginning of a turnaround?

Tonight should tell us a lot more about what this Cal team is going to be over the second half of the season.

Roll On You Bears. 🐻