Hey everyone,

About a year ago I posted Polywhaler here, a site that tracks big trades on Polymarket. It had a small "crypto price predictions" section that I've now rebuilt into a proper page.

Polymarket runs a ton of crypto price bets at once (5 minute up/down, daily, weekly "above $X", monthly "will it hit $X", yearly targets), but they're spread across hundreds of separate events. Now you pick a coin and see all of them in one place, with the odds history, every price level, volume, and the live spot price next to it so you can compare what's priced in with where the coin actually is. You can also flip the chart to whale flow to see whether the big money is buying or selling a given outcome.

A few things it shows right now:

- 36% chance BTC dips to $77.5k at some point this month

- 58% chance it touches $90k before the year is out

The part I'm most excited about is the Bitcoin forecast. Each of those BTC bets is really one point on a curve, so I combined all ~270 BTC markets from Polymarket and Kalshi into a single forecast for where BTC ends up, from 1 week to 1 year out. Deep markets count more than thin ones, there's a correction for long shots being overpriced, and it reruns every hour. Right now it has BTC around $82.7k on Nov 1, with an 80% chance it lands between $71k and $96k. It also gives a confidence score, which measures how much the markets agree with each other, not how bullish they are.

The markets page is free and doesn't need an account, and the headline forecast is free too. The full distribution and the list of every market behind it are in the paid plan, which is how I keep the site running.

polywhaler.com/crypto

Curious whether anyone else watches these odds, and whether the forecast matches your gut. Feedback is welcome :)

Paul Sztorc is the latest Bitcoin OG to turn his back on Lightning Network. Likening it a fraud on par with Elizabeth Holmes's Theranos, Paul says most LN payments are custodial and the user experience is hot garbage. I have to concur with his opinions. I had a terrible time setting up an LN node that needed to be online 24/7 and required BTC to be locked up in payment channels. In the end, I just used a custodial wallet that was buggy and inspired little trust. Hard pass on Lightning for me, and good to see that people are realizing that the Emperor Wears No Clothes.

This is absolutely nuts & insane. This is literally theft. This is scam. They don’t even want to return it to the sender. This is so fucked up. Now I understand why CZ is a multi billionaire. Through scam and theft LOL

What can I do now? Definitely getting a lawyer

I am genuinely all for a big pump and want this to be my lottery ticket too but I am still trying to wrap my head around what could explain such a strange set of price movements. Granted that in over a decade in crypto we are no strangers at all to strange price movements but I can't shake the feeling that even with such a big volume behind the two biggest coins on the market these movements look so unnatural since August. I could just be totally missing something very simple here so please correct me if that is the case.

OpenAI has seen another case of its AI agents going rogue—and this time, crypto is involved. In a recent report, the company detailed how an internal research model used a crypto wallet without permission to pay the fees needed to test an app on Ethereum’s Sepolia test network. Although the tokens had little real-world value, the model had no authorization to collect or spend them.

The incident happened on June 26, when the model was asked to update a crypto trading app and get its code running on Sepolia, a test version of Ethereum. The prompt gave it neither a funded wallet nor permission to spend tokens, and after failing to get free test tokens through developer services, the model wrote a script checking 362 wallet addresses linked to public recovery phrases, a crypto term that describes sets of words that can act as a password to unlock crypto accounts. It eventually found an account with enough tokens to cover the fees.

Internal logs showed that the model deliberated over whether it had permission to use the account, but then decided the public recovery phrase and the tokens’ lack of cash value made the spending acceptable. It finished the task and charged the fees to that wallet, but left the unauthorized spending out of its final report. OpenAI only discovered the incident on Sept. 25 during an audit of earlier model runs.

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/10/16/rogue-openai-agent-crypto-wallet-funds-task/?utm_source=reddit/

Every few weeks, a random token I have never heard of appears in my wallet.

I know I shouldn't interact with these tokens, as they are usually scams. What I do not understand is why anyone would spend money sending them to thousands of wallets.

Are they hoping people will try to sell the tokens and somehow fall for a scam? Or are they just trying to identify active wallets so they can target them later?

Also, is there any risk from simply receiving these tokens, even if I never interact with them? Or is it safe to just ignore them?

Quantum computers can do basic operations fairly easily. But to run the powerful algorithms that could solve hard problems (like drug design, materials science, or breaking certain codes), they need extra special resources called magic states.

By making high quality magic states much cheaper to produce, quantum computers don’t need to be nearly as huge just to support these special operations. This is a concrete step toward building smaller, more practical, error-corrected quantum computers that can actually run useful programs instead of mostly just manufacturing their own fuel.

Think of magic states as high purity fuel that a special engine needs. The old method required a massive factory (using almost the whole machine) just to refine a little bit of fuel. Cultivation is more like having a compact, efficient filter system that turns rough material into pure fuel with far less waste. Now much more of the machine can be used for the actual work.

74% of Americans no longer trust the U.S. dollar to hold its value. 61% want to learn more about owning Bitcoin.

The battle for awareness is over. The silent mutiny against fiat is already here.

There’s one problem: A landmark national study shows the way we’ve explained Bitcoin for the last decade is actively repelling the very people ready to listen.

• "Digital Gold" is dead: It ranked near the bottom in voter focus groups.
• The 55% blind spot: More than half of voters still don't know they can buy BTC through major brokerages.
• Celebrity fatigue: Everyday people don't trust billionaire CEOs or politicians—they trust friends, family, and their local advisor.

It’s time to step out of the echo chamber and speak to the 61%.

Welcome to the Daily Crypto Discussion thread. Please read the disclaimer and rules before participating.

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Consider all information posted here with several liberal heaps of salt, and always cross check any information you may read on this thread with known sources. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known "pump and dump (PnD) groups" for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and exercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here.

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Here’s how it works. The game shows you one headline about Bitcoin and the law, like a court ruling, a seizure, a state law or an IRS rule. You swipe right if you think it really happened, left if you think it’s made up.

After each swipe it tells you if you were right, explains the real story in a line or two and gives the source. It keeps a score and a streak as you go.

There are 100 headlines, half real and half fake, shuffled every round. The fakes are real stories with one detail changed, which is what makes it harder than it sounds. One of the real ones is about federal agents finding 50,000 stolen Bitcoin hidden in a popcorn tin.

I built it because a lot of Bitcoin law news gets repeated with the wrong detail, and this is a quick way to check what you actually know. It works on a phone with swipes and on a computer with the arrow keys.

https://thebitcoinact.xyz/proof-of-law

Which Bitcoin law story do you think I should add to the deck?

Been looking into Pyth more lately and I feel like it’s starting to get overlooked.

It’s not just a random oracle token. They’re actually selling first-party market data, their Q3 growth was pretty insane, and Robinhood is already using Pyth data to settle some of the 15-minute prediction markets in its new Predictions section.

Switchboard also shut down its oracle operations recently, which takes out one of Pyth’s more direct competitors.

Then there’s the buyback side. Pyth had already been using part of the DAO treasury to buy PYTH on the open market, and now they’ve approved using product revenue to keep buying more.

So you’ve basically got a real data business growing underneath the token, more mainstream adoption, less competition, and actual recurring buy pressure.

I’m not saying $1 is guaranteed or anything, but I really don’t think it’s a crazy target if they keep growing like this.

Curious what the actual bear case is because I feel like I’m missing why more people aren’t talking about it.

The field of agentic commerce, which describes the use of AI agents to carry out internet transactions, is rapidly maturing, and crypto is fueling the boom. That’s according to a new report by blockchain analytics platform Chainalysis, which found developers are increasingly giving AI agents their own budgets to buy the computing power, live web data, and code tools they need to complete tasks.

The growth of agentic commerce over the past 15 months has been steep. On Base, the Coinbase-incubated blockchain, cumulative transactions through the x402 protocol—which lets bots automatically pay for online services using crypto—rose from about 1,500 in mid-2025 to more than 138 million by the third quarter of 2026.

In practice, agentic commerce entails providing an AI bot with an allowance:  A developer funds the bot’s wallet with stablecoins—typically Circle’s dollar-pegged USDC—and the bot pays for services as it works, without asking a person to approve each purchase. When it needs help with a task, it can pay to get up-to-date information, ask a more capable AI model for help, or use an automated tool to check software code for security flaws.

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/10/14/ai-agents-shopping-spree-payments-base-blockchain-138-million-chainalysis/?utm_source=reddit/

RWA maxis pitch tokenized assets as a way to bring more liquidity onchain. But while tokenization brings TradFi liquidity, it could also isolate that liquidity from the rest of DeFi.

Some institutions use private chains or permissioned markets to meet privacy and compliance requirements. If an asset is on a private network, it may need some interoperability solution to access public DeFi markets. This solves for RWA privacy but fragments DeFi liquidity across different environments.

I'll give you one more example. Shielded balances also address the privacy bottleneck, but they create another problem. Say you want to use an RWA asset as collateral. If your position details are private, how does a lending protocol verify the collateral, calculate borrowing limits, or trigger liquidations when necessary?

What are your thoughts? How can RWA projects give institutions the privacy they need without fragmenting liquidity or giving up on DeFi composability?

Key Features:

1) Let your agents monitor the market and propose portfolio optimizations for your review on the Secure Screen. They help you get ahead, but you stay in control of your keys.

2) Tell your agent to compare prices and track new product drops and collabs. Your agent’s proposal arrives neatly in your queue, turning online shopping into a breeze.

3) Pay friends, family, and clients instantly. Agents prepare the payments, you review and approve or reject the transfer before any money leaves your account.

4) Gate your agents’ access to secrets and passwords via your secure Ledger signer. You decide what they can access autonomously, and what they need your permission for.