Update: The referendum count, in people
A factual account, sourced throughout. Corrections welcome.
These are unofficial, partial counts from Elections Alberta as reported on Tuesday, October 20 [946pm]. Counting was still under way, and the nine questions are counted after Question 10, one at a time, so they are less complete: roughly 45% of the votes on Questions 6 to 9 may still be to come, going by the 2.4 million ballots expected. Official results are due October 29. Figures are shown as votes, with the percentage in brackets.
The count in three lines
- A decisive vote to stay in Canada. About 1.47 million to 487,000, a gap of nearly 988,000, equal to about 31% of all eligible voters.
- A modest majority on immigration. Between 53% and 63% yes on the five immigration questions, with 515,000 to 849,000 people voting no on each.
- A near split on the Constitution. Questions 6, 8 and 9 are within about 3% of the votes counted, and Question 7 within about 6%. Question 8 is behind.
Question 10: remain or begin the separation process
- Remain: 1,474,344 (75.2%)
- Begin the process toward a binding separation referendum: 486,632 (24.8%)
- Gap: 987,712
Final-week polls had Remain at 66% to 76% among decided voters. The count is at the upper end of that range.
The other nine, yes and no
| Yes |
No |
Gap |
| 992,425 (53.9%) |
849,041 (46.1%) |
+143,384 |
| 910,277 (53.3%) |
796,630 (46.7%) |
+113,647 |
| 872,640 (56.1%) |
681,495 (43.9%) |
+191,145 |
| 807,530 (56.4%) |
624,107 (43.6%) |
+183,423 |
| 883,274 (63.2%) |
515,304 (36.8%) |
+367,970 |
| 690,821 (50.9%) |
665,502 (49.1%) |
+25,319 |
| 705,664 (53.2%) |
621,788 (46.8%) |
+83,876 |
| 645,689 (49.1%) |
669,144 (50.9%) |
No ahead by 23,455 |
| 665,243 (51.4%) |
630,226 (48.6%) |
+35,017 |
What the counts show
- Eight of the nine have a majority so far, and one, Question 8, does not.
- More than 515,000 voters said no on every one of the nine, and nearly 850,000 on the first.
- Some of the nine are stronger than others, but the gaps are not large when measured against the votes. Set against the votes counted, they are 7% to 26% on the immigration questions and 2% to 6% on the constitutional ones. Against all eligible voters, they are 4% to 12% and under 3%, compared with 31% for Question 10. Even the largest, Question 5 at +367,970, is about 37% of Question 10's gap.
- Questions 6, 8 and 9 are separated by 35,000 votes or fewer each, about 1% of eligible voters or less.
- Geographically, Edmonton voted no on all nine and Calgary no on eight, all but Question 5 (Global News).
What Smith said on Tuesday night
In a 14-minute pre-recorded address, broadcast on airtime paid for by the government, Smith said "the resulting vote from Albertans has given our government a clear mandate. Alberta will remain a province of Canada. Albertans will continue to be Canadians." She said that as long as she is premier she will not hold another referendum on separation, that separation will not be used as a tool to fight Ottawa, and that "our government will continue to boldly assert our province's autonomy by exercising the provincial rights guaranteed to us under Canada's Constitution," with disputes settled "within the political and legal institutions of our nation." She told Option 2 voters "I recognize you as loyal Albertans."
The reported speech did not mention the nine questions or say what a strong mandate on them would be. She is to take questions at 11:30 a.m. on Wednesday.
Before the vote she asked for "a strong mandate" on the nine (October 15) and said 50% plus one is what you would normally use. In April she said she had done an "initial culling of the questions to make sure that we found the ones that are likely to get majority support, but I'm asking them so that I can get a mandate. And if I don't get a mandate, then we'll have to address what we do at that time."
How people have reacted
- Colin Aitchison, a former UCP press secretary: "Regardless of the size of the mandate, it is a clear mandate."
- Naheed Nenshi, NDP leader: "If she wanted a mandate, she should have been able to get 85 per cent on questions like this, and she was unable to carry the day." He also said the government spent $4 million telling people to say yes.
- Melanee Thomas, a University of Calgary political scientist: the nine "do not provide a mandate for much of anything except to give Danielle Smith a bit of breathing space" with her party's internal factions.
- Andrew Knack and Jeromy Farkas, the mayors of Edmonton and Calgary: Knack called for the immigration questions to be dropped, saying "I don't want our neighbours to feel like they're not welcome in our city," and Farkas said he was proud to see a majority in his city reject them.
- Avnish Nanda, a lawyer who campaigned against the immigration questions: "We thought we would be blown out," and he said confusion over the wording may have affected the result.
- Pierre Poilievre supports Smith's immigration asks and provinces setting their own levels. Mark Carney called the result "a great result for Canada" and said Ottawa will work with the provinces on immigration levels.
- Jeffrey Rath, a separatist leader, said he will push for a special general meeting to remove Smith.
My view, based on the above
This section is my opinion. Each point rests on a fact stated earlier in this post or in the series.
On the result. Eight of the nine questions have a majority so far, and I accept that this is how democracy works. A majority is a majority.
On the size of it. When I read the counts and not only the percentages, more than 515,000 people voted no on every one of the nine, and nearly 850,000 on the first. On the Constitution, the two sides are separated by under 85,000 votes on Question 7 and by 35,000 or fewer on Questions 6, 8 and 9. Some questions are stronger than others, but measured against the votes the gaps are not large. To me that is not the "strong mandate" that was asked for, and Question 10's gap of nearly 988,000 shows what a decisive result looks like.
On what the mandate is for. I can see that the direction is clear, and a mandate has to be a mandate for something. The nine mostly asked for backing to work toward something, such as more control or a constitutional change, and none said what the rules, the fees or the timeline would be. Smith has said she needs a yes to bargain with the Prime Minister, who says Ottawa is already working on immigration levels and that constitutional change is slow and difficult. So I read it as clear on direction, thin on content, and modest in size.
On the call for unity. In her address Smith said, "Let us move forward not as a people divided by how we voted yesterday, but as neighbours, friends, Albertans and Canadians. Let us treat one another with respect and compassion." Edmonton voted no on all nine questions and Calgary on eight, and a quarter of voters chose Option 2. She called for unity. What she does with the nine will show what that means.
On how the ballot was built. By her own account, the government kept the questions "likely to get majority support." I read that as a reason to treat a yes as a weaker test of what Albertans want than an open question would have been.
On the people behind the wording. The questions bundled different ideas, and a key term, "Alberta-approved immigration status," was left undefined until after the vote. I can see the case for a reasonable waiting period before some benefits, and a ballot with one box per question could not separate that from the rest. I came to Canada from England and chose to become a Canadian, so I take seriously that people can be affected by how these words are later written. I don't think the result should be read as a verdict on all of it at once.
Where I could be wrong. The counts are partial, none of the nine is binding, and I cannot tell from a ballot why anyone voted as they did. A mandate does not need to be large to be legitimate, as Aitchison says, and the government may yet define what it is for. If the final numbers or the government's drafting differ from what I have read here, I will say so.
Limits
- All counts are unofficial and partial and will change. The votes on the nine are less complete than on Question 10, so the close ones, especially 6, 8 and 9, are not settled.
- None of the nine is binding. Analysts said the constitutional questions would need other provinces and Ottawa.
- Votes are not the same as voters. People could decline individual ballots.
Sources: Elections Alberta unofficial results as reported by CBC, CTV, Global News and Canadian Press; Smith's address of October 20 and statements of October 15 and April 2026; CBC News analysis of October 14.
