r/politics • u/PoliticsModeratorBot š¤ Bot • 4d ago
Discussion 2026 Midterms News and Updates, October 12 - October 18 (Thread 6) | Live Discussion
Please use this thread to discuss news, updates, and commentary regarding the 2026 midterm and associated elections.
You can find r/politics' list of rules here, and the subreddit's list of domains on the Approved Domain List here.
If you find a link that hasn't been posted to the main subreddit that is noteworthy, and you are not currently rate-limited by the 'queue flooding' rule of 5 posts / 24 hours and 1 post / 10 minutes, please feel free to submit the link as a post for additional visibility.
This thread will be sorted by 'newest comments first' by default. You can also sort the thread using the 'best' comment sorting method at this link.
Election News and Updates
University of Florida: 2026 Early Voting Tracker
Election Resources
- USA Today via Reddit: The 2026 election season is underway: Hereās your monthly guide with important dates, voter resources
Streaming Links
C-SPAN, NPR, the PBS NewsHour's YouTube channel, and the Associated Press' YouTube channel are all places frequently hosting relevant political streams.
Past Threads: Thread 1, Thread 2, Thread 3, Thread 4, Thread 5.
Other Event Threads
ā¢
u/tresben 6h ago
It really is crazy that we have basically 9 senate races (ME, MI, IA, OH, AK, TX, KS, NE) that are basically all within the polling margin of error that make the range of outcomes 46D-54R to 55D-45R. Just small polling errors in either direction could potentially give us either of these outcomes, though most likely we will get a result somewhere in the middle.
And thatās not even including some that could be in play with moderate polling errors like SC, FL, MN.
It really is a crazy midterm and made even more unpredictable given so many of these races are in lean red states that make it hard to truly believe the polling is accurate and hard to make assumptions based on priors given we havenāt had competitive senate races in a number of these states in quite some time, at least in the trump era. If I had to guess Iād say the polls are accurate or even slightly underestimating Dems given itās a midterm and Dems now have the educated high propensity voter base and republicans are not motivated to turn out, but I feel like I canāt assume or make predictions about elections anymore in the trump era because we constantly get surprised, both with good and bad.
ā¢
u/swagmond27 7h ago
ā¢
u/Ananiujitha 1h ago
If you're going to post Xitter links, at least describe them. Not everyone can read Xitter.
ā¢
ā¢
u/snoo_spoo 4h ago
I'll pass, thanks. If you don't think your link is important enough to post a brief summary, it's not worth a click.
ā¢
u/Vonraad 6h ago
that tweet is 100% written by chatgpt
ā¢
u/kaztrator 5h ago
Definitely. The cadence with short punchy sentences, and repeating the same points with an analogy and a conclusion, are all classic ChatGPT.
ā¢
u/blues111 Michigan 6h ago
Hate Bill Mitchell but hes not wrong per se you can't extrapolate much from vbm and early voteĀ
Long fucking ass rant to make that point though
ā¢
u/swagmond27 6h ago
I'm still scared though I mean what if he's right?
ā¢
u/ChocoboAndroid 5h ago
Probably much higher rates of early and mail in voting in 2022 during Covid. Can't really know for sure what it means. But certainly a better sign for Dems.Ā
ā¢
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 3h ago
āCovidā was largely over by that point as far as behavioral patterns were concerned.
ā¢
u/blues111 Michigan 6h ago
Could be, might also not be...what ive learned after being permanently scarred from the 2024 election is that all we can do is buckle up and enjoy the ride with a level of skepticism cause whatever happens will happen no matter what
ā¢
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 3h ago
I genuinely donāt know how people were permanently scarred from the 2024 outcome. It was absolutely clear that it was going to be about 50/50.
ā¢
u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 6h ago
Would you please start including descriptions/summaries/excerpts of tweets that you are linking?
ā¢
-4
u/ThickGur5353 8h ago
The New York times have a good article about some of the Democratic Senate races. I couldn't figure out how to copy the link ,but the title of the article isĀ "Democrats Worry That a Few Senate Races in Bluer States Arenāt Slam Dunks" And it's a freebie. It discusses the troubles that the Democratic candidates are having. One notable item is the hostility that El-Sayed has for Israel .
2
u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 8h ago
11
u/Sissy____Fist 8h ago
Alternate titles: "How Can We Squeeze More Clicks Out of Anxious Democrats?" and "Remember We Have a Vested Interest in This Being a Horse Race"
ā¢
u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 6h ago
I'm in favor of the NYT bringing back the Election Night Needle because I am pro-anxiety.
0
14
u/InfinityComplexxx 8h ago
It's understandable for people here to not believe the polls, or not get their hopes up. After all, Kamala had the crosstabs, intangibles, and even the majority of polling in her favor. But, that race was always going to be close, especially for whatver pedophile magic that gets the Right to turn up for Trump when he's on the ballot.
Today's Pod Save America has a good breakdown on the state of the upcoming midterms: the blue tsunami is real. All polls show it, all intangibles and cross tabs show it, etc. But if there was still worry about polling errors, consider this: The GOP's OWN internal polling shows them getting wiped out in the House, and the Senate as a likely loss. And simply follow the money: pulling out all $$ of NC and GA, and aggressively dumping it into Nebraska, KS, TX, and SC or all places show just how serious of a wallopping is coming.
It's OK to believe. Do your part by getting your friends, families, neighbors out to vote BLUE.
ā¢
u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 6h ago
The same way that I try to convince conservatives that climate change is real by making an argument about insurance companies and the US military planning for it, I would offer that the Republicans believe the blue wave this year will be real as evidenced by them financially triaging many races that looked competitive or safe just a few months ago.
ā¢
u/InfinityComplexxx 6h ago
Exactly. They are scrambling to funnel money into seat that THEY redistricted for THEIR advantage (although it's been known for a while how badly that would backfire).
-8
u/swagmond27 9h ago
11
u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 8h ago
Would you please start describing the tweets you are linking to instead of just dropping links?
7
u/olsaltyfingas 8h ago
Do you have anything better to do than crosspost right wing copium from twitter over here?
5
u/General-Programmer-5 8h ago
Right wing slop cope
4
u/olsaltyfingas 8h ago
Right? like while early voting has been underwway in VA, it doesn't really pick up until next week when more locations are opened. And trying to read the tea leaves on mail in returns is pointless since voting habits have changed drastically since 2022
5
u/tresben 12h ago
I think weāre gonna see the knives come out more and more the last two years of trumps term in terms of people in the administration backstabbing and turning on each other.
Everyone knows the corruption party is coming to an end so they want to get theirs before then. Likely people who wanted the press secretary job or wanted someone else for it for their own personal reasons have been in trumps ear to fire Katie Zacharia.
2
u/headbangershappyhour 8h ago
It's not just get theirs, they want to keep it too. It's going to be a race to sell out and betray everyone else in hopes of getting a deal that lets them keep at least a portion of what they stole.
5
u/Sissy____Fist 11h ago
I think it's going to be more of a mix.
People more on the periphery who are able to create distance from Trump are going to try to create distance. There are going to be a LOT of people trying to write "tell-all" books or competing to get jobs as consultants or talking heads. So there will be a fair amount of backstabbing to make $ or get airtime booked on cable news.
But I think the last two years are also going to involve at least as many people moving CLOSER to Trump in an absolute mad scramble for pardons. There are going to be congressional investigations. The Trump DOJ sure isn't going to prosecute folks for their crimes, but the fear is going to be that a Dem takes over in 2028 who will. Trump is also going to absolutely love having people suck up to him and so in many cases he will probably put off actually issuing those pardons if he can to extort them as much as he can.
So low-level staffers, younger people, and career Republicans . . . sure. Knives out, time to cash out.
People who are the most MAGA, most into the grift . . . double down until you get that pardon.
6
u/Isentrope 12h ago
The Downballot has a quarterly roundup for fundraising. The top 3 fundraisers on the Senate side were Talarico (59.6M), AES (32.7M) and Ossoff (32.1M). The top Republican was Ken Paxton at 9th place with $10.2M.
On the House side, the top fundraisers were Cait Conley in NY-17 (5.3M), AOC (4.7M) and Manny Rutinel in CO-08 (4.2M). The top Republican was Mike Johnson at 4th place with $3.8M.
https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-3q-2026-senate-and
ā¢
6
5
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 12h ago
Important to note that Republicans are outspending Dems due to dark money from Elon and other scum. Paxton got hundreds of millions from Elon.
3
u/Contren Illinois 10h ago
Also important to note that candidates get much better ad rates than super PACs. IE Talarico's money goes further than Elon's, so Elon needs to spend more to get the same impact.
1
u/InfinityComplexxx 8h ago
Correct, commercial $ from PACS is about 3x higher than if candidates spent the $.
-2
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 9h ago
No longer true. SCOTUS reversed that this week. They all get the same rates.
1
u/Hourlypump99 8h ago
That is not true at all, there is no such ruling allowing SuperPACs to have access to LUC rates that candidates get.
Only recently have political parties and their joint fundraising committees to have access to LUC rates, as per a ruling by SCOTUS three days ago.
Elon Musk is donating mostly through SuperPACs which, not by statute, regulation, or court order, have access to the LUC broadcast ad rates candidates and parties get.
1
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 8h ago
My mistake. I misremembered fundraising committees as being super PACs.
ā¢
u/Hourlypump99 7h ago
Almost every last dollar Musk has given in the 2026 cycle has been through PACs.
And about 30% of money donated, if not more, at this stage in the cycle gets spent on advertising on television.
It costs usually 3-4x as much to place a political advertisement on broadcast TV in the month of October as a PAC versus the discounted LUC rates candidates get.
Point being while Musk is donating a lot, itās getting diminished at a much higher rate than Talaricoās campaign cash.
2
u/Isentrope 13h ago
Carolina Forward has a useful tool to track the early vote in NC, including comparisons to 2022 since people are looking at trends. Early voting started in North Carolina yesterday and seemed to be significantly higher than 2022 benchmarks.
https://carolinaforward.org/news/the-carolina-forward-turnout-tracker/
3
u/phillyfanjd1 10h ago
The Georgia Secretary of State also has an excellent voting hub:
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-unofficial-turnout
If anyone wants to compare the unofficial data to the previous elections: https://results.sos.ga.gov/results/public/Georgia
0
u/ThickGur5353 13h ago
I said this before. If the midterms were about President Trumps low approval rating, the Democrats should be up by 10 points in almost every race. But they're not. Most of the races are within the margin of error. So the midterms could go in any direction.
5
u/olsaltyfingas 11h ago
Numerous polls show them up 8-12 points on the generic ballot....
1
u/Hourlypump99 8h ago
Yeah I think OPās numbers are off, Trump isnāt down 10 points in approval he is down 20-25 points in approval.
I think their gist was how Demās margins are way short of Trumpās disapproval differential, they just got the numbers wrong when making their point.
1
u/olsaltyfingas 8h ago
Yeah but trump isnt on the ballot, in same ways the election is about him, but it's all more localized. It's not going to be a direct translation, people are more open to voting for people that arent trump, even if they dislike trumps policies. The democrat brand is also pretty shit, so it's still kind of a miracle they're even polling this well, but a lot of it is self-inflicted by republicans
1
u/Hourlypump99 8h ago
Yes the aggregate GCB right now is D+9 while Trumpās aggregate disapproval is at -22.
Meaning the factors you mention among others have the Democrats general margin in the midterms at only 40% of what Trumpās general margin of disapproval is at.
1
u/olsaltyfingas 8h ago
I also think you will see people that arent necessarily wanting to vote dem but will make that choice at the box, these past two years have been a disaster, the first trump term was chaotic, but a lot of people enjoyed a very good economy then with no new wars. I think people are just largely sick of Trump too, aside from his weird boomer base that will never give him up, he's going to lose the gains on the youth vote that he got
ā¢
u/Hourlypump99 7h ago
Thatās an under discussed part of this election.
Last Trump midterm he lost the House by 9 points despite having a 55-60% approval on his handling of the economy.
He now has a 20-25% approval on his handling of the economy.
Itād be hard to believe that D+9 isnāt the floor for this election.
4
u/Sissy____Fist 12h ago
Either I don't understand this comment or you don't understand the situation.
The Democrats ARE "up" by about 8 or 9 points on the "generic ballot" . . . if you just ask people which party they prefer, they choose Dems roughly 54-45 (on average, depending how you ask.)
When you say "most of the races are within the margin of error," you are presumably talking about Senate races. "Within the margin of error" is an enormous shift in states like Iowa, Alaska, Ohio, Texas, and Kansas that all voted for Trump in 2024 by double-digit margins. Even if Democrats lose narrowly in all five of those races (possible!) that's a huge swing . . . and it's pretty obviously and directly the result of dissatisfaction with Trump and, by extension, Republicans who don't stand up to him or make any use of checks/balances.
So, at least in a sense, the midterms ARE about Trump's low approval and Dems more or less ARE outperforming precedent in traditionally "red" states by double digit margins. The House is almost certain to flip, and if Republicans hold onto the Senate by their fingertips it will only be because of their structural advantages in that chamber where they can hold more seats despite getting fewer votes.
-1
u/ThickGur5353 12h ago
The generic balot is really useless. The house races and the Senate races are local to theĀ States and geographic areas within the state.. for the house races. These are the races that are mostly within the margin of error. I mean Michigan should be an easy win for the Democrats, but the senate race is very close.
1
u/GormanOnGore 9h ago
Michigan has a sub-optimal candidate (though I still think heāll pull it off)
11
u/TheCr1msonShadow 13h ago
Thereās no universe the gop holds the house. That is basically guaranteed right now, the incumbent president has almost never held control of the house. Ā
This is a fucking awful year for Dems in the senate. The fact that theyāre this close should flabbergast you. We should have no chance, but we look like weāre picking up fucking Alaska.Ā
1
2
u/InfinityComplexxx 8h ago
House has been gone since the GOP gutted Medicare. Everything since then, which has been A LOT, has only solidified that. At this point, the question is if it'll be a 40+ seat wipeout, or less.
3
u/Biokabe Washington 11h ago
Yeah, this is something worth remembering:
In 2024, if you had told me there was a plausible path to 55 Dem seats in the Senate, I would have said you were delusional.
Yet here we are. I'm not going to predict that all of the close seats will go to Democrats, but if you look at polling the Democrats are either leading or within the MOE to end up with 55 seats, with potential pick-ups in AK, IA, KS, TX, NC, ME, OH and even NE. GA, which looked like a danger for a Republican flip, is not even close. NC is so far away from the Republicans that they've pulled spending there.
Again, I don't predict that all of those will flip. But the fact that it's even plausible that they would shows how dismal Trump's first two years have been.
6
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 13h ago
Thats not really how it works. Midterms are about local races and the president is not on the ballot. If this were a presidential election year, that would make more sense. The generic congressional ballot, which is as close to the metric as you can get for what you're asking for, is between +9 and +11, so exactly what you think it should be.
Midterms can of course go in any direction. Its almost certain to go the Dems way in the House. It is about 60/40 in the Senate - probably closer to 50/50.
5
u/Titan3692 13h ago
Trump defied polling expectations in 2016 and 2024 because low propensity voters showed up exclusively for him. They just don't bother when it's the GOPedo only.
3
u/Many_Estate1581 12h ago
And in fact, 2018 was a great year for dems in the house, and 2022 was a red trickle when a red wave was predicted. But also we all need to go vote
2
u/snoo_spoo 13h ago
This. It's likely going to come down to whether casual voters show up for either party. And the cost of everything going up and up makes it more likely that the casual voters will be in a mood to turf out Republicans. Trump really shouldn't have gone with, "pretend I'm on the ballot".
3
10
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 14h ago edited 13h ago
The question of whether or not polls are wrong has been going through my head like a freight train for the past couple of days. I just read this very detailed post by Nate Silver going through all of the ways they could be, but also couldn't be. Very worth reading. Note that it is paywalled to an extent.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/what-if-the-polls-are-wrong-again
TL:DR;/DWTP (didn't want to pay): It's complicated, but his model, FLIPR, takes this into account. Basically, if the polls are wrong by about 3pts towards Republicans, Dems still more than likely take the House, but they probably don't take the Senate. But if they're 3pts towards the Dems, the Republicans will see a generational wipe out. If the polls are wrong, this outcome is equally as possible.
Its impossible to say at the moment whether or not the polls are wrong. We won't know until the end.
Edit again for more resources: Coincidentally I am listening to todays Pod Save America episode (three former Obama staffers) discuss this very thing. At the risk of getting temporarily banned for I believe the 4th time in my career, I will decline to post the transcript of the discussion. But it's worth the listen. They're saying they understand poll skepticism and anxiety, so if you don't want to watch the polls, watch the money. They are moving all of their money away from seats they thought they could flip and funneling it into the seats they redrew to give them more seats. They're worried they're going to lose those districts. The professionals whose job it is to maintain the house and senate are now thinking the house is impossible to keep.
About 7 min in.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4uKd8CFuC3Yj8e6ezW254G?si=61a2fa76da2a4d17
ā¢
u/InfinityComplexxx 6h ago
I also posted a bit about the Pod Save America episode, but yes, the GOP's tacticians are the ones showing very real panic. They are moving money to races that they absolutely didn't think they'd have to be defending, and their redistricting plan is blowing up massively in their face (as predicted).
The GOP certainly doesn't think the polls are wrong, to be brief. They are show very panic about how bad the election will be. The Republicans are losing, it's just a matter of how badly.
3
u/dudettte 13h ago
my personal rubicon is when democrats start feel positive about florida. then i know is delusional. iāve seen those.
yes biting my nails.
on positive note - democrats over performed in elections since 2024 - that is significant.
also american median american voter is schizophrenic and trump is old news at this point.
but yes nervous.3
u/Sissy____Fist 12h ago
Agreed. I can sort of see the argument for Dems feeling like there's a chance in, e.g., South Carolina even though personally I think it's a pretty slim chance.
But Florida is where things start to feel like delusional grasping. I think it's still worth it to support Nixon and try to build up political infrastructure. There's a future for competitive races there with appropriate organizing. But I'm not holding my breath for this election.
1
u/olsaltyfingas 12h ago
There are a few house races that I would be interested in seeing the outcome in florida, which is what I'd be more hopeful about, but senate and gov is really a stretch goal that is on the far end of a democrat overperformance. It's not outside the realm of possibility, but it's unlikely, but who knows, Trump was the unlikely win in 2016 so stranger things have happened.
3
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 13h ago
I've seen hope about Florida, but no one that seriously believes that it can be won.
2
u/Many_Estate1581 13h ago
Yeah, no prediction happening right now puts Florida competitive. Everyone has it outside the margin of error
3
7
-6
u/swagmond27 1d ago
2
16h ago
[removed] ā view removed comment
2
u/swagmond27 15h ago
Brother I'm not a republican I'm just confused as shit I don't really know what to trust on Twitter so I kinda need help with the sources
1
3
u/Blue_Phoenix512 15h ago
Donāt trust what you read on X. Not to mention, no one knows who the votes are for. People need to stop assuming that red is voting for red and blue is voting for blue.
13
u/runawaydoctorate 1d ago
I'm not sure I'm following. The CURRENT early vote tally for the Dems in Ohio is roughly a third of the FINAL 2024 tally and this is somehow bad news?
6
u/allianceofficer 1d ago
Ohio does not provide party registration except related to Absentee ballots.
3
u/blues111 Michigan 15h ago
Yeah was gonna say the same...could it end up bad for dems? Yeah but when you model the turnout based on county results in previous elections you are making pretty strong assumptions on turnout its assuming similar turnout to say 2024 which was a red wave year and 2022 which also was fairly red
I mean both sides kind of are? We wont know how good or bad these results are for dems until they actually start getting counted reading the early vote tea leaves is silly
-5
u/swagmond27 1d ago
7
u/leontes Pennsylvania 1d ago
Good news, bad news. If itās Early Vote related itās no news, really.
8
u/snoo_spoo 1d ago
This. A lot of people are expecting some sort of fuckery this year so this might just be people wanting to get their votes in as soon as possible.
8
u/Isentrope 1d ago
House Majority PAC (House Dem superPAC) dropped a whopping $50M in spend just now, with $2.2M in PA-01, $1.7M in ME-02, $1.1M in WI-01, and $1.1M in MI-04. These are significant sums for seats that are likely to be in the upper 220s/low 230s in terms of a hypothetical Democratic majority, and WI-01, MI-04 and PA-01 are seats where Dems will likely hold the seat if it flips (WI is likely getting redistricted, MI-04 is zooming left, PA-01 is being held down solely because Fitz is a moderate R).
https://bsky.app/profile/purrtah.bsky.social/post/3mxxk4wkekc2x
13
u/Isentrope 1d ago
JB Pritzker's superPAC is dropping $4.4M across 9 House races, with $1M going to shore up NM-02 and $770K going to long shot flip AR-02.
2
26
u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 1d ago
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mxxa7m4c2s2l
Q: Can you name a time when you voted against Trump and it changed the outcome?
SUSAN COLLINS: At one point, I had organized people to vote against Sec. Hegseth. At the very last minute one of our Republicans changed his mind. Otherwise he would've been defeated.
Q: So it didn't change the outcome
12
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 1d ago edited 1d ago
āSure, let me give you an example of how I directly failed the American peopleā¦ā
6
u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 1d ago
4
u/TheDoctorDB 16h ago
Hey now, we won that war in, like, a day! Magnificent victory! The rest has just been a prolonged insurance effort. Gotta maintain the victory, you know?
3
6
u/purpletree37 1d ago
https://www.newson6.com/oklahoma-politics/oklahoma-governor-poll-mazzei-munson
Oklahoma Governor:
39% (R) to 36% (D) among likely voters
24
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 1d ago edited 1d ago
Opt-in poll of 128 people with a 12-15pt margin of error.
This is not a serious poll and should be wholly disregarded.
6
u/ProfessionalMall5413 1d ago
I have a lot of free time to read articles, listen to the focus group podcasts, and have some dumb family members. It takes so remarkably little to maintain their permission structure to vote Republican. They want a last-minute piece of propaganda right before they go to vote to justify continuing to vote against their interest. They're driven by fear of losing what little is dwindling away. They'll vote harder to prevent others from getting welfare, or to improve healthcare, like clenching more tightly to prevent sand from slipping through their fingers.
I truly believe that if the election happened today and out in the open, that the blue wave would happen. But when people are by themselves in the booth, and the last thing they heard pricks that innate fear response in their brains, that the Republicans are going to win enough to hold onto power. Not to mention the blatant efforts to make it harder to vote for "certain" people, or discount their votes altogether.
16
u/jlmawp 1d ago
I have a feeling that the key this election will be more āIām not going to voteā, rather than having to make a choice.
11
u/ARoseandAPoem 1d ago
This is what Iām hoping for in Texas, that republicans either just stay home or vote the libertarian option.
15
u/Sissy____Fist 1d ago
If we're in the realm of the anecdotal, I really think a lot of traditional R voters are going to stay home. Obviously there are plenty of "true believers" who have sunk so much into MAGA that they will cling to whatever lie as you suggest.
But people I work with (and older folks around where my parents live) who would normally lean Republican are mostly trying to bury their heads in the sand. Maybe there is that last minute call to arms, but it won't break through to all of them because many are fastidiously avoiding the news. They got tired of having to rationalize and justify everything, so they just shut it off. They're angry about receiving texts and campaign mailers. They're not going to vote Dem by any means, but they will sooner stay home than put themselves in that booth. They're tired and frustrated and would rather not think about it. They'll be in their living rooms watching police procedurals and reality TV.
Admittedly this is probably a specific demographic of middle-aged white suburban "soft"-MAGA. And yet it's worth noting that while FOX still consistently tops cable ratings, their September viewership was down from '25 to '26 even as CNN and MSNOW slightly ticked up. At a time when normal people would usually be starting to tune into politics in a serious way, I think there's a specific sort of older suburban white person who is deliberately putting their fingers in their ears and trying to block it out.
8
u/AcademicPublius Colorado 1d ago
I don't put a whole lot of credence into EV numbers. They're finicky, and not great at modeling the electorate if substantial changes in pattern of voting take place (as I'm more or less expecting for mail-in/EV for Democrats generally).
But if you do set your watch by such things:
Iowa had its first day of early voting yesterday. Submitted ballots were D+27 by party registration. In 2022, first-day ABEV ballots were D+11. And in 2024, it was D+7.
More on the EV blog: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-early-vote-blog
https://bsky.app/profile/gelliottmorris.com/post/3mxwjr7xeid2i
9
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 1d ago
I've seen reports of EV looking historic on day one, just to be significantly leveled on day 2 enough times this week to just disregard it all together. At this point I am trying not to put any stock into when someone votes, as long as it happens before the polls close on Nov 3
7
u/olsaltyfingas 1d ago
We're seeing pretty significant changes in voting habits, IPEV is becoming one of the most popular methods and mail-in feels risky and seems like a relic of covid era politics for a lot of states not used to it. Anecdotally, nobody I know personally VBMs in maryland anymore, but everyone did in 2022 and 2020
3
u/thepotplant 18h ago
You can expect in person early voting to increase in popularity if my country is anything to go by - here in New Zealand we're up to over 60% of voters having voted in person before election day. It's just super convenient to vote at a time that suits.
3
u/AcademicPublius Colorado 1d ago
That and this electorate doesn't really look like previous years' electorates, so a 1:1 comparison isn't going to get you a good evaluation of what the electorate looks like day of. E-Day was pretty blue in Virginia last year, for instance.
15
u/blues111 Michigan 1d ago
https://x.com/kathrynw5/status/2110730602916036877
Fox News poll:
Top concerns:
Corruption in government 88% Extremely/Very concerned to 12% not veryĀ
Inflation and high prices
85% Extremely/Very concerned to 15% not veryĀ
- Gas prices
83% Extremely/Very concerned to 17% not veryĀ
Wouldn't have expected corruption to be up there and so high but now I wonder if its the same bullshit as "protecting democracy" where both sides of the fence said that was most important because they both thought the other side was corrupt
3
u/echofinder 11h ago
they both thought the other side was corrupt
Definitely some chunk of that 88% is people mad about Somali daycares and judges blocking so much of Trump's insane bullshit.
10
u/Hourlypump99 1d ago
Iād say corruption in government and cost of living being top issues while Republicans are in charge of everything is probably pretty good for Dems.
5
u/GoodIdea321 America 1d ago
Dems have to campaign on it more and focus on it in the House and Senate win or lose.
3
u/SativaSammy 1d ago
I'm sitting here trying to figure out what corruption their poll could be referring to.
Here we all know about Qatar Force One but like... do they?
Or is this just more "Hunter Biden's laptop" shit?
1
u/Hourlypump99 1d ago
Are you asking what corruption there is in this White House?
6
u/SativaSammy 1d ago
I'm asking what Republican voters are thinking is 'corruption' because the media they consume tells them this is the most honest and transparent administration the world has ever seen.
I'm assuming it's the Guillfoyle and Don Jr shit, but I don't know.
1
u/Hourlypump99 1d ago
Well Iād assume a large portion of the 88% that are concerned with corruption also almost completely overlaps with the 64% that also disapprove of Trump.
As in they find the varying levels of corruption heās involved in concerning.
Iād say the 36% that approve of Trump fall into that 12% category that arenāt too concerned about corruption or think of the ādeepstateā as corruption, meaning any leftover people in government not directly hired by Trump.
Not to discount there probably being a subset of 36% that think all people in government are corrupt, but approve of everything else Trump is doing.
5
u/ISwallowedALego 1d ago
This admin just throws the blatant pay to play in our faces, it makes it hard to ignore
-6
u/swagmond27 1d ago
4
u/Blue_Phoenix512 1d ago
I hate it when people try to gage what is happening by using ballot returns by party. No one knows who these people have marked on their ballots. Just because it GOP does not mean that person voted for the GOP candidate.
12
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 1d ago edited 1d ago
Republicans are now resorting to hoping that the polling is wrong.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/10/15/republicans-cling-to-last-midterm-hope-bad-polling-01118161
It's almost certain that it will be or at least off +/- from what it currently says, and in tight races, that will make a difference. But it would have to be very wrong for it to mean they retain the house. The GOP operatives in this make good points. Polling has failed to accurately measure Republican engagement in the past, as recently as 2024. That is true. But it goes both ways. In 2022 it was looking like it was going to be a slaughter for the Dems, and while it was bad, it wasn't as bad as the polls made it appear. They're hoping it's the same case this year for the GOP.
Edit: This is also an interesting point made at the very end of the article. The polling shows historical levels of dissatisfaction with Republicans.
The strategist also noted that the polling right now reflects a change in the electorate as profound as those seen after Watergate and 9/11.
āIt would be so historically unprecedented youād have to presuppose weāre staring down the barrel of a generational national trauma that no one is aware of,ā the strategist said.
I am inclined to agree with this assessment on some level. I agree that the polls are probably wrong in some areas, especially the Midwest. This strategist is saying that the only reason you would see these types of results is because of a national tragedy like Watergate or 9/11. But those were singular events that are easily attributable to a polling or sentiment shift. What about 600+ days of constant chaos, micro-tragedies, and any number of events that in the past would be considered on the level of Watergate?
2
u/jackmon 1d ago
Polling over the last decade has struggled to capture Republican voters.
Does anyone have any ideas why this is true? Why is it suddenly hard to capture specifically Republican voter sentiment? Trump voters don't seem like they have any problem shouting their allegiance loudly to the world. Why is it so hard to poll them?
1
u/W4RD06 1d ago
Pew Research just put out an article about this. Its at least partially because Republicans are answering polls at lower rates than Democrats and causing a partisan non response bias in the polling. It seems to be more pronounced in presidential election years. Whether Trump specifically caused this or his candidacy just coincided with this trend or something in between is up for debate.
Read about it here: https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2026/09/16/why-many-polls-need-to-weight-on-party-affiliation-or-past-vote/
3
u/jaymef 1d ago
a lot of people are embarrassed to admit that they agree with Republican policies
1
u/whateveryouwant4321 1d ago
this is why the polling has been so poor in midwestern states during the trump era. these white people know it's the wrong vote, and they have a reputation for being nice. so they'll avoid polls that will make them look like racists or they'll lie about their intent.
1
u/olsaltyfingas 1d ago
Many of these northern Midwest states are greatly affected by the Canadian trade war. I wouldn't be so certain that they are off significantly, pollsters also hedge in certain polls by selecting demographics that lean republican to offset this behavior. I just find it very difficult to believe there is a massive polling error against the democrats this year when everything points to the opposite, if anything there may be a polling error in favor of the democrats based on the above hedging.
I'm willing to eat crow if I'm wrong, but nothing about the current environment screams massive polling error to me
2
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 1d ago
The article mentions it. They just generally have been more reluctant to engage with polls, their demographics are shifting to a younger subset who do not answer unsolicited phone calls, and over all they increasingly dont care about polls. They are going to vote the way they vote. Also, there are more and more opt-in polls which are to say suspect at best. Those are getting wildly untrustworthy as their methods means results can be easily skewed or misleading. Take the Oklahoma governors poll that came out the other day showing Mazzei and Munson statistically tied. Well that was an opt-in poll with 128 people and the margin of error was 12-15pts. The poll is trash, its meaningless. But the results are being shared as if its trustworthy and suddenly you have people in Oklahoma thinking that Munson can pull off a generational upset. Shit like this is happening all over. So take that, along with Republicans already declining in participation, plus the known trend that as the presidents approval goes down so does their parties engagement with polls, you get stuff like this.
1
u/olsaltyfingas 1d ago
to be fair, I have not seen a lot of people taking that oklahoma poll seriously, usually it's just a joke
1
1
u/jackmon 1d ago
I guess what I find strange about this the reluctance hypothesis is that it seems like that would apply to R's and D's equally. Also, maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying, but I don't think Republican's demographics have skewed younger in the last ten years.
6
2
u/Adventurous-Tone-311 1d ago
Nah, no shot.Ā
It takes higher unemployment before you start to see party flipping en masse. The people arenāt upset enough yet, and there really hasnāt been any catastrophic event big enough to trigger outrage.Ā
MAGA is a cult.Ā
2
u/olsaltyfingas 1d ago
I think you disregard how much people liked Trump because he was, to his credit, pretty anti-war. The Iran war has been an unmitigated disaster
7
u/SkiingAway 1d ago
On the other hand, there's really not much to be happy about out of this admin as a rank and file right-winger?
And there's a lot of individual interests within the right-wing that have a lot to be unhappy with right now.
War hawk, pro-military, veteran, etc? Hegseth is rather obviously presiding over military failure, the destruction of American military power/prestige, making the military look like incompetent fools, and mistreating the troops.
Small business and manufacturing hate the tariffs and continually insane trade policies.
Farmers hate the tariffs, trade policies, and the price of diesel.
Tradespeople - diesel + tariffs/trade policy on all their materials
Truckers and rural people - diesel + gas pricing
Close to 50% of Republicans have soured on AI/data centers but the admin is full steam ahead.
Etc, etc, etc.
IMO it's possible the polling shifts are real, and that it's a death by a thousand cuts situation. Enough individual bad decisions that have alienated enough different groups within the right-wing coalition to result in a big overall shift.
2
10
u/bryan-healey 1d ago
polling right now reflects a change in the electorate as profound as those seen after Watergate and 9/11.
it's not impossible that we are wildly underestimating how much pain people are feeling from inflation and economic stagnation. I don't have any special data or anything, but that would not be a shock to me.
4
u/Efficient-Youth-6985 1d ago
America has utterly alienated every single ally and trading partner it has in the world, including its former best friend Canada, for literally no reason. Literally threatening annexation of Europe and implying annexation of Canada. It will take probably many decades before there's even a chance of going back to how things used to be. Maybe never. It makes Watergate look incredibly tame by comparison. And that's just one aspect of the shitshow.
4
u/Isentrope 1d ago
AdImpact with a graphic showing the number of attack ads aired against each candidate. The OH Senate race tops the chart, with Husted the target of the most negative ads in the cycle so far, followed by Brown and Talarico. Paxton is much further down, at a little more than 3/5ths as many negative ads as against Talarico.
13
u/Isentrope 1d ago
Bloomberg reports that the geography of inflation has changed. Where it used to be that blue cities were the primary areas where inflation was disproportionately hitting the population, it is now in rural areas with diesel and gas going up so much.
2
u/circuitloss Arizona 1d ago
I think this is actually very insightful. Diesel prices, in particular, disproportionately impact rural areas. The tariffs impact everyone, but they have also impacted farmers in significant ways.
It's also very, very hard to deny that Trump explicitly promised not to start any new wars....and then literally started a new war.
11
u/Hourlypump99 1d ago
This might explain the huge leftward shifts in red and especially rural red states, while some urban blue state polling has been lackluster for Democrats.
9
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 1d ago
That's good news. For too long rural folks have been able to live in an alternate reality when it comes to things like this. Big cities get hit hard, rural people are shielded and continue to believe the economy is good. Now whether or not they are able to draw the right conclusions and appropriately place the blame is another story.
12
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 1d ago
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-midterms-gop-fears-election-rout-12574200
"President Donald Trump took a shifting tone on the midterms on Wednesday, pointing out that even if Republicans lose control of the House, Senate, or both, he would remain the U.S. commander-in-chief.
āIām here whether we win this or not,ā he told reporters in Arizona and Montana."
"Even if your mom marries someone else, I am still your dad." - Trump
2
2
8
u/ex0thermist 1d ago
"Even if you marry someone else, I'm still your abusive ex stalking and harrassing you until someone stops me."
3
u/Isentrope 1d ago
State Navigate is out with district polls in PA, showing Dems flipping 2 state senate seats but Rs flipping 1 from them. The state senate currently has a Republican majority but the lieutenant governor cannot break ties, so Dems would need to flip 4 seats if they were to lose one to control the chamber.
7
u/PureIsometric 1d ago
It seems to always feel like this every election since Trump that Dems will do well and boom results are in and they did not turn up.
4
u/olsaltyfingas 1d ago
I mean 2020 was absolutely insane for turnout fore the democrats, unfortunately it also was pretty good for republicans
3
u/IntelligentDepth8206 1d ago
The difference is that republican morale is in the dirt and they're running absolutely garbage candidates in a handful of races. Paxton, Marshall, Collins, etc. A step down from a Roy Moore but still possible
5
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 1d ago edited 1d ago
I understand what you're saying but the data shows that they are going to turn up. The only thing that absolutely must happen is that the Dems need to win the House, even if it's by 1 vote. Everyone across the political spectrum believes that is inevitable. Anything after that is a bonus.
There were clues that the Dems were not going to win well before election day and leading right up to it in 2024. There were tons of reports of Republicans seeing opportunity in data and they were growing their plans instead of triaging. That is not happening this year.
I have been watching for things like "Republicans seem to see something in X area, despite recent polling." and I haven't seen it one single time.
Edit: Speaking of which, Trump also seems to believe they are going to lose.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-midterms-gop-fears-election-rout-12574200In 2024 the polls said one thing and internal party data said something different. This year, all data mostly aligns. Republicans are more than likely fucked, at least in the house. It's just a matter of how bad.
1
6
u/Isentrope 1d ago
Republicans have abandoned their effort to flip NY-03, held by moderate Democrat Tom Suozzi. Previously, they had invested as much as $11M into the effort via superPAC money, but Democrats never followed suit, and it doesn't appear like there was enough evidence of movement there for Republicans to continue that expensive investment.
5
u/Isentrope 1d ago
AARP is out with a poll of only the House seats that Cook Political rates as lean D, tossup or lean R, finding Democrats leading the GCB by a 49-46 margin. In Dem held seats, Dems lead by 1, while in R held seats (the vast majority of the seats), Dems lead by 5.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2110744674675945544?s=20
2
u/IM_KYLE_AMA 1d ago
So Dems have a larger lead in GCB overall, but in lean/tossups they have a +3 advantage?
2
u/GeorginaFlopworthy United Kingdom 1d ago
Democrats are ahead in the āLean Democratā grouping by 9, Toss-ups by 4, with Republicans up by 2 in the āLean Republicanā grouping
6
u/Isentrope 1d ago
The RNC is massively increasing its coordinated ad buy with Ashley Hinson, from $500K reported yesterday to $2.7M. The RNC is able to take advantage of preferential ad rates that candidates enjoy when running coordinated ad buys, which are no longer capped thanks to a recent SCOTUS decision.
6
u/Isentrope 1d ago
2022 GOP senate nominee Don Bolduc has endorsed Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas in New Hampshire over former GOP Senator John Sununu:
1
u/swagmond27 1d ago
1
3
u/snowbit 1d ago
But who are that huge block of unaffiliated voting for, is what matters.
1
u/Isentrope 1d ago
Reminder that Ohio does not track party registration, so the data we see about "Dems" or "Reps" is which primary they've voted in in the last 2 years, assuming they didn't vote in another party's primary in that time too. As Ohio was essentially uncontested in 2024 and moderately contested at best in 2026, both parties have few "members". For campaigns and people who buy the data, they can tell how many previous primaries and elections a person has voted in and what party they voted for in a primary, but that's about as much as you can use to model partisanship.
Presumably Cold Spark has this data, so they may be able to model this, but a lot of that is going to be under the hood and you would have to take it on faith that they are sharing accurate data, as they do have a horse in the race (they're a GOP consulting firm).
1
u/IntelligentDepth8206 1d ago
Early in-person voting is still new ("politics new" in a state where even dems are conservative) in Ohio. During trumps first presidential run, you couldn't vote early in-person at all and you had to have an excuse to vote absentee (and absentees where out for a shorter duration). That plus republicans sending the message they will sabotage mail-in ballots is obviously going to decrease early dem vote.
1
u/Kind_Way2176 1d ago
We've had early in person on ohio since the debacle of 2004. You're info is wrong
3
u/olsaltyfingas 1d ago
I'd try not to read the tea leaves of early voting returns from Republicans wish casting a victory. Dem voting habits are likely to change dramatically this year
3
u/Isentrope 1d ago
Yougov has a visual of President Trump and fmr. President Biden's approvals at this point in their terms. President Trump's second term approval is now much lower than it was at this point in his first term.
In Trump's first term, his approvals had actually dropped to their low point in December right as the TCJA was signed, but had recovered considerably after tax rebates went out and his numbers on the economy were quite high. By the 2018 midterm, Trump's approval was sitting at -7 in some polls, which roughly matched the generic congressional ballot that year.
4
u/Hourlypump99 1d ago
If Trumpās approval differential matches the generic congressional ballot again this year would be D+20.
3
u/olsaltyfingas 1d ago
This is what's making me feel like the +7-10D generic ballot polls may actually be accurate
3
11
u/Efficient-Youth-6985 2d ago
people who plan to use their vote to help ukraine in two weeks (or to help anything else) - why are you waiting? you can call your reps TODAY and demand something be done. now is the time you have maximum influence over their actions.
12
u/KollardBlue 2d ago
Damn I think talarico's got it
1
u/Titan3692 13h ago
If independents show up and break big for him (like 70/30), then it might be enough to overcome the baked-in GOP advantage. If indies stay home, he loses by at least 5.
3
6
u/Winnie_rulez Canada 1d ago
I'm still prepared to be disappointed. It's absolutely insane that the polls are still so close. It's also insane that the Republicans have spent close to half a billion dollars in Texas alone -- all because Trump wanted Paxton instead of Cornyn.
6
u/AStrangerWCandy 1d ago
I'm an anti-Trump R and I'm legit fascinated to see how this turns out and if so many senate seats in traditionally ruby red states can actually flip if its that bad.
2
u/Hungry_Culture 1d ago
It's going to be close and can still go either way. Paxton has been running a lot of anti data center, anti flock camera, and anti trans people ads out here in rural Texas to drive up the rural vote, which is why I think the polls are tightening.
4
u/Winnie_rulez Canada 1d ago
And if rural voters weren't generally so ignorant, they'd realize that Paxton is actually pro data centers and pro flock cameras. Talarico is a lot more likely to keep data centers from being built in their counties, and keep flock cameras from appearing in their trailer parks.
3
-2
u/swagmond27 2d ago
7
u/Candid_Resolution_58 1d ago
Umm I think you should probably at least read what you are positing. The info graphic shows Democrats having 44k more votes. But assumes a 44k Republican firewall. Not saying this is good or bad news for either side, but posting random people that post incorrect AI images is not good.
21
u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 2d ago
I am just learning that Talarico did an AMA in this subreddit 8 years ago: Iām James Talarico, an educator and proud Democrat running to become the first millennial elected to the Texas House of Representatives! Ask Me Anything!
3
u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 2d ago
This ad from the Dem nominee in Mississippi for Senate is probably really effective: Post by @50fifty50.bsky.social ā Bluesky
11
u/dokikod Pennsylvania 2d ago
I was so impressed with Talarico in the CNN Town Hall with Erin Burnett. He is so genuine and authentic. He doesn't have have a fake or dishonest bone in his body. I could listen to him for hours. He has a real shot to be the next U.S. Senator from Texas. That would be incredible.
-18
ā¢
u/Deliberate_Dodge South Dakota 4h ago
Rasmussen Michigan Senate poll showing Dr. Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers by 2 points, 46%-44%. Poll date October 12-14.
For comparison, Rasmussen's poll on the Michigan Senate race between Rogers and Elissa Slotkin from October 9-14 in 2024 showed a 44%-44% tie.