Here are my current Best Picture predictions after seeing You Can See Everything, as well as what else I think they'll get

1. La Bola Negra - Is it risky to have at #1? Yeah probably but idk I got a weird feeling, It's easily the biggest challenger and I'm banking on the fact it's more timely and more emotional than The Odyssey as well as the fact Nolan just swept for Oppenheimer and it's very rare for a director to sweep twice especially for back to back films. La Bola Negra has a ton of support and after it's TIFF people's choice I don't think it should be counted out
2. The Odyssey - Obviously a deserving juggernaut, It's not even a question of this making the cut the real question is how much and is it gonna win? And that I think is a bit more complicated because as I mentioned it's rare for a director to sweep twice but not impossible
3. Dune: Part Three - Honestly I'm not counting out the possibility of a possible ROTK treatment if the film really sticks the landing, Villeneuve is one of the biggest directors in the world so it'd be a great time to give him his oscar, I'm not betting on it but I'm very open to the possibility
4. Wild Horse Nine - I don't think it's McDonagh's best personally but Malkovich should and probably will win imo, It's still pretty good and I think it's the clear winner for Original Screenplay
5. The Debut - Also have seen it, I don't love it as much as everyone else does honestly but Moore and Giamatti were great, Moore especially like pretty easy win for Actress, Giamatti absolutely is in winning contention as well, He wouldn't be my personal pick but I wouldn't be upset if he won for this.
6. You Can See Everything - This is one of the best films of the year period. It's very likely to be a lot of critics' #1 or #2, I don't wanna get too deep into it just in case you haven't seen it but it absolutely should get in and honestly I think it will, I think A24 knows what they have in this and it would be cool for it to be the first documentary nominated for Best Picture. Also yes I have [REDACTED] in, Why not? There's room and I like taking risks
7. Project Hail Mary - Still one of the better crowd pleasers of the year, Strong in tech categories, Gosling I think will be safe, Amazon's biggest contender, Yeah Safe for a nomination
8. The Invite - I mean I'm not sure about having 3 A24 films in but I don't know how to take this out if I think it's getting 3 acting noms and is safe in Screenplay
9. Obsession - Everytime I say something positive about this movie on reddit I get flamed and it's kinda annoying honestly. But I'll explain and please keep an open mind. It's one of the biggest box office successes of the year, Highest grossing original film since COVID, Critics loved it and Navarrette is gonna be at the top of critic circles as well. It's screenplay could also get in a pretty open field. But the main thing is that Focus usually gets a film in and this is it's biggest contender. So yeah I'm keeping it in but I can concede it's not safe
10. Artificial - Full honesty I'm not too sure about this but it's probably the most topical movie of the year, Garfield is fantastic in it and is my personal choice for Supporting Actor and I think he has a real shot, And looking at what it could get I don't think it's impossible. And Neon made it clear they're giving it a campaign so.

That's my current Best Picture 10. Let me know your thoughts

In the debates we have been having on whether or not YCSE is getting into BP or Best Documentary, a lot of the focus has been on Nathan Fielder and how he is perceived. But I think that because Fielder is in front of the camera, we're underestimating that Lance Oppenheim has received nominations before at film festivals like the Venice Film Festival (just this year!), Sundance, Independent Spirit, etc. He has a Critic's Choice nomination and even if Nathan Fielder is a newcomer to the documentary film branch, Oppenheim is a known documentary director. Also, Oppenheim directed Primetime this year. While I am not personally predicting Primetime to be as big Oscar contender, as much as I would like to see Robert Pattinson get in, I think that the Academy might want to reward his work. I have not seen his other documentaries, but between Primetime and haven seen Nathan Fielder's The Curse, I suspect that the film making style of YCSE owes a lot to Oppenheim and the documentary branch might want to recognize that.

Also, as for Amanda Seyfried's potential nomination, let's not forget this person is a past Oscar nominee for Mank and was in the conversation for The Testament of Ann Lee just this past year.

I have conflicting thoughts on this because you could make a case that the academy appreciates enthusiastic campaigning (Jamie Lee Curtis) but seemingly they also like to reward people who don’t care to do it (Sean Penn, Frances McDormand), so do you think that doing “too much”, too many interviews, appearances, starting too early etc. can actually hurt someone’s chances to win/ get nominated rather than the opposite? Any examples of people whose campaigning you believe put the voters off?

Having seen LBN recently I admired it a lot but unfortunately like how I felt with The Odyssey, I didn't have a strong emotional reaction to it. I was more in awe of its overall production and kept thinking how beautiful it's cinematography was. It's beautiful yes, but I wasn't really involved with its characters or its central theme of the movie. It felt more like a war film than a rumination on what it means to be gay. It's a stunning directorial piece of work but it's screenplay is lacking.

For Oscars I have it easily getting double nominations but I think it'll only win one: Best International Feature. I don't really think it's competitive to win Picture but it could. It reminds me of a classic Miramax movie from the 90s. An English Patient of our times if you will.

Weirdly I can see it being the Roma of this year, an acclaimed International Film distributed by Netflix that gets double digit noms and wins three Oscars (Director, Cinematography, and International Film). But that's honestly on its best day. Right now I have it only winning International Feature.

The nominations I have it getting are:

1. Picture
2. Director
3. Supporting Actor
4. Supporting Actress
5. Adapted Screenplay
6. International Feature
7. Casting
8. Cinematography
9. Production Design
10. Costume Design
11. Original Score
12. Original Song
13. Film Editing
14. Sound

And I supporting actress is in flux at the moment, I could see a world where they just name check Glenn Close ala Judi Dench for Belfast. Yes Close is essentially an extended cameo, but she's very good, speaks a different language, and is funny/moving in it and sometimes the Academy gets lazy and just votes for actors in movies they've seen. I'm looking at you Sam Rockwell (Vice), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Dench (Belfast), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Hong Chau (The Whale) etc.

Festivals came and went, we are deep in the fall season, and many movies that were highly predicted fell off the cliff or underperformed (eg. buzz is with one actor or actress rather than the picture as a whole). What's driving the buzz now is the trio of movies with unorthodox narratives. In no particular order:

Can YCSE become the first documentary nominated in Picture (Director, Supporting Actress)?

Can LBN become the second foreign language movie to win Picture after Parasite?

Can Nolan become the first director in 22 years to win Picture and Director again (which would be his back to back wins though not in consecutive years)?

YCSE

At this moment, all the attention is on A24's YCSE. The movie was flying under the radar until its surprise festival screening that blew away critics and festival audience. A24 forged the iron while it was hot and released it this weekend in 855 theaters. The result is magnificent. The movie is projected to make between 13-15M which is a blockbuster number for such a limited theater count. By comparison, The Drama, that is considered a proof of Zendaya and Pattinson star power, opened with 14M in 3K theaters. Add to it that YCSE is a 3 hours long movie, so its turnover isn't as quick as one for a movie under 2 hr, and you can see why this result is historic.

What does this boxoffice number show? For one, that the movie has reached mainstream rather than having been driven only by Nathan Fielder's hive. Gen Z showed up in droves amounting to over 60% share. The movie attracted couples - while skewing male (56%), many were accompanied by a female (44%). It's getting an expansion to over 1K theaters next week so it will be interesting to see whether it will have a run akin to that other Gen Z-driven sensation, Obsession.

I want to stress out that I'm not mentioning Gen Z solely because that audience is less represented with AMPAS than Gen X, boomers and older Millennials. The movie got 99 on MC which isn't populated by Gen Z critics. My point is that there's definitely appeal across demos.

Now that we got all the pros out of the way, lets look at the cons. The movie is vying for the historical milestone - first documentary to be nominated for Best Picture. This is very media headlines-friendly but it may be a bit too much for the industry. Also, accent on nomination rather than win is not as exciting. If your movie isn't win competitive than it's vulnerable to snubs. And A24 is already juggling two other movies deemed more AMPAS friendly, The Debut (with a sure-fire Actress winner) and The Invite (with its own historical narrative for Olivia Wilde as a potential first woman nominated in Director and Actress).

Now, due to incredible raves, arguably impossible to surpass this year, and boxoffice explosion, pundits are starting to gravitate toward the winner narrative. So lets look into that. First, a movie needs more #1 and #2 ballot choices to win Picture. Will more traditional members and foreign members, who may not know about the Holmes scandal, care when there are options they have a habit to vote for? Two, actor-driven movies (ensemble rather than 1 or 2 actor shows) win Picture. Will actors embrace the movie that has very little acting and a lot of natural situations (even if likely scripted)? Three, most usual winner path is Script + Acting or one of them replaced by Director and Editing. While documentaries were nominated in Editing before, they weren't in other categories and there's a question of acting eligibility due to a hybrid role (large chunk is actress as herself so not similar to Bakalova who played a character in Borat 2). Four, as some posters here pointed out, Parasite made history after many foreign language movies got nominated in Picture. YCSE win would be without such nominations paving the way and getting the voters comfortable/used to the idea first.

LBN

Widely viewed by pundits as the only movie capable of taking out The Odyssey, LBN has some big shoes to fill - it would be the second foreign language movie to win Best Picture so that's its big narrative. The movie broke out as a big Cannes surprise stealing the thunder from the expected contenders. Netflix bought it and promised an unprecedented (for the streamer) 47 day theatrical run. Festivals were a triumph that culminated in PCA win at TIFF. It's brought the audience to tears and as an ensemble movie it should play well with actors even if some resist watching a subtitled movie.

That said, cracks are showing which isn't unusual, for all contenders go through Hype, Slump or Backlash and, if real deal, Rebound . Critical reception started to slip once non-festival critics chimed in. MC rating that was 85 after Cannes, and up to 87 during the fall festivals, dropped to 83. RT is 87%. Those are still high scores but seriously lag behind Parasite's 97, The Odyssey's 88 and new talk of the town YCSE's 99. Moreover, LBN has opened in 4-5 theaters this weekend and while per theater average should be impressive, YCSE boxoffice spectacle and reviews are stealing the spotlight. Which isn't how Netflix expected it to go when it scheduled LBN release and YCSE wasn't on a horizon. Finally, like any Picture contender, its path is most #1 and #2 on the ballot or Script + Acting (or one substitute with Director and Editing). unlike Parasite that was challenging a one man show (1917), LBN is challenging an ensemble movie.

The Odyssey

The movie is ending its theatrical run and should close the books around 1.8B give or take. It's holding the record as the highest grossing R rated film of all times and the biggest IMAX release ever. While preparing to renew interest on streaming, it's in a quiet (Slump) phase of its awards cycle when spotlight is on new releases. Still, Universal is campaigning to the crafts so while headlines are with YCSE (now) and LBN (before YCSE breakout) , a lot is going on behind the scenes. With 88 MC, the movie is on par with Oppenheimer (90) thus being one of rare follow-ups to the win worthy of the second win.

That said, The Odyssey would need to bring back a lot of old habits. It's been 26 years since a swords and sandals movie won Picture. It's been 23 years since the last movie grossing over 1B won Picture. It's been 22 years since the last director won his second double crown (Picture and Director). Oscars moved away from awarding spectacle and boxoffice film-making to awarding smaller scale film-making. Between now and then, two directors won their second directing Oscar but missed in Picture. So it's an uphill battle in many ways though the movie has a lot of advantages. It's most likely to amount the biggest voting coalition among domestic and foreign voters (minus Spain that's supporting LBN and Japan that never clicked with Nolan) which is a lot of #1 and #2 on the ballot. It's playing well across demos and generations. It's likely getting nominated in most relevant ATL and SAG ensemble so it could look at the path such as Director+Acting+Editing.

Now that you have all the stats, your turn Oscarrace. Will the winner come from one of these 3 unorthodox narratives? and if yes, which one and why?

I saw Whalefall in 4DX yesterday, and I genuinely think it deserves Oscar nominations for Best Visual Effects and Best Sound.

The sperm whale itself looked incredibly realistic, and the whale stomach was just as impressive.

The director said they used practical effects for the inside of the whale, and it really shows — it looked disturbingly real.

The sound design was another huge highlight. The whale’s calls sounded almost like thunder, and the sheer force of the sound literally shook the theater.

It was one of those movies where the VFX, practical effects, and sound all worked together to make the experience feel incredibly immersive.

Since this is the category I feel like I'm the most confident in my knowledge and with the first returns for Wildwood, I wanted to write up what I think the race looks like for what seems to be a pretty competitive year for noms.

Wildwood : this has been considered as the front-runner for all of 2026 even without any reviews, and for many reasons : potentially one of the most ambitious animated films ever made (probably the most ambitious of the century so far), Laika biggest movie so far and with quite an overdue narrative behind it since they never won. Now that the reviews dropped and showed excellent returns above what many had hoped, I don't see how any other film could win this category this year. As far as the race for the win goes, I think it's pretty much over, congratulations Laika for your first Oscar lol. As far as other nominations for the film goes, I won't go too much in details but Visual Effects is absolutely on the table (I have it in no.5), and Song could happen as well. Anything else is too much of a long shot (Picture, Screenplay) or has too much competition (Production Design)

Toy Story 5 : Many are going to say that this a lock, considering the history of this franchise, and to be fair, there is no reason to doubt this would miss. However, I'm on the opinion that Pixar is only going to have one film this year, and while I think this will be the one, it's not 100% safe either. The film had good but not great reviews (I think it's the worst reviewed TS film so far if I remember?) and it seems to already lose some steam, but the subject matter of electronics/screen toys that will resonate with older people, its good box-office and the potential Song nom is probably going to make it safe for a nom. I just don't think it has any prospect of winning and even saying it's no.2 is debatable

Ray Gunn : I was doubting about this one all year, considering this has been in the works for so long, which usually is far from a good sign and could have led to a very messy film. However, first reviews have dropped and while it seems like it's good but not great, it's positive enough to guarantee a nom. Netflix has yet to miss a nomination in this category since 2021 and I don't know why this year would be the one where they miss, especially since the industry loves Brad Bird and will rally behind his passion project. Not beating Wildwood obviously but it's pretty safe for now

Hoppers : idk guys I just don't see it. In a year with so many contenders, I don't see Pixar getting two nominations. I think the current voting body of this branch has moved over giving automatic noms to Pixar. However, it would be really silly of me to not see this has many strengths. Not only is this a Pixar original, which so far has always been nominated, it's the best reviewed one since a long time (although that's not saying much lol), and has seen a lot of passion during the first months after its release. But at least to me, it has released way to early to keep that passion going for all the year, with so many other animated films already released and on the way as well. The fact that this is also pretty much a full comedy, closer to a Dreamworks film than your usual Pixar drama, doesn't up its chances a lot. For now I have it missing, but I wouldn't be surprised if it manages to get in if it gets all the precursors, so a solid 50/50

Forgotten Island : this is another one where I'm really on the fence, truly a 50/50. It has strengths, such as its vibrant colors and art style and impressive animation that voters will certainly appreciate, and apparently has a pretty strong emotional core. Dreamworks will obviously campaign for it a good bit, and the Puss in Boots 2 director being behind it is also going to help I think. But I also think it's far from being safe either : while the reviews have been pretty positive, I've seen a bit of negative attention, saying the film is overwhelmingly fast and on the more childish side. This wouldn't be too much of an issue if it wasn't for its biggest problem so far : it seems to be struggling pretty bad at the box office, some would even say it's flopping, and that's really not a good look for Dreamworks which doesn't have a perfect track record for noms. I still have it in my predictions over Hopper but I can see one replacing the other easily.

Iron Boy : Now this is one where I'm super shocked why people aren't predicting more, especially when people predict Tangles over it. I will address Tangles later, but I think this is a much, much stronger pick for the inevitable indie choice for the line-up. It was selected Un Certain Regard at Cannes, got quite a bit of buzz there and managed to win multiple prizes at Annecy, which includes the Jury Prize (for the record, this is the exact same history Flow had in 2024), and Annecy winners seems to have a good track record in nominations those last two years. In addition, it will probably be the only solid contender with 2d animation, which people will rally behind, and has a notable watercolor art style as well. And it seems this is going to have some success with European audiences/voters, and it's a pretty accessible/familial film that also tackles some societal issues. I honestly struggle to see why this would miss unless it doesn't get a proper campaign/doesn't get enough passion

Tangles : this is the indie film people seems to be rallying behind at this state of the year and I can see why : it has excellent reviews, seems to be an emotional adult film that will resonate with many people due to its subject matter. And I would love if this would get a nom ! But sadly I don't think it's happening. First of all, it got picked up by a distributor pretty late, which isn't in its favors, and it hasn't been talked about a lot in current discussions. But IMO the biggest problem here is that it's a R Rated animated film in black-and-white with a main queer romance, and even if the category has evolved a looot since last years, this is still a really high bar to push. People will bring up Memoir of a Snail but that one had the chance to be from a household director and previous winner, as well as having an Annecy Crystal. The only way I could see this being nominated is if both Hoppers and Forgotten Island miss, as I don't think this is replacing Iron Boy place as the indie pick. Overall, it will do very well and get a lot of passion from critics and cinephiles (similarly to Little Amelie last year), and might get a Globes nom, but I think this is the ceiling sadly.

Shaun the Sheep : During a moment I thought this could be a very solid contender, considering the love story between the Academy and Aardmann (a solid chunk of their feature lengths were nominated, and even won once) and the almost-guaranteed nom in BAFTAS, it could sneak in easily. But I don't think this is as strong of an IP as Wallace and Gromit is, and the last film of that franchise only got in because it was a terribly weak year. Not completely writing this off yet, I can totally see a path but for now I'm not super confident.

Hexed : yeah no. With two Pixars competing for having a nom Disney is not going to campaign very hard for this, and it seems to be quite the average Disney film we have been used to those last few years. IMO this isn't in the conversation unless it's surprisingly better than what it seems, which is probably not happening LMAO

In Waves : another one that I think is pretty much dead in the waters (pun not intended). The reception has been too muted/passionless for it to have any motion, especially with two other, much stronger indie picks on the way. And besides, if Netflix couldn't even get Lost in Starlight in the awfully weak year that was 2025, they're certainly not getting this this year lol.

Coyote VS ACME : now this is the wildest of the wild cards, as its chances are entirely dependent on whether it's eligible or not. I've heard many people say it's not eligible, other saying that it actually is ? IDK maybe I haven't followed up enough. Personally I think this doesn't have enough animation to be considered eligible, but if it somewhat does, then I think it actually has a shot for a nom, with how much passion it has and an extremely obvious underdog narrative behind it. We'll see !

And I think that's all, any other contenders I could have missed are simply not even in the conversation for me, so unless you think I really missed something, let me know!

I generally wouldn’t say I’m someone who is over-indexing on YCSE (I don’t think it’s coming anywhere close to a Best Picture win, though I do have it getting nominated). Still, I’m surprised I almost never see anyone predicting it for Original Screenplay.

I personally think screenplay is actually a likelier bet the Supporting Actress. The writers’ branch is more adventurous than the actors’, and if I’m not mistaken, the film is eligible—a documentary was nominated in writing at the Oscars before, though that was back in the ‘40s. More recently, Bowling for Columbine not only was nominated but WON for original screenplay at WGA in 2003, beating Far From Heaven and Gangs of New York, so it’s not like writers are unwilling to recognize a doc over fiction films.

Is there a reason I’m not seeing for why so many people are ruling it out?

I love this series because it's always fun seeing actors you would never expect to be in the same room together talk about their roles from the year. Definitely one of my favorite aspects of the acting campaigns. Since we're kind of starting to get a feel for who some of the major campaigners will be, let me ask, what are your predictions or dream pairings for upcoming season? Here are a few of mine:

-Andrew Garfield (Artificial) and Jeremy Strong (The Social Reckoning): both played controversial tech moguls in supporting roles

-Renate Reinsve (Fjord) and Inde Navarrette (Obsession): The scream queens of this year's horror smash hits. Even if only one would be campaigning for their respective hit I still think it could be a neat pairing

-Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary) and Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!): I don't really have a specific reason for this one, I just think these two could have some fun interactions

-Robert Pattinson (Primetime) and Anne Hathaway (The Odyssey): these two were quite literally everywhere this year, it just makes sense. Primetime seems to be Robert Pattinson's awards push but it could be fun to see them talk about doing The Odyssey

-Alternatively, Robert Pattinson (Primetime) and [Redacted] from You Can See Everything could be fascinating because they both worked with the same director and it could lead to some interesting discussions, but I also can see this not happening because it's a huge spoiler and the team wants to keep it a secret for as long as possible.

-And for one bonus Directors on Directors pick, Olivia Wilde (The Invite) and Jesse Eisenberg (The Debut), since they're both actors turned directors working with A24!

No documentary has ever even been nominated for Best Picture, and I think YCSE breaks that streak in January. Winning is a different story.

The way I see it, a few things have to break right:

• It needs crossover nominations, especially Director or Editing, which docs basically never get
• The Odyssey has to stumble or split the blockbuster vote with Dune: Part Three
• The preferential ballot has to reward a consensus pick (99 on Metacritic is about as consensus as it gets)
• It has to survive the “is this even a documentary?” debate over the restaged scenes

Curious where people here land. Is the hybrid format a liability with voters, or is it actually its best argument, since voters might see it as a movie first?

I wrote a longer, spoiler-free piece on it here if anyone’s interested: https://silverscreenriot.com/you-can-see-everything-best-picture-oscar/

Obviously it's still early in the year and a lot of things can change but right now I feel these 12 all have a legitimate shot of getting a BP nom and I'm so torn on which 2 films I should take out. The race feels so close I can make an argument for pretty much half of these films for missing. Curious what everyone else is thinking.

Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary You Can See Everything arrives in theaters this weekend accompanied by a shroud of mystique as well as glowing reviews. My colleague Alison Willmore called YCSE “the movie of the year.” Rolling Stone’s David Fear pronounced it “simply, unabashedly, unashamedly brilliant.” The New Yorker’s Richard Brody said it’s “strangely, poetically, poignantly beautiful … a movie of dazzling conundrums and vertiginous paradoxes.”

You might think that, given these effusive reactions, You Can See Everything would thus be a natural contender for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar. But that would be overlooking one key factor: To get there, YCSE would first have to be nominated by the roughly 700 members of the Academy’s documentary branch. That’s a taller order than it sounds, because the doc branch is not like other branches. No other branch takes such delight in going its own way, regularly giving a cold shoulder to titles the rest of the industry adores. No other branch’s members prioritize their role as combatants in an ideological battle — in this case, over what a documentary should be. 

https://www.vulture.com/article/you-can-see-everything-oscar-best-pic-nom.html