The Iranian navy says that an oil tanker has caught fire and became immobilised in the Gulf of Oman.

The navy said that other countries “should coordinate with the [Iranian] armed forces to ensure safe passage,” according to a statement reported by state broadcaster IRIB on Saturday.

“We maintain full control and intelligence oversight over the area east of the Strait of Hormuz, the Arabian Sea, and the Gulf of Oman,” the statement added.

Earlier, the navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps reported two supertankers had been hit by naval mines on Saturday. In addition, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported two strikes on tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Friday.

Source: Al-Jazeera (15:05 GMT)

UKMTO has reported Iran has hit 29 Oil tankers and ships in just 2 weeks, which is already bad enough

but UKMTO only reports on attacks that Captains voluntarily report themselves. Voluntary reporting

but UKMTO just released a report saying that a MAJORITY of captains refuse to report on Iranian attacks in Hormuz due to external pressure to keep things quiet and calm markets.

as such, if "majority" is taken literally, >50% at the very least that would mean 60 tanker attacks at least.

UKMTO struggling to accurately report true number of attacks with majority of vessels attacked refusing to report to UKMTO. • UKMTO is aware via other sources of incidents but constrained on reporting through lack of verification. • 12 attacks reported this week: 10 in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 in the Arabian Gulf and 1 in the Gulf of Oman.

Bloomberg AI:

• A Russian industrial facility in the Surgut district was hit in a drone attack, causing a fire.

• Emergency services are on site, with specialists assessing the scale and nature of the damage caused, according to regional governor Ruslan Kukharuk.

• The attack comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered strikes on Russian oil refineries to resume in a confrontation with Donald Trump over US intelligence assistance.

• Design capacity: 12 million metric tons/year of oil/gas condensate mixture.

• Recent throughput: roughly 10.5–11.2 million tons in peak recent years.

• It produces gasoline (AI-92/AI-95), diesel, jet fuel, LPG, and stabilized condensate

• Ukrainian drone strikes have driven Russian refinery runs to multi-decade lows. June 2026 throughput hit ~3.8 million barrels per day (lowest in over 20 years, ~35% below year-ago levels). Later figures showed runs around 3.6 mbd at points, with attacked/offline capacity repeatedly in the 4-5+ mbd range. 

Bottom line on this specific hit: A successful strike on the Surgut ZSK would disrupt a major regional fuel and condensate processing hub in the country’s biggest oil province and demonstrate that no part of the Western Siberian energy complex is truly out of reach.

It adds significant pressure to show Ukraine’s capabilities to effectively hit Russian pipelines and refineries that were originally deemed out of a conflict zone, “safe distance” and “out of reach.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-16/drones-hit-russian-industrial-site-deep-in-western-siberia

​

UKMTO: UKMTO has received a report of an incident 78NM northeast of Al Jubayl, Saudi Arabia.

The Master of a tanker has reported being attacked by an RPG from a small boat, resulting in damage to the aft port quarter.

Crew are accounted for and reported safe. A complete damage assessment and environmental impact are unknown at time of report.

Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO, whilst authorities investigate.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centrer has reported Iran has hit 29 Oil tankers and ships in just 2 weeks, which is already bad enough but UKMTO only reports on attacks that Captains voluntarily report themselves.

A lot of ship captains refuse to report on Iranian attacks in Hormuz due to external pressure to keep things quiet and try to keep markets from spiking. Crude is now over $110 a barrel - a brutally high price - and it looks like it will continue to climb.

This Administration jumped into a war, lost it in record time, and has no exit plan. It has been an Epic Failure.

Big increase in Arabian sea/Hormuz traffic. Malacca/Singapore down.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

none popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships: QUANTUM HARMONY,STAMOS,ATAHUALPA,KASTOS I,SALSA,ZERVOS

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships:ASIAN PROGRESS VII,SYDNEY SPIRIT,DESH BHAKT,NEW TRIUMPH,MINERVA ALKISTIS,PASSIONATE WARRIOR,NAVE SYNERGY

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Energy (XLE) is the top-performing sector in the S&P 500 (^GSPC) so far this year.

William Blair energy research analyst, Neal Dingmann, sits down with Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Brooke DiPalma to explain what's driving the energy sector's surge this year and to share his outlook for oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices...

*more in the article

Hello

What do I need to know if i buy a 2 year out PUT option on USO and aiming for something like a -30% drop. At some point I guess oil market should normalize. I could provide numerous arguments, TACO, demand destruction, perhaps a broader sell-off, recession fears, re-routing infrastructure etc. In the short term I expect CL futures still going up.

I understand that crude oil futures are in backwardation now so that helps giving USO some umph to the upside. I don't get why USO had much higher historical prices such as in 2008 with a share price of $950. while CL was $140 or so. So is a potential PUT on Jun 16 ' 28 expiration aiming for a -20% -30% drop plausible or am I missing crucial information?

Thanks

Oct 16 (Reuters) - ExxonMobil (XOM.N), opens new tab signaled on Friday that higher refining margins during the third ​quarter could boost its downstream profit by $4.5 billion compared ‌with the previous three months.

Refining margins have soared due to the ongoing Iran war, which has restricted energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz, ​as well as Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. The resulting ​higher fuel prices have created political risks for the ⁠administration of US President Donald Trump ahead of the ​midterm elections in November.

We’re seeing news every few days that a pipeline blows up, an oil reserve is low, or a shipping route is closed. I understand that the overall volume of oil and fuel used worldwide is huge, and one refinery doesn’t immediately have a huge impact.

Does anyone have a source or graphic that shows the volume of oil at each phase in the process over the past two years or so? I’m under the impression that there is oil production/pumping, origin storage, shipping, refinery storage and refining. I’d like to see 2 years of data plotting the Volume for each of those steps for the last 2 years or so.

Iran has managed to export some liquefied petroleum gas and jet fuel since July, despite a US naval blockade, shipping intelligence showed and people involved in security said.

Tehran has in recent weeks been concealing such cargoes among a growing volume of ship-to-ship transfers by other Gulf producers off Oman, four people in maritime security who track Gulf oil movements told Reuters.

The Iranian exports and methodology are ‌reported for the first time here. While a fraction of its former energy exports, the cargoes are rare evidence of petroleum products getting through a blockade that has halted Iran's crude exports.

Analysis by US advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), which monitors Iran-related tanker traffic using ship and satellite tracking, shows at least eight gas tankers carrying Iranian LPG have left the Gulf of Oman since mid-July.

Another tanker carrying Iranian jet fuel reached Myanmar in September, additional satellite imagery and analysis by maritime intelligence group SynMax show.

The US imposed targeted sanctions in 2023 on Myanmar's jet-fuel industry, citing military airstrikes on civilians that the United Nations says have killed thousands of people. Myanmar's military government has repeatedly denied targeting civilians, saying its operations are directed against armed groups.

Six of the eight gas tankers and the jet fuel tanker are under US sanctions for ⁠transporting Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products, a Reuters analysis of the vessels and sanctions imposed on ships by the US Treasury showed.

"What we have seen passing is a handful of tankers carrying Iranian LPG, but the overwhelming majority of tankers laden with Iranian products have been redirected by US forces," said Jemima Shelley, senior research analyst with UANI.

Shelley said some Iranian LPG tankers transferred cargoes near the Omani coastal towns of Shinas and Sohar, while others waited in the Gulf of Oman before heading past the US blockade, which US Central Command has said sits across the Gulf of Oman near the Iran-Pakistan border.

The total amount of these LPG cargoes was estimated at 4.1 million barrels, Shelley said.

Shelley said the shipments were driven "more by opportunism" than showing a new trend of Iran trying to export its oil and petrochemicals by using smaller ships.

Most of the cargoes sailed to Malaysia's Eastern Outer Port Limits to conduct further STS transfers for likely destinations in China, Shelley said, based on UANI's analysis.

The Iranian government did not respond to a request for comment. Myanmar's military-backed government did not respond to a request for comment on whether the country had received Iranian jet fuel.

The US military's Centcom said its naval blockade, which was first imposed on Iran-related oil exports on April 13, is "ironclad". The blockade was lifted in June ‌after the ⁠US reached a draft understanding with Iran, but it was reimposed on July 14 following the collapse of the agreement.

A US military official told Reuters that the passage of a vessel does not necessarily mean it had evaded the blockade. Every ship was assessed individually, including through a review of its papers, and some vessels could be allowed through for humanitarian reasons, the official added.

The official said the appearance of a vessel on US sanctions lists is not the only factor to make it subject to the blockade, adding that US forces are also closely monitoring some ships without taking action against them for operational reasons.

Centcom said in an update on October 13 that during the three months of the latest blockade, four commercial vessels ⁠had been disabled and 135 ships had been turned around by US forces.

The US military has turned around ships from Asia and also seized some tankers, previous Centcom statements said.

Washington has coupled its blockade with a sanctions campaign aimed at severing Iran's remaining financial links and depriving it of revenue. Last week, it imposed fresh sanctions on 17 vessels involved in transporting Iranian crude, petrochemicals and petroleum products.

A US Treasury spokesperson questioned shipping data suggesting vessels had evaded the blockade, saying ships could spoof their ⁠locations or use false identities when loading.

Such data "should be taken with a grain of salt", the spokesperson said.

The Treasury spokesperson said Operation Economic Outcast, together with the blockade, was "suffocating the Iranian regime".

Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, said although there was no sign of Washington easing its blockade, worsening economic conditions in Iran could push Tehran to take greater risks.

"If Iran can move product tankers through, even in small ⁠numbers, jet fuel may be a good option. Iran's aviation industry is under increasing pressure from US sanctions, with a growing number of planes grounded, and a potential surplus of jet fuel at Iranian refineries," Soltvedt added.

Iranian crude exports fell to zero in September, according to Kpler, the first month without a shipment since the analytics firm began tracking the producer in 2013.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the blockade prevented most Chinese purchases of Iranian oil and left Iran unable to deliver crude to customers.