Sarasota-Naples: 2,394 (+44.04%)
New York-Spokane: 813 (-43.85%)

Over performing by 5+ pts:
Sarasota (1,662)

Under performing by 5+ pts:
New York (1,448)

Congratulations to FC Naples for winning the unofficial Gulf Coast Cup! With 7 points across four matches, FC Naples edged out Corpus Christi FC (4 points) and Sarasota Paradise (3 points) to claim the imaginary prize. Maybe one day it will be real and sanctioned.

* Trophy image created by ChatGPT and USL1 name is used for entertainment purposes only

INSANE ENDING.

SARASOTA SCORING IN THE 1ST MINUTE OF ADDED TIME AND DRAGGING NAPLES DOWN WITH THEM TO THE ELIMINATION CLUB AND GIVING CHATTANOOGA AND FORT WAYNE PLAYOFF BERTHS.

THEN WALKER'S FOUL AND RED CARD GAVE NAPLES THE GAME WINNING FREE KICK FOR UDERITZ TO SCORE AND WIN THE GAME 3-2 IN SARASOTA AND IT WILL BE NAPLES, FORT WAYNE & CHATTANOOGA TO BATTLE IT OUT IN THE FINAL WEEKEND.

ABSOLUTE MADNESS.

(Also i already drew this shocked Palm Tree when I drew Westchester & Corpus in the Elimination Club some time ago but quickly removed it as Wikipedia said Sarasota were eliminated when they weren't but now they are officially.)

It all comes down to this.

These are the playoff implications with each outcomes if I recall correctly.

Sarasota Wins, Sarasota remain alive in the Playoff Hunt, Naples are Eliminated, Chattanooga Clinches.

Naples Wins, Naples remain alive in the Playoff Hunt, Sarasota are Eliminated, Decision Day will come down to Chattanooga, Fort Wayne & Naples. (Chattanooga won't clinch right away via Goal Difference)

Both Teams Draw, Both Sarasota & Naples are Eliminated, Chattanooga & Fort Wayne Both Clinch.

No Matter The Outcome, Someone's season will come to an end.

Who is winning tonight?

(Also Naples Mascot is supposed to be a Shell if you're curious)

2026 USL League One Season Stats

Criteria: Minimum 500 minutes played and at least one recorded goal or assist.

Dot colors represent teams, and larger dots indicate more big chances created.

I excluded players without a recorded goal or assist to reduce crowding along the left edge and make the graph easier to read.

Among those excluded despite meeting the 500-minute minimum, Charlie Adams had the highest chance-creation rate at 2.20 chances per 90 minutes. Alfredo Ortiz created the most total chances, with 24.

Quite a few of the USL1 clubs also own or control their own Soccer Specific Stadiums like Centreville Bank Stadium. Could any of them also attract a UFL franchise? Why not AC Boise or Portland Hearts of Pine (when they build their own stadium away from Fitzwater)? Or Fort Wayne?

Hello everyone,

I've been using this statistical model for the Championship for some time now and wanted to expand to League One.

Here's a guide to how the model works. League One uses the latest version, which I also plan to use for my Championship rankings in 2027. The Championship rankings currently use an earlier, less robust version, which I will continue using through the end of the 2026 season.

The model evaluates team strength using performances across the games played, with those ratings also informing predictions for future matches. Results matter, but teams can collect points at a different rate than their underlying performances might suggest. Finishing, goalkeeping, and the timing of goals can all contribute to those differences.

Ratings from the same model version can provide context across seasons, but they shouldn't be treated as directly comparable between leagues.

The League One model has been backtested using historical data from 2019–2026. That testing reconstructs team performance from historical scores and expected goals; it does not fully reproduce every feature of the current model. These initial rankings are provisional.

Ratings below reflect recorded results through October 17, 2026.

I'm sure this won't cause any fights.

Performance Rankings

Season Commentary

Boise leads a closely matched top three at 63.44, ahead of Forward Madison at 62.19 and Union Omaha at 61.76. Boise has conceded a league-low 35.58 expected goals across 31 matches.

Madison's season-long performance holds up despite a difficult recent stretch. Madison has 55 points and a +24 goal difference, supported by an underlying xG difference of +18.34. However, the team has collected just four points from its last five matches.

Omaha combines a strong statistical profile with strong results. Omaha sits second in the points table with 61 and third in these rankings. Its +20.27 xG difference is the best in the league, and it has collected 12 points from its last five matches.

Charlotte is the biggest talking point near the top. The Independence leads the points table with 66 points and has scored a league-high 73 goals, but ranks fifth here. Its +31 actual goal difference is substantially larger than its +8.94 xG difference. Charlotte has scored about seven goals above its xG and conceded about 15 fewer than its xGA. The model gives a more cautious assessment of its underlying performances.

Almost nothing separates Sarasota, Chattanooga, and Naples. Their ratings span just 0.06 points: Sarasota at 48.26, Chattanooga at 48.21, and Naples at 48.20. The order should be read as a near tie. Naples has the strongest recent results of the three, with 13 points from its last five matches.

Greenville ranks 12th despite sitting 15th on points. Its actual goal difference is −24, compared with an xG difference of just −1.41. The Cosmos sits last on points but 13th in the model, with an actual goal difference of −26 against an xG difference of −4.31. Both have much less severe underlying deficits than their scorelines suggest.

Richmond currently ranks last in the model. The Kickers' −23.93 xG difference is the weakest in the league, and their 64 goals conceded closely track their 60.75 xGA.

As of Monday, October 19th based on 59k simulations of remaining game results. The home field push for playoffs will be fought till the last minutes on Saturday, exciting stuff! A couple teams peaking in from outside the playoff picture as well look to push for their spot in the knockouts.

• 1st and 2nd Place: Secured by Charlotte Independence and Union Omaha respectively
• 3rd Place: Toss up between Forward Madison (48%), AC Boise (16%), and Spokane Velocity (36%)
• 4th Place: Same 3 teams; Forward Madison (36%), AC Boise (38%), and Spokane Velocity (26%)
• 5th Place: Between 4 teams; Forward Madison, AC Boise, One Knoxville, and Spokane Velocity
• 6th Place: One Knoxville or Spokane Velocity
• 7th Place: Chattanooga Red Wolves or Fort Wayne
• 8th Place: Chattanooga Red Wolves, Fort Wayne, FC Naples, or Sarasota Paradise

The picture becomes much clearer after Wednesday's decisive matches between Sarasota vs Naples, and Cosmos vs Spokane. Sarasota vs Naples may as well be a playoff game because that result knocks one of them out I believe, and Cosmos vs Spokane dictates Spokane's home field position come quarterfinals.

Friendly may have lost in this duel.

But the war is not over.

Their state rivals approaches Wednesday Night.

Can Sarasota beat and eliminate Naples from the Playoff Hunt?

Will Naples end the Sarasota Cinderella Run and get them eliminated instead?

Or Could Both be eliminated with a draw?

Let me know in the comments.

(I spent way too much time on this comic)

(And if you're wondering yes I did re-upload this one because the previous version i forgot to put Friendly's soccer patterns on his arms and I'm the type of guy that can't live without fixing mistakes so you're welcome!)

Does anyone know what the generic schedule will look like for the first round of the playoffs? In years past they have been able to avoid Halloween. This year Halloween falls on a Saturday. Will they split it into 2 matches on Friday and 2 on Saturday day? I can't imagine the league and teams wanting to interfere with families and trick-or-treating.