So I’ve been doing tons of research the past few days to figure out what exactly is going on in the AI trade. There are many factors at play but I think the BIGGEST is a report from Gartner that says based on their research that the AI revenue pie will not be big enough for all the AI players of today to survive by 2030. What this means is that since last week investors have been scrutinizing the AI companies with the weakest balance sheets, weakest business models and punishing them the most. Also, since AI revenues will come in light this means AI CapEx estimates for 2028 and beyond will have to be slashed significantly. This hurt semis and hardware stocks. Now some of yall might be wondering, “Who is Gartner and why should I care?” Gartner has a long successful track record as an IT research firm and their research has generally been directionally correct while sometimes even understating things. So basically, whatever Gartner says in their AI report is likely to actually end up slightly worse because that’s their track record. What this means is that AI revenues will come in even lighter than Gartners estimates.

Now Gartners report hinges on ONE THING: REAL INTEREST RATES. Basically real interest rates is all that matters. If real interest rates are below 1% AI CapEx is spent at maximum amount no matter what AI revenues are because money is cheap resulting in AI stocks RIPPING HIGHER. Is real interest rates are at 1.5% or higher? Then Gartners report comes into play and becomes reality resulting in multiple compression in AI stocks.

What is my base case? Real interest rates must stay low for one reason: the US government debt. The US government simply can’t afford high rates without it causing a debt spiral. For this reason real rates will stay low and AI stocks soar.

Diplomatic progress in The Middle East ! LOL ! Can someone show or tell me what that looks like , because I don't think anyone would recognize it if it actually happens.

WTI was about $111 this morning and now $103 , so got a nice reversal in indexes , but how in the world can $103 oil is great news and how can everyone think the consumer can keep going and going and going , sooner or later they will break and bring the rest down with them !

Developments in the Middle East remain in focus, with attacks on commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz escalating in recent weeks. At least 18 vessels have come under fire over the past two weeks, according to ship tracker Kpler.

18 in a week ? Reports yesterday claim up to 30% of US Naval assets are involved in the gulf area. Anyone able to describe an endgame to this ?

At a $5B market cap and roughly $3B in reported cash and marketable securities, you're looking at around $2B for the rest of the business.

Back in October 2025, when the stock hit $171.56, the market cap was around $25.3B, with less than $1B in cash. Subtract the cash and you get roughly $24.4B.

So the market value beyond cash has gone from $24.4B to about $2.1B in less than a year. That's a 91% decline.

And that's before considering the possibility that the latest $1B ATM adds more cash to the balance sheet. The full amount hasn't necessarily been raised, but if it were, the market would be valuing everything beyond cash at roughly $1B before accounting for subsequent spending.

Obviously, cash isn't free money for shareholders. Oklo has reactors to build, projects to finance and plenty of execution risk. But it's pretty remarkable how much the market's valuation of the business has changed.

The average analyst price target is still around $70, although targets have been coming down.

Has the market become so focused on the risks of commercializing nuclear that it’s overlooking the potential of what Oklo is building? With the market value beyond cash down 91% in less than a year, it feels like the pendulum may have swung a little too far toward pessimism.

The nuclear energy sector has seen 30-40% decrease in value in the past year. Some equities even more. Most research says the underlying companies within the ETF like: Constallation, BWXT, Nuscale, etc all increased in price too much too fast.
However, I continue to see news about SMR locations under contract to break ground. I also keep seeing titans of industry and talking heads discuss the growing energy demand that isn’t going to disappear. Nuclear seems like it has to be an option because solar only works when the sun is out, wind also doesn’t work 100% of the time, coal is dirty and natural gas is finite. Thats an oversimplified take on the other energy sources but Nuclear energy still looks like the future to me.
Thoughts?

The past few weeks have given markets plenty of reasons to sell off, yet SPY is still trading just 2% below its all-time high. One interesting development I wanted to highlight is what happened during Friday's OPEX, particularly in the VIX, where we saw a rather outsized move relative to the SPX.

Much of this came down to market maker positioning and what appears to have been a negative gamma feedback loop - as the VIX moved higher, the delta of call positions that had been building since last month increased, forcing market makers who were short those calls to buy more VIX futures to hedge their exposure, further amplifying the move. For context, the VIX typically moves around five times as much as the SPX in percentage terms, yet on Friday that ratio reached roughly 20x.

We can see a significant compression across the VIX term structure at the front end which supports that the spike was s driven by short-term hedging mechanics and is supportive for equities

The next two weeks will be very important as earnings season picks up. and while only about 14% of S&P 500 companies are reporting this week, we have both META and TSLA on Wednesday. The focus will likely be on META and what management has to say about AI spending and monetisation, while TSLA will be interesting given the growing speculation around a potential merger with SpaceX.

Speaking of SpaceX, the company confirmed its earnings for today after the market close, which is rather unusual given the relatively short notice.

Whether the timing is an attempt to stabilise sentiment around the AI trade is anyone's guess, but it certainly makes today's report one to watch

Below is what the options market is currently pricing for the earnings moves compared with the historical median moves over the past eight quarters. Do note that for SPCX, we're using the August 4 report, as that is the only post-IPO earnings reaction we have.

Turning to positioning, there isn't much support coming from CTAs at current levels. Systematic flows are likely to remain skewed towards selling, with the next meaningful positioning threshold sitting roughly 3% below the market, around SPY $740. In other words, we shouldn't expect CTAs to provide much of a cushion if we see further weakness in the near term.

The positive here is that corporate buybacks are starting to pick up again as we're looking at a record year for buybacks, and with companies gradually exiting their blackout periods, these flows should become an important source of support as we move into November.

Another thing worth noting is the massive deleveraging we saw across hedge funds last week. Whether someone got caught on the wrong side of the trade and triggered broader risk reductions is difficult to say, and I won't speculate on who, but the dynamics resemble some of the forced unwinds we've seen further amplified by market maker hedging.

Hedge fund net leverage has fallen to 43.7%, whichs the largest weekly decline since Liberation Day in April 2025 and the fourth-largest weekly decline over the past five years.

This is important because while forced deleveraging puts pressure on equities in the short term, it also creates room for positioning to rebuild. This means that high-beta names could reverse quite quickly if earnings come in better than expected and funds start putting risk back on. That doesn't mean the selling is necessarily over, but the positioning is becoming less crowded.

I also wanted to share an interesting finding from Bank of America's latest fund manager survey - investors indicated that a 10-year Treasury yield of roughly 5.9 -6% would be enough to trigger a more meaningful rotation out of equities and into bonds. Given where yields are currently trading, there is still some room before funds switch from sector rotation to equity risk-off

While we're on bonds, besides earnings, keep an eye on Wednesday's $13 billion 20-year Treasury auction as thiswill be a test of demand given the ongoing concerns around fiscal deficits and the amount of debt the Treasury needs to finance. As you can see from the chart, the 20-year yield is trading around 5.5%, even slightly above the 30-year, suggesting investors are demanding a premium to hold this part of the curve. The positive here is that duration has recovered from the early October selloff, bond volatility has started to ease, and trading conditions have become more orderly. So this is certainly more favourable than it was a couple of weeks ago, although the structural concerns haven't gone anywhere. What I'll be watching is whether the auction attracts solid demand without a meaningful tail, as a weak result could quickly put pressure back on long-end yields and, by extension, equities.

Finally, with reports of another potential escalation in the Middle East, I wanted to comment on oil markets. Traders are increasingly treating the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz as a more persistent problem rather than a temporary geopolitical shock. Brent futures for December 2027 are still trading close to $90 per barrel, so the risk premium remains priced into the market well beyond the immediate conflict while the equity market is holding up

Coming back to SPY, now that OPEX has passed, the index has stabilised around the $760–765 area, with Friday's session testing the lower end of that range, broadly in line with what we expected. The question now is whether improving earnings and the return of buyback flows will be enough to offset the remaining systematic selling pressure. With positioning having been reduced so aggressively, the setup for a recovery is certainly there, but we still need earnings to deliver.

For now, trading is likely to remain choppy with the options market pricing in a move of about 13 points which brings the lower end near the $750-55 level. Vol regime is negative so moves are going to be sharp while bellow $775. Immediate resistance is $770 while support is at $760. Volumes are neutral

In terms of volume, QQQ is starting to catch a bid, although options positioning remains heavily skewed towards puts. The nearest support sits around $710, where market maker hedging could provide some buying support. Worth noting that the options market is pricing in a move of roughly 13–14 points, which would bring us closer to the $700 level on the downside. I expect that to be a much stronger support area, esp given the positioning around it.

SOXX continues to chop around the $500 level, although we're starting to see volumes pick up around $480 and $470. This suggests we could see another leg lower towards those levels before the market finds support and resumes higher.

TL;DR: Markets remain resilient despite the recent volatility, with SPY just 2% below ATH. Friday's VIX spike appears largely driven by market maker hedging rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment.; aggressive hedge fund deleveraging has reduced crowded positioning, creating room for a recovery if earnings deliver. CTA flows remain a headwind, but returning corporate buybacks should provide support into November. META, TSLA and SPCX earnings, alongside Wednesday's 20-year Treasury auction, will be catalysts. For now, expect choppy trading, with SPY support at $760, resistance at $770 and sharper moves likely below $775. The setup for a recovery is improving, but earnings need to confirm it.

Centrus Energy disclosed on 19 October 2026 in an 8-K that on 16 October it signed and closed the purchase of 100% of Westerman Holdings, LLC from the Westerman Employee Stock Ownership Trust for approximately $116 million. Roughly $95 million was cash and about $21 million was Centrus Class A stock. Westerman, founded in 1909, employs about 400 people across four facilities in Ohio, Oklahoma and Wyoming and was already supplying Centrus with centrifuge casings and other major centrifuge components. It also makes nuclear-grade products such as uranium hexafluoride cylinders plus upstream and midstream oil and gas equipment. The company is now a wholly owned subsidiary that keeps its name. Centrus says the deal supports its previously announced multi-billion-dollar expansion of uranium enrichment capacity, should lower project costs through an integrated supply chain, and is expected to be accretive to adjusted earnings per share in the first year.

Source:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1065059/0001628280-26-066212-index.htm

What I think this implies:

Centrus Energy (LEU) now owns the shop that fabricates the casings and major components for the centrifuges it needs to add enrichment capacity. That input was previously coming from an independent, employee-owned third party, so the build rate for the expansion is no longer limited by whatever share of capacity that outside supplier chose to allocate.

Anyone else that would have needed the same qualified nuclear-grade fabrication or uranium hexafluoride cylinders from those four plants loses access to that capacity, which is now directed at Centrus's own multi-billion-dollar enrichment build.

The next quarterly report is the first place to look for confirmation, since it must include Westerman in the accounts and would show any update to the stated cost or schedule of the enrichment expansion. Later reports would show whether Westerman-built components are actually feeding the build rate.

If later filings show the enrichment expansion schedule unchanged or slipping even with the fabricator in-house, or if the plants stay mostly committed to the oil and gas and industrial work the release describes, then this is mainly an earnings-accretive industrial purchase rather than relief of a capacity bottleneck for the enrichment project.

check out the charts for sugar, wheat, cocoa, and beans

forecasts say 2027 is going to be brutal weather-wise, logistics through the panama canal are constrained, and supply deficits are starting to pile up. chasing chocolate stocks right now is a trap, way too late.

how are you guys playing the supply side squeeze? looking at fertilizer, equipment makers, or ignoring agricultural markets entirely? what's on your watchlist?

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Obviously, you have the morons screaming bubble regardless of what's happening in the market. People called it a bubble when MU was $200 a share, AMD was 150, and NVIDIA was $85. When I look at the market, I see healthy PE's, healthy EPS, healthy supply chain, etc. When a company reports even semi cautious guidance, it is MURDERED. I have a hard time pointing at the market and saying "bubble" just because it has grown.

I see a compressed spring of a stock market, one that has endured brent skyrocketing, treasuries climbing, inflation fears, high yields, etc.

If this market were able to just go to work, we could see some HUGE gains. MU being back around the mid 800s and AMD around mid 500's seems like a great opportunity for those of us that missed out on a lot of gains due to fear mongering. I, personally, don't see any MACRO indicators justifying a big correction or dip. Wall street could decide to "re price" stocks jus to ensure that us commonfolk don't get too wealthy lol.

What's your take? What's going on?

Forget about Coreweave. Forget about the neoclouds. Those are very small players in the big AI picture. They only capture the margins of the AI buildout, an insignificant portion that WILL NOT determine the course of the AI trade. This ship is being sailed by the HYPERSCALERS and one of them reports this week: META.

What the market will be looking is mainly two things: proof of ROI on AI CapEx along with revenue growth directly attributable to AI and any updates for 2027 AI CapEx spend. If both of these come in better than expected then AI stocks stabilize and wait for the remaining hyperscalers to report. Remember, if META raises AI CapEx for 2027 it means the other hyperscalers most likely will too because of the “prisoners dilemma”.

What LENDERS want to see more than anything right now is that AI is generating revenues but firms like Goldman have put out numbers that they say the hyperscalers need to hit in order to show AI CAPEX is at least breaking even. Goldman says $300B in total AI revenue for 2027 is what is needed for all hyperscalers (META, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL) to hit to break even on an expected 2027 AI CAPEX of $1.2T.

Remember, Coreweave and neoclouds are not a big enough part of the AI pie to cause a crash. The hyperscalers are investment grade and largely funding their AI CapEx with cash flows still. They are not dependent on junk private credit like the “neoclouds” are. This continues as long as revenues from AI hit certain levels.

My prediction: if META blows away expectations on revenues attributed to AI then all of these fears dissipate and AI stocks soar.

Borr Drilling insider Tor Olav Trøim purchased 750,000 shares of $BORR on October 14, representing an estimated transaction value of $3,542,550.

That puts the estimated purchase price at approximately $4.72 per share.

What’s particularly interesting is the broader insider trading activity. Over the past six months, insiders have made 23 open-market trades in $BORR. Of those transactions, 17 were purchases and just 6 were sales, meaning insider buying has outpaced selling by nearly a 3-to-1 ratio.

Insider purchases don’t guarantee future stock performance, but they can offer investors another data point when evaluating a company’s stock and how its leadership views the opportunity.

Insiders are required to report certain transactions to the SEC, and the IHFG insider tracker flags these filings as they become available.

Source: Insomniachedge.com

In the US we currently have a highly deregulatory government in terms of passing actually deregulatory law, ignoring the enforcement of existing regulations (see lack of EPA enforcement of data center power generation), and open unwillingness to consider new regulations on data centers and AI. Clearly, AI hyperscalers benefit enormously from these policies.

Now, I do personally have strong opinions on these issues, but my question is not “regulation/AI/data centers good/bad?” Instead, I’m curious about to what degree big money/institutional investment in data centers and AI stocks is driven by the deregulatory environment. Additionally, do you think those investors will have a “the party is over” moment if the democrates take the house and senate next month?

The US government just paid more in interest on its debt than in any fiscal year on record, and the 10-year Treasury yield has quietly flipped: 5% spent three years as a ceiling it kept bouncing off, and now it is acting as a floor.

Every dollar of new borrowing costs more than the last, and higher yields mean the next round of refinancing is more expensive still. That cycle feeds itself without the Fed doing anything. Revenue has to stretch further just to cover interest, leaving less room to absorb any slowdown in tax receipts.

Holders of long-dated Treasuries face the worst math here as yields stay elevated quarter after quarter. Do you see the 10-year settling back below 5% by year-end, or holding above it through 2026?

MS is one of Nscale's two largest customers, recently terminated its agreement for the data center in Loughton, Essex, Telegraph reports

report said Nscale had faced repeated delays with the project. National power grid officials had told Nscale they did not expect a power supply for the data center until the 2030s.

Nscale filed for an initial public offering in the ⁠US last month, with Microsoft and Anthropic expected to be its major customers

its S-1 for a U.S. IPO seeking a target valuation of up to $35 billion (with initial guidance ranging between $30B – $35B).

I have a feeling MS is just using this power delay as an excuse to cut its AI spend. MS' free cash flow is reaching negative from its massive ai spend, and OpenAI simply doesn't generate enough net income to cover the rent.

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

​

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

• How old are you? What country do you live in?
• Are you employed/making income? How much?
• What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
• What is your time horizon? Do you need this money next month? Next 20yrs?
• What is your risk tolerance? (Do you mind risking it at blackjack or do you need to know its 100% safe?)
• What are you current holdings? (Do you already have exposure to specific funds and sectors? Any other assets?)
• Any big debts (include interest rate) or expenses?
• And any other relevant financial information will be useful to give you a proper answer. .

Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!

Q3 2026 Key Numbers:

Net sales: €11.66B, up from €9.33B in Q2 and €7.52B a year ago (about +55% YoY, +25% QoQ)

Net system sales: €8.4B

Installed Base Management: €3.3B, above guidance on strong productivity upgrade demand

Gross margin: 57.5%, above the 55-57% guidance range and up from 54.0% in Q2

Operating margin: 44.4%

Net income: €4.96B vs €2.13B a year ago, and €2.92B in Q2

EPS: €12.95 vs €5.49 a year ago

Systems sold: 121 (113 new, 8 used) vs 91 in Q2

Guidance

Q4 net sales: €14.2-15.2B, which is 22-30% above Q3

Q4 gross margin: around 57%

FY2026 net sales: €44-45B (about 36% growth over 2025), with a gross margin around 56%

Capital return

Bought back about 2.8M shares for around €4.1B in Q3

Interim dividend of €1.88 per share, payable Nov 4

Takeaways

AI-driven chip demand is pulling forward fab spending. Customers expect supply to stay tight through at least 2028, according to management.

ASML is weighing capacity increases beyond its planned 2027-28 expansion, on top of the 30% lift already planned for low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity in 2027.

Margins were helped by favorable mix and upgrade revenue. Q4 margin guidance is slightly below Q3's 57.5% even with much higher sales.

The Q3 net income figure includes equity investment gains, so it overstates operating performance. Gross and operating margin are the cleaner read.

Non-current contract liabilities jumped from €3.57B to €9.30B, which signals strong customer prepayments and order visibility.

Revenue was slightly below the €11.85B LSEG estimate, and the initial stock reaction was muted, so a lot of good news may already be priced in.