GTA home still in bubble territory… a long recovery awaits

Despite the price correction, **Toronto prices are still 60% above the 1989 bubble relative to income.** At its worst point in 1989, the average home cost 6.5× income. Today it costs 10.4×, and the peak was 13.5×.

1989 and today are different kinds of problem
- In 1989 the price-to-income ratio was modest. What made homes unaffordable was 12–13% mortgage rates. When rates fell, affordability came back without a large price fall: −27% nominal was enough.
- Today the payment is just as stretched as 1990 (64% of income against 66%), but at half the interest rate. Rates can't fall from 6% the way they fell from 13%, so the adjustment has to come from prices falling or incomes rising.

All the tailwinds that led to unprecedented price appreciation have now become headwinds:
1. Financing costs - zero rate era is over
2. Immigration - trending lower
3. Temporary residents - free fall
4. Population declines - GTA witnessing nearly 0 net population growth 2025-2030
5. Unemployment rate - still around 6.5%

In the 90’s the shift from rate reductions from the teens into mid single digits was the repricing catalyst.

Brace yourself for a prolonged slide down and trough

Just saw this listing in White Rock, BC. They originally listed for just under $2.5 M in May 2024. After 13 price reductions, they recently relisted for just under $1.5M. I still think it is grossly overpriced, what were they thinking at $2.5M?

https://housesigma.com/bc/white-rock-real-estate/1154-finlay-street/home/NAKv53DLZdk3MnxB?id_listing=GMnKYqxomZR3w1Qr&utm_campaign=listing&utm_source=user-share&utm_medium=desktop&ign=

Real estate gurus are finally being exposed in Quebec, and it's looking bad for them. Hopefully, the rest of Canada is next. They have completely ruined the meaning of "home" just to sell their version of "financial freedom."

In Ontario

Hello all,

This is not a business promotion..

This year, I have launched a digital first Realestate Brokerage and a Rental Platform.

$949 for sale by owner or 1% commission cost to sell.

Buyers get up to 50% cashback or our commission.

Making it more data driven as consumers are aware of numbers.

On the rental platform, it's a end to end platform where landlords can list, lease, and screen tenants.

Screening will be added before December.

Tenants can create one profile and have an option to revoke access to landlords who are not moving forward.

Tenants and landlords can do digital lease signing, online rental payments, maintenance requests, and more for proper tracing and records purposes.

In works to build a new home marketplace for consumers as well.

So overall-

A rental platform - across canada

A brokerage for buy and sell - to be scaled across canada.

A new home marketplace - to be scaled across canada.

A property management company

I can share the website links over DM. I'm not promoting my products. Hence, I didn't post here

I'm very passionate about what i do and want to provide better product experience and savings to consumers.

The plan is to scale as a corporate entity by centralizing ops and hiring salaried agents where needed, getting a strong foot hold in 1 city, rinse and repeating the same across cities and provinces. Be present across canada by 2030.

And capture at least 2% of sales across each Realestate board, north of 1500 + transactions / year for buy/sell.

I'm looking for

1) Investors who want to be part of our ecosystem and get shares into all.

2) Account executives

3) Cofounder - Sales & Growth

4) Property Managers.

If this is something of your interest and if Realestate excites you, I'd love to connect.

Comment or DM. And I can share more info.

\\#startupcalgary

It’s been six months since the HST rebate on new Ontario homes came into effect and results point to an uneven recovery for the Toronto-area market.

While sales of new single-family homes have climbed above historical averages, condo sales are mired at record lows, raising questions about whether the temporary tax relief can deliver.

Experts are divided on whether the yearlong federal and provincial government rebate program, introduced in April, should be extended and whether it can address the deeper affordability and supply problems in the market.

Read the full story with this gift link.