Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s documentary You Can See Everything arrives in theaters this weekend accompanied by a shroud of mystique as well as glowing reviews. My colleague Alison Willmore called YCSE “the movie of the year.” Rolling Stone’s David Fear pronounced it “simply, unabashedly, unashamedly brilliant.” The New Yorker’s Richard Brody said it’s “strangely, poetically, poignantly beautiful … a movie of dazzling conundrums and vertiginous paradoxes.”

You might think that, given these effusive reactions, You Can See Everything would thus be a natural contender for the Best Documentary Feature Oscar. But that would be overlooking one key factor: To get there, YCSE would first have to be nominated by the roughly 700 members of the Academy’s documentary branch. That’s a taller order than it sounds, because the doc branch is not like other branches. No other branch takes such delight in going its own way, regularly giving a cold shoulder to titles the rest of the industry adores. No other branch’s members prioritize their role as combatants in an ideological battle — in this case, over what a documentary should be. 

https://www.vulture.com/article/you-can-see-everything-oscar-best-pic-nom.html

I'm compiling some of the key quotes across Empire's coverage of the film:

https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/dune-part-three-very-different-movie-world-has-changed-exclusive/

In Dune: Part Three – the final part of Denis Villeneuve’s trilogy – the weight of Paul’s transformation will come to bear. Everything has changed.

“The idea was to try to make a movie that will have the same DNA — it’s a Dune movie — but it’s a very different movie,” Villeneuve tells Empire in our world-exclusive Dune: Part Three issue. “It has a different pacing.” It’s not just Paul that’s different – set 17 years after Part Two, he has spent the intervening time exerting his terrifying power as Emperor, re-shaping the galaxy. “We are back with the same characters, but this time the world has totally changed,” says Villeneuve. “Their psyches, their perspective on reality has totally changed, and Paul is living with the burden of what he created, trying to find a way out of this spiral of violence.”

For Chalamet, it offered a chance to evolve Paul Atreides in all-new ways, continuing his descent into darkness. “That phrase ‘anti-hero’ gets thrown around a little too loosely perhaps, but it’s fantastic to chew on as an actor, where it’s not purely redemptive,” he tells Empire. Part Three, he notes, is “its own beast. It’s its own story, its own siege, its own hail of paranoid isolation.”

It was always going to end here for Villeneuve, adapting Frank Herbert’s sequel novel Dune: Messiah for Part Three. Having been firmly in the world of Spice, space and sandworms for three back-to-back movies, it was the right time for the filmmaker to bring the story home. “I said, ‘Maybe it’s a good idea to go back to this project, not out of nostalgia, not because I miss it, but the opposite — I’m tired of it,’” he says. “I want to make sure that I will be severe with the material. That I will not be complacent.” Next up? 007 awaits… “I thought, ‘When it’s done, I need a very powerful rocket to pull me away from Arrakis.’ When I was asked to do the next Bond, I said: ‘Okay, this is what I need.’” Mission: accomplished.

https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/dune-part-three-zendaya-chani-deep-pain-exclusive/

Going in to Dune: Part Three, Chani is still reeling with the fallout of Paul’s decision to marry Princess Irulan and ascend the throne, having toppled Emperor Shaddam IV. “I think there is a deep pain, a deep mistrust, a deep betrayal,” Zendaya tells Empire of Chani’s headspace this time around. “In the previous film, she opened herself up to the idea of letting someone in, allowing a space for love or gentleness. Well, we see how that goes. That part of her life is not as present anymore.” In Paul’s possession, Chani’s blue scarf becomes a symbol of their lost love. “Think about things that are just items until someone you know or loved has touched [them],” she says of its totemic value. “Then there’s distance, or there’s loss, and that item is now something much more.”

For Villeneuve, Part Three – among everything else – is effectively a divorce movie, with galactic consequences. “It’s a movie that is talking about something that is very human, which is the idea of a separation, the idea of a divorce,” he explains. “With me, it happened. The idea about the broken family is something that the book gave me the opportunity to explore.” Zendaya concurs: “He brought it up many times,” she says. “He’s like, ‘Oh… been here.’” Expect a final chapter that holds a Gom Jabbar to your heart.

https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/robert-pattinson-dune-part-three-look-like-an-alien-exclusive/

Pattinson arrives in Dune: Part Three as assassin Scytale, a shape-shifting ‘Face Dancer’ from the genetic-meddling Bene Tleilax people. Sounds perfect for some Pattinson weirdness, right? “I went into it being like, ‘I want to look like an alien,’” the actor tells Empire, “and initially Denis was saying, ‘Well, I think he’s got to fit in with everybody. I think he just looks like you. He’s normal.’” It was not quite what Pattinson hoped for. “I was a little bit disappointed,” he acknowledges.

But, before the shoot came around, Villeneuve settled on something much more up Pattinson’s alley. What if Scytale had an eerie blankness, with bleached hair and no eyebrows? “It wasn’t even that far before I started shooting; he sent me an email saying, ‘I’ve had this idea of a look,’” recalls Pattinson. “And I’m like, ‘Okay! This is very much not like a normal guy at all.’” The result is the perfect mix of Pattinson’s sensibilities, and Villeneuve’s approach to Frank Herbert’s source material. “It’s like he’s grown in a lab,” Pattinson says of the character. “There’s a little element of a baby about him, which I really, really liked.” Bring on the madness.

Obviously it's still early in the year and a lot of things can change but right now I feel these 12 all have a legitimate shot of getting a BP nom and I'm so torn on which 2 films I should take out. The race feels so close I can make an argument for pretty much half of these films for missing. Curious what everyone else is thinking.

Here are my updated Acting predictions post NYFF:

BEST ACTOR:

1. Andrew Scott, Elsinore
2. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Tom Cruise, Digger
5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Dark Horse: Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

Commentary: I'm pretty confident in these five. I have a feeling SPC can sneak in Turturro as they have had success in the past and this is their main priority. While I have Pascal, Pattinson, Jackson getting in at Globes, I don't have them making in here.

BEST ACTRESS:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut
2. Inde Navarette, Obsession
3. Sandra Huller, Rose
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite

Dark Horse: Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

Commentary: This is sadly not that competitive a category with the only lock being Moore. I have Huller in for Rose over Fatherland and I do think Inde can make it in. I don't have Virginia Efira making it in, not sure 3 international performances will make it in and I'm not sold on AOAS being an Oscar contender across the board.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. Andrew Garfield, Artificial
2. Paul Giamatti, The Debut
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey
5. Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra

Dark Horse: Edward Norton, The Invite

Commentary: Despite a deep bunch, I'm pretty confident in these five. I could possibly see a world where Buscemi, Pattinson, Pearce slip in. Other contenders include any of the Digger cast members (Ahmed, Goodman, Plemons). Domingo is popular but Michael would have to be a nominated in other categories for him to slip in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
2. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
3. Penelope Cruz, La Bola Negra
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore
5. Amanda Seyfried, You Can See Everything

Dark Horse: Penelope Cruz, The Invite

Commentary: This is such a bizarre category where the only lock is Hathaway and even then her performance isn't didn't wow me. Morton and Cruz are both showy in one scene performances, Colman could just be a tag along with Scott similar to Hong Chau with Fraser for the Whale. Amanda Seyfried Is a scene stealer in YCSEessentially playing multiple characters.

The full score is out now! (Except for Soldadito Español by Judeline which will be released later on). Includes the 2 Penelope Cruz musical numbers.

Not mentioning who or what, but I came out of the film most impressed by the big twist and should be a LOCK for a nom imo if not even a possible front runner to win.

What do others think?

I wanted to make a post about my thoughts on the category as I did a couple months ago where a lot has changed since then. It's rare we get a year where there's so many films that feel in contention with a strong case by October and instead of trying to find contenders, it feels I have to make reasons for movies that would normally get in to miss just to end up only 5 films. While it will leave many deserving films snubbed, it will be more interesting to see more variety in precursers than the last 2 years having an obvious 5 that all made Golden Globe, Critic Choice and while some independent films missed PGA, it was easy to see through that with most predicting the right line up. I doubt this will be as easy, I made a post last week about all the precursers and their trends nominating certain studios but that relied on heavily comparing them to the final 5 nominations which we don't know now. I just list my order of most likely analysing each one with my top 5 being what I'm currently predicting.

Wildwood will probably be an easy winner in a year less easy for nominations. Yes, it isn't looking to do well at the box office which is a big con against another movie but it could do slightly better than expected and it seems more understood that a PG13 stop motion movie from a studio that often bombs won't do well. I just think the movie will have a lot of passion judging by the amount of 5 star ratings on Letterboxd and stand out in a year where I don't see the other films as winners. It also has the narrative supporting it as Laika's time to finally win and this big scale film that took forever to hand craft as something people will want to reward, even if it was up against a stronger independent film it still might just win for those reasons. I think the bigger question is if it will get other nominations like Visual Effects, Sound and Song and even as a long shot in categories like Score and Production Design. Maybe it ends up like Pinocchio which hard swept Animated Feature but blanked elsewhere at the Oscars, but having these other branches supporting it will probably also help it's chances.

Toy Story 5 is the other big film, I've seen some float it missing but I don't see it. It made over a billion and is just a very likeable entry in a very successful franchise with decent critic reviews. I already made a case why I don't think it will win as Toy Story 4 only barely won with just Critics Choice and PGA in the era where the mindset was to just give it to Disney and that was being treated as the finale for Toy Story in a way the 5th isn't. While it's debatable which of 4 or 5 isn't prefered, what I guess is Toy Story 4 has far more haters but more die-hard fans (me included) which is shown from a higher Metacritic if lower Letterboxd average, and Toy Story 4 had a lot of critic wins which I don't think 5 will. With that said, I do think it's getting in as will show up anywhere and there's a small chance it upsets PGA if Wildwood bombs hard but even then the sweep might feel so secure it might just win anyway.

Hoppers is a movie I won't call locked looking at all the options below and maybe something needs to go to fit the other films in, but I just don't buy it will happen. Pixar originals have only missed with the Good Dinosaur and the voting body seems to like them as a priority to watch and vote for, even more than Pixar sequels as what sometimes misses from them. Hoppers Letterboxd average is still at a 3.7 which is a lot better than all of Onward, Turning Red, Elemental and Elio being at a 3.3 and the 73 Metacritic score is a lot better than Onward and Elio in the 60s and Elemental at 58. Normally a liked Pixar movie with decent box office would be an instant lock and this being more stylistic and 'Pixar is back' feeling than most those other films that got in makes me think this will. I don't see the arguments against as 'the Academy is changed' only really refers to winners as there's always been 1 or 2 independent films nominated and we just recently had the Encanto year where 3/5 of the category was Disney. I've also heard it's faded but I don't know how to define that as more than a vibe or think of times when a film fading has actually impacted it asside from Dune 2 which could have also been because it's a sequel. This applies to Toy Story 5 aswell but I also don't know where it missing would show as they will likely make all precursers, BAFTA has only 4 slots but they nominate Pixar so much even for Monsters University and Finding Dory that I think they might do both Pixar films. While Pixar has only got 2 films in once, the other years they had 2 had The Good Dinosaur, Cars 3 and Lightyear as easy to ignore while these 2 seem split on what people like more although Toy Story 5 has an edge on more visibility. I don't think Disney getting 2 Pixar films is different to them getting a Pixar and a Walt Disney film in which they do a lot so I think Hoppers is easily the 3rd most safe.

Ray Gunn was a movie I've been doubting but I probably shouldn't have been for how much Netflix positioned it as their push this year. I actually got to watch this movie recently and it's a fun time that seems good enough to get nominated and have fans who love it. It's mainly Netflix not missing since they started campaigning animated films making me predict this but also it being Brad Bird's big passion project makes it feel more of an auter to recognize that I see working. It's possible the nightmare rotation of producers John Lasseter and David Ellison could be enough to gatekeep the movie or others will have more passion to kick it out, but I think it's a good bet to have in now.

Tangles is the one of the main two idependent films and think at least one will get in, it just depends which as I'm not sure one will rise above the other. This seemed like a lock at Cannes with the great reception and have famous people voicing and producing in the movie, but then no one picked it up for months. IFC got it and they got Memoir of a Snail so I think it still gets in, especially looking at that 4.2 Letterboxd average showing large passion for it as a big tearjerker tackling Alziemers. This could also be a way for the Invite heads to nominate Seth Rogen just not in Best Actor for some reason. I just don't think any will recapture Flow's strong appeal and narrative in order to be in win contention with the nomination being the win for either.

Iron Boy I had in for a while but now don't have it in my 5 as if I had to say, I think Tangles will be more the critics push that gets more nominations and has more passion. Iron Boy still has the strength as the only non English language film contending that some of the international block could rally behind. It also has Sony Pictures Classics who have a strong track record of getting a nomination that made no precursers, which could always happen at the last moment for this. Some argue they haven't got an animated film nominated since the Red Turtle but they haven't distrubuted many animated films in the past decade with the Peasants as their only major snub as A Magnificent Life and Scarlet didn't have the reactions to get nominated regardless of studio. Don't have much good reason to have this out other than I believe in the top 5 more and think SPC can get John Turtorro in for either film or the documentary Rehearsals of a Revolution as their other pushes.

Shaun the Sheep the Beast of Mossy Bottom is another I don't have a strong case to have out. It's another fun Shaun the Sheep movie that is certainly stronger than Early Man and Chicken Run 2 and is probably a favourite of parents who saw it. I just wonder if franchises having diminishing returns could apply here as it feels less new and smaller scale than the last two going to the big city or outer space. Toy Story 5 already feels like the IP film in the line up and Wildwood is filling the stop motion film making it harder to put in as a film that won't make PGA and probably not Globes given the previous film's nominations. Both previous films got in during weaker years and while I think it will make BAFTA Animated Film, I look at the Outstanding British Film category that feels more competitive this year and don't think it will get that. Can also argue the Sheep Detectives stole it's thunder of British family film about sheep, but these are all weak arguments for a movie that can easily show up for the nomination. I just find the precedent of how Shaun the Sheep movies get in has less evidence than for Pixar originals or Netflix's contender.

Forgotten Island is a mystery as Dreamworks is pretty consistant at getting a film in every other year and this one is well liked and being taken more seriously. Maybe it would feel like Megamind and Rise of the Guardians missing, but they got more mixed reviews and gained in appreciation over the years. The main issue is how much of a box office bomb it was, and it matters more than Wildwood for a major Universal release. Box office normally doesn't singlehandedly kill a film's chances, but it also felt this made it be underseen. Even asside from that, while the 3.9 Letterboxd is great it does feel it could have gone higher as the Letterboxd crowd feels like they should be the target audience when Puss in Boots the Last Wish and the Wild Robot peaked at 4.3. I wanted to watch the film myself before deciding and while I found it great, it didn't have as big as an emotional core as I expected. This just seems like it will be a struggle as less appealing to kids with this young adult story as shown by how well it did, while maybe being a bit too fast and full of crazy comedy for some older audiences. I do think it could ultimately show up as passion is there, but it feels hard to make an argument for this over Hoppers and Ray Gunn.

Coyote vs Acme is worth mentioning as I've heard mixed things on if it's eligible. Marcel the Shell made sense as the cameras were barely focused on the humans unlike this, and I think even if it qualifies many won't think of it as an animated film and won't nominate it. Still, it's very well liked and uses the Looney Tunes IP that might be nostalgic to all age ranges. It has a good narrative as an anti-Warner Brothers vote of being a tax write off that got saved, but Artificial kind of stole it's narrative. I'm also not sure Ketchup will be able to make a strong campaign so will keep this as a contender that I don't think will get in.

Julian is weirdly not happening despite Cartoon Saloon getting 4/5 of their films nominated, it has Zoe Saldana as a producer and the Letterboxd curve shows a lot of high ratings. It's just apparently more of kids film, might get dumb conservative backlash and doesn't have a distrubuter yet in October. Maybe it is the move to release it next year and hope there's less competition, as I really struggle to see a scenario it gets in this year.

Hexed is a movie that I wonder if we're dismissing too easily, but even as someone who liked Wish these trailers don't look good. It would need a lot to be stronger than either Pixar film and will probably just be left out. Maybe look out for a random Globe nomination as they went for Wish and Moana 2 but doubt it will end up a contender once premiered.

Minions and Monsters is worth mentioning as it will probably get PGA as they have nominated 9 Illumination films and the film is sort of Oscar bait as a homage to cinema history and is pretty well liked. It also underperformed for the franchise even if still made half a billion and I don't see any other precurser nominating it.

To quickly mention some other films, I briefly considered In Waves but after Ray Gunn's reactions I don't see Netflix pivoting to this. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could make PGA but is so poorly reviewed that it won't get in. Lucy Lost is well acclaimed but feels too below Tangles and Iron Boy as the indepdent contender, maybe it releases next year instead. The Violonist won a top Annecy prize but has no buzz outside that. Some were predicting GOAT earlier in the year and while decently liked, it wasn't enough to get more than the Annies. Steps, The Cat in the Hat and the Angry Birds Movie 3 also haven't premiered but what 1% chance we live in a universe where they get the Oscar nomination?

My predictions for each major precurser are

Critics Choice - Wildwood, Toy Story 5, Hoppers, Ray Gunn, Forgotten Island, Tangles

(Iron Boy, Shaun the Sheep the Beast of Mossy Bottom, Hexed, Coyote vs Acme, Julian, Minions and Monsters)

Golden Globes - Wildwood, Toy Story 5, Hoppers, Iron Boy, Tangles, Ray Gunn

(Hexed, Forgotten Island, Julian, Shaun the Sheep the Beast of Mossy Bottom, Coyote vs Acme, Minions and Monsters)

PGA - Wildwood, Toy Story 5, Hoppers, Minions and Monsters, Ray Gunn

(The Super Mario Bros Movie, Forgotten Island, Coyote vs Acme, Hexed, Iron Boy, Tangles, Shaun the Sheep the Beast of Mossy Bottom)

BAFTA - Wildwood, Shaun the Sheep the Beast of Mossy Bottom, Toy Story 5, Hoppers

(Ray Gunn, Tangles, Iron Boy, Forgotten Island, Minions and Monsters, Coyote vs Acme, Julian)

Call it an exaggeration, but these scores are Best Picture worthy. When OBAA’s scores released it felt like we had just crowned best picture right then and there. Obviously there will be competition, but a documentary winning best picture is an inspired win. I could also see voters wanting to see it happen since there’s never been a documentary best picture winner, let alone nominee.

Saw this at Telluride and I have been holding on to my opinions ever since.

What do people think YCSE Oscar prospects are?

My analysis since I saw it were quite straightforward:

This is by far the best A24 film of the year…they are going to fumble their campaign so bad.

Maybe I am pessimistic, but YCSE would need a tremendous FYC campaign to convince voters to nominate them for unconventional fields…and I just cannot see A24 doing that when they have The Debut and The Invite practically guaranteed.

There is a lot of passion for this film here. Many people want it to downright win BP. Moreover, people here are also very keen on Amanda Seyfried to be nominated for this role. But whether this passion will translate to anything tangible is another matter.

Seyfried is not playing Elizabeth Holmes for a good chunk of the film. I would even go as far as to say that her most interesting segments are those in which she is not. It has already been confirmed that she will not be eligible for SAG, which will be her biggest hindrance for a nomination.

My current prediction is that it will win Best Documentary Feature Film.

Whether it sneaks into BP, Cinematography or Editing are completely up to A24’s ability to convince AMPAS voters (which I am not necessarily trusting them on).

Supporting Actress will be the hardest nomination to squeeze out of this. I cannot see the SAG bloc being crazy about a performance that half the time is not being acted out at all.

EDIT: I have confirmed that Seyfried will not be eligible for other of the precursor awards (BAFTA, Golden Globes and SAG awards). I honestly just do not see the path for it to end up at the Oscars.

What do you guys think?

If she misses I’ll be staring at my phone like this ^

Her performance in ‘Primetime’ charismatic, hilarious, and is that type of experienced performer that can communicate an entire character with a single look. Her controlled delivery is a masterclass.

So I put together some of the films I've seen mentioned. I know its a bit ridiculous but I saw other people do and I wanted in on the fun.

1. I do think most of these films will come out next year. A few won't.
2. I,d say a good chunk of these films wont get nominated for best picture (Ally Spiderverse, The Bell Jar, De Novhe. Entertainment System is Down, Damien Chazelle's Prison Film)
3. I think there will be another Le Bola Negra out of nowhere surprise next year. A young european director gets his 2nd or 3rd film into the main competition at cannes and it wins something big there and the Neon or Netflix pick it up and it wins people's choice at TIFF in 2027 or some other major festival award. I think there is a real shot that happens next year just don't know how to find out what movie that could end up being although I would like to know if anyone is more plugged in to European independent cinema let me know.

Also I put a * next to every film I think is most likely to be nominated here.

Martin Scorsese: What Happens At Night*

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert: The Untitled Universal Event Film*

Damien Chazelle: Untitled Pridon Film Sean Baker: Ti Amo!*

Brady Corbet: The Origin of the World*

Bob Persichetti & Justin K. Thompson: Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse

Ally: Bong Joon Ho

Ruben Östlund: The Entertainment System Is Down

Greg Kwedar: Saturn Return*

Lenny Abrahamson: Hillside Drive

Sarah Polley: The Bell Jar Greta Gerwig: Narnia The Magicians Nephew*

Hirokazu Kore-eda: Untitled Searchlight Project with Eddie Redmayne

Todd Haynes: De Noche

Alexander Payne: Somewhere Out There

Lin Manuel Miranda: Octet

Tom Ford: Cry To Heaven.

EDIT: I wish I could edit the title, just ignore the typo.