• Iran’s last physical buffer of exportable crude outside the U.S. naval blockade. Their floating storage in Asian waters (primarily off Malaysia and Singapore, used for ship-to-ship transfers to Chinese buyers) has been fully exhausted as of mid-October 2026, according to Kpler data cited in the Wall Street Journal and related reporting.

• Pre-war, Iran was producing roughly 3.3–4.2 million barrels per day (crude + liquids), accounting for about 4–5% of global crude production, and exporting 1.5–2 million barrels per day (around 2.5% of global seaborne oil shipments), with 80–90% going to China (mainly independent “teapot” refiners at steep discounts).

• The blockade has prevented meaningful new crude loadings from exiting Iranian ports/terminals for months (near-zero successful exits since roughly July–September). With the offshore Asian stockpile gone (down from a ~90 million barrel peak after the brief mid-June lift, to under 1 million / ~866,000 barrels by early/mid-October), Iran cannot replenish what it sells.

• China, the dominant buyer, now has to source replacement medium/heavy sour barrels from higher-priced alternatives (Brazil, West Africa, other Middle East grades, etc.). This removes a source of discounted crude that had been supporting Chinese refining margins and creates incremental tightness in the global market, especially for those specific grades and refined products.

• The loss of this ongoing ~1.5–2 mbd flow (on top of earlier war-related disruptions) adds to the structural supply deficit. Brent has already been trading in the $108–112 range recently amid Hormuz risks, vessel attacks, and Houthi actions; further inability to operate the shadow fleet system supports a higher risk premium and potential for spikes if inventories continue drawing, demand rebounds, or other outages hit. U.S. Central Command has estimated the blockade has already denied Iran at least $25 billion in oil revenue.

• China’s premiums on crude purchasing are higher than expected this week, as Wall Street and markets have continued to attempt to accurately price in near-zero Iranian crude exports.

• Iran has spent more than a decade building a “resistance economy,” informal/illicit networks, non-oil activity, barter arrangements, and the ability to push costs onto the population via inflation and currency devaluation while protecting core security, IRGC, and patronage structures.

• Wartime conditions generate some “rally-around-the-flag effect,” and the leadership has repeatedly demonstrated willingness to tolerate high inflation and public hardship. Analysts (including Kpler’s own comments) and Iranian officials have framed the U.S. approach as a gamble that economic pressure will force a nuclear deal or uncontainable unrest; history suggests containment is more likely for at least the next one and possibly even two years.

• Alternative overland or small-scale routes exist but cannot replace seaborne volumes at scale. The central bank governor has publicly rejected collapse narratives, calling claims of immediate economic freefall an “illusion.”

It is implied Iran has operated under severe constraints for years; the current combination of repressed inflation pain and security-state prioritization is consistent with a prolonged stalemate rather than a near-term resolution.

My personal take is that this is not ending anytime soon, despite what many may hope to believe, no matter where you sit on either side of the aisle of these matters.

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-fleet-of-shadow-tankers-has-run-out-of-oil-after-monthslong-u-s-blockade-0822b050?st=xSekNN&reflink=article_copyURL_share

https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/iran-oil-reserves-run-dry-070000048.html

I’ve seen this where a new flare system was installed on an existing site getting new wells.

Thoughts?

As Venezuela struggles to recover from political upheaval and calamitous earthquakes, the U.S. government is exploiting the country for oil and money.

Key points from a recent interview with Heidmar's CEO:

INVENTORIES
- Early on, record-high stocks absorbed the loss of ~20M bpd
- Now stocks are at record lows. US crude is at levels last seen in 1980 [13:36–13:41]
- Crude is "only" ~$100–105. Aramco and Vitol say $200 if 13–14M bpd isn't coming out [13:56–14:09]

PRODUCTS ARE WORSE
- Middle East product exports (~4M bpd) stopped
- China halted exports for 4–5 months
- The US considered banning ~2M bpd diesel exports. Russian diesel exports stopped

ASIA'S DEPENDENCE
- Pre-war Gulf reliance: Japan 90%, Korea 70%, China 60–65%, India ~60%
- China imported ~12M bpd before the war vs under 7M last month, drawing down stocks
- China's demand is already falling ~0.5M bpd on EVs and LNG trucks

WHAT SHIPPING SAYS
- Freight is now 25–30% of delivered oil cost vs 3–5% before [15:02–15:11]
- 11 ships hit in 10 days, 24+ seafarers dead
- New supply is Atlantic: Guyana, Brazil, Argentina, US Gulf

HIS CAVEAT
- "The oil market is not sustainable where we are," and it's already feeding into inflation
- If the war ends, freight falls with oil. He doesn't see that in the next six months

Full interview: https://youtu.be/mGql__hlQT8?si=eQj2qBZVEGDwlH8r

Putin delaying shipping Trump's blood diesel. Putin never misses a chance to teach his dog who is really in control.

Arabian sea/Hormuz down. BAM up today and moving average recovering. Malacca is up but not due to persain gulf oil its all other sources and internal transfers. The persian gulf component keeps dropping. Chinese buying is rising again from the malacca traffic. Singapore moving average continues to drop.

Sea of Oman to Arabian Sea Implied Dark Traffic:

This is all the oil traffic out to the Arabian sea minus 2.5mb (pre war output of Fujairah and Oman) to estimate the additional output of dark traffic out of Hormuz as well as any additional output from the ADCOP pipeline. Usual traffic should be around 21mb of crude and oil products.

Adding this further crude vs product breakdown for Gulf of Oman to Arabaian Sea as well.

DHT JAGUAR added to the 20 Oct data as they popped up near west coast of india.

Listing the actual ships and their draft/dwt as well as helps check if I messed up with double counts/fills

Data from: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:63.3/centery:23.5/zoom:7

Bab al Mandab AIS on Traffic:

Oil products going out south from the Red Sea. Usual traffic is around 8mb. Edit: I dont think much is coming out any more from the East/West pipeline its very unclear what is output now. That still means the amount overall is down. The drop below is more from dropping Russian and other sources of usual oil going south out of the red sea as the Yanbu/East/West pipeline is all going north to suez.

Ships:LAZURIT,SEA HYMN,TIBURON,KUDURO,SC TAURUS,TPT MIND,VST LYRA,YANG LI HU

Data from https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:45.8/centery:12.7/zoom:8

Strait of Malacca:

Usual oil products throughput is 16.5 mb crude and 6mb oil products. Also added how much of that malacca traffic is going to China as well as how much oil is from the Persian gulf.

Ships: DELTA KANARIS,TITANIUM SHINE,SELETAR SPIRIT,SEAHORSE 1,XIN LIAN YANG,ALMI HORIZON,PM MONARCH,RAWAQ,HAFNIA EXPERIENCE,DORRA,DABA,SEAWAYS TYBEE,STENA SUEDE,ZAYNAH

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/straits/malacca?unit=million_bbl_per_day

Singapore Oil Departures:

Note based on 2024 the average daily output in tonnes was 211,000 tonnes per day. I think 2025/2026 is much higher but they don't yet have official data.

Data from https://tankermap.com/analytics/ports/singapore-oil?unit=million_bbl_per_day

A tanker loaded with Russian diesel will sail for the US on Thursday as Moscow starts to implement a fuel supply deal struck by Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

“The first tanker, as planned, will leave the port tomorrow,” Novak told reporters on Wednesday, according to Tass. “More batches will follow.”

Novak didn’t identify the Russian port, the supplier or the tanker, but said the vessel has a capacity of 40,000 metric tons, according to Tass. That’s equivalent to about 300,000 barrels.

In a phone call with Trump earlier this month, Putin agreed to relax diesel-export restrictions and send more fuel to the global market, including the US. The Russian government pledged to ship 500,000 tons of diesel in a first phase, but provided no exact timeframe.

Trump is keen to lower diesel prices that are trading north of $200 a barrel just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. But the pressure extends far beyond the US, spurring fears that energy inflation will force central bankers across the world to raise interest rates.

Analysts have said Trump’s deal with Putin is too limited to move prices meaningfully ahead of the US vote. The agreement has also faced opposition among US and European lawmakers, who warn it’ll bolster the Kremlin’s coffers for its war in Ukraine.

Novak said earlier this month that Russia aims to raise diesel exports gradually in November and December, with global deliveries reaching as much as 3.5 million tons a month by the end of the year.

Trump has argued the deal with Putin could pave the way for a peace agreement with Ukraine because it will keep talks going. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Bloomberg the US leader was trying to pressure Kyiv into surrendering to Moscow.

Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in St. Petersburg Wednesday to meet with Putin. Zelenskyy met Witkoff in Oslo on Tuesday.

Tehran hardened its terms for negotiations with Washington, demanding an end to all U.S. sanctions and threats while vowing that “not a single gram” of enriched uranium will leave the country.

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that Iran and Russia have never "worked as closely" together as they are now.

• Embattled French President Emmanuel Macron pinned some of the blame on the U.S. war in Iran for the widespread riots and looting unfolding across France.

• Qatar says peace talks between the U.S. and Iran are ongoing, but neither side has confirmed any negotiations.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Iran of attacking commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz— tactics he compared to Nazi U-boat operations during World War II.

• President Donald Trump warned President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of consequences if he refuses to negotiate an end to the war with Russia.

• President Donald Trump said that hatred between President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a major obstacle to ending the war in Ukraine.

• President Donald Trump slammed Iran today as peace talks remain unclear, accusing the regime of killing Americans with roadside bombs and hanging protesters from cranes.

• President Donald Trump said that strikes against Iran are not enough unless the United States can ensure the country will not develop a nuclear weapon in the years ahead.

• Deputy White House press secretary Anna Kelly said that the United States would not attack Iran ahead of the midterm elections.

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian demanded that the U.S. lift sanctions and end threats before negotiations can begin, blaming American "warmongering" for regional instability and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.reddit.com/r/SilverGoldOilShortage/s/U1SxnEn9N5

A major fire was reported today from Transneft’s Nikolskoye linear production and dispatch station after an overnight drone attack.

Russia Claims 136 Ukrainian Drones Downed, Hits on Druzhba Pipeline Facility

The governor confirmed a fire at an enterprise in the Michurinsky district with no casualties; OSINT/monitoring channels and independent Russian outlets identified it as the Druzhba-system node.

The station receives, stores, and pumps crude plus refined products (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, fuel oil) and has a reported capacity of up to 300,000 metric tons per day. The previous hits on the same or nearby Druzhba nodes (including August 2025) historically halted pumping.

• 300,000 tons/day node capacity is large relative to remaining flows. That figure is roughly ~2.2 million barrels per day equivalent if treated as pure crude (actual mix is crude + products). The station is a key intermediate pumping/storage point on the Russian section of Druzhba before the line reaches Unecha and then branches toward Belarus and Europe.

Even partial damage to pumps, pressure systems, or tank farms can force flow reductions or temporary stops upstream and downstream. The precedent exists from earlier strikes on this hub that fully suspended the Druzhba movement for a period.

• Druzhba remains the last significant Russian crude pipeline route into the EU. Overall system historical capacity is 1.2–1.4 million bpd (expandable toward 2 million in some descriptions).

The northern branch (Poland/Germany) no longer carries meaningful Russian oil. The southern branch (through Ukraine to Slovakia and Hungary) is the residual exemption route. Recent actual southern flows have been far lower than expected. on the order of ~150 kbpd even after recoveries from prior outages. These volumes still matter to landlocked refiners (MOL’s Danube in Hungary and Slovnaft in Slovakia) that are configured for pipeline-sourced Russian/Urals grades.

Alternatives (Adria pipeline, seaborne) are severely capacity-constrained, significantly more expensive, and politically contested. Months-long disruptions from the last Druzhba flow halt earlier in 2026 already forced stock draws and created political leverage.

• Products angle adds further tightness risk since reported diesel tank fires matter beyond crude. Global diesel markets have been tight amid Middle East refining disruptions, Russian refining damage, and elevated freight.

The nodes that store and move diesel/gasoline/jet fuel being hit reduces buffer storage and reliability on a corridor that also moves products. Cumulative strikes also erode the system’s ability to maintain consistent pressure and volumes without frequent slow downs for maintenance intervention.

• Worsening European Winter Worries. Tambov is deep inside Russia. Hitting a core Transneft node shows Ukraine can still reach export-relevant infrastructure despite air defenses. Repeated attacks on the same Druzhba assets (2025 + 2026) increase the odds of longer outages, higher repair costs, or forced rerouting of Russian volumes toward seaborne export points (Black Sea, Baltic) that face their own risks.

For dependent European buyers, any sustained interruption reopens the winter-supply and political-pressure questions that appeared during the earlier multi-month southern Druzhba outage.

The current southern EU flows are a fraction of peak and of the station’s nameplate capacity. This location is one of the few remaining reliable land corridors for Russian crude (and associated products) into Europe, prior strikes on it have stopped flows, and the broader energy system is already running with thinner product inventories and elevated freight. This combination is what keeps the risk premium and European winter-supply concerns elevated.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/87597

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/10/20/ukrainian-drone-strike-sparks-fire-at-oil-transit-hub-in-tambov-region-a94026

https://english.nv.ua/amp/overnight-drone-attack-targets-druzhba-pipeline-hub-in-russia-s-tambov-oblast-50651705.html

How a 2025 gallon broke down: crude 51.4% of the pump price, refining 14.3%, distribution and retail 17.8%, taxes 16.6%. At the retail end, the big oil companies owned less than 1% of stores selling fuel in 2017, Exxon stopped owning stations in 2008, and 63% of c-stores belong to companies with 10 or fewer locations.

I made a short documentary on the retail economics

For anyone who worked downstream, why did the majors decide station ownership wasn't worth it?

The United States is paving the way to end its security umbrella over Gulf countries and abandon its responsibility to protect them.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump's envoy, Tom Barrack, informed Gulf officials in Doha that Washington is no longer able to guarantee the security of their countries indefinitely, and that they must bear the responsibility for defending themselves.

Barrack emphasized that the "oil for American protection" equation, which has lasted for 80 years, is no longer sustainable, calling for the establishment of alternative regional defense alliances.

These statements come amid Iranian strikes on American military facilities in the Gulf, and reveal a dangerous shift in Washington's strategic calculations that could end decades of American dominance and military protection for Gulf countries. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-envoy-tells-nervous-gulf-allies-u-s-cant-guarantee-security-forever-f5af8521?msockid=2c401cc4f2ca682d021a089cf39d69c7 https://x.com/Cosmos_politic/status/2112652886362501202

Nine months after American forces captured Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's oil industry has the look of a boom town before the boom. US oilfield service companies are advertising jobs in Maracaibo and Maturín, drilling rigs are being shipped from Texas, and the acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, has promised almost $76 billion of investment over five years. Yet it's early days and the country's crude output has barely moved. Venezuela told OPEC it produced 1.2 million barrels a day in July and 1.206 million in September.

What has changed is not how much oil Venezuela produces, but where it goes. A year ago most of it sailed east to China. Today most of it heads north to the US Gulf Coast, into the refineries that Canadian oil sands producers have spent a decade supplying. For equity investors, that shift matters more right now than any production target. The first consequence of Venezuela's reopening is not new oil. It is a redistribution of value among the listed companies that produce, and compete with, heavy crude.

El petróleo NO viene de los dinosaurios. Eso es un mito que se popularizó comercialmente (como el dinosaurio de Sinclair Oil) para vendernos la idea de que es "super escaso".

Por simple lógica, los dinosaurios nunca pudieron ser la fuente:

1. Descomposición: Si un dinosaurio moría en tierra, venían los carroñeros o el cuerpo se descomponía al aire libre con bacterias y hongos. Para hacer petróleo se necesita un ambiente sin oxígeno, como el fondo del mar.

2. Logística imposible: A menos que varios grupos de dinosaurios organizaran un funeral colectivo y se enterraran vivos todos juntos, no hay forma de explicar la cantidad de petróleo que hay en un solo pozo.

3. Química básica: Si viniera de dinosaurios, el crudo tendría altas concentraciones de calcio por los huesos. La ciencia ya comprobó que los biomarcadores del petróleo coinciden exactamente con la grasa de microalgas y plancton marino.

El petróleo es básicamente un jugo de plancton y algas microscópicas fermentado a alta presión durante millones de años en el fondo del océano. 🦕❌ Microalgas 🟢✅

What are your thoughts on today’s oil price? Drop your opinions, predictions, charts, memes , low and high effort post, your AI slop or even analysis below. Keep it civil and on-topic! This post is renewed daily.

Unless there is some compelling reason, other posts in the sub about oil prices will be removed. In a futile effort to improve the quality.

(Current WTI/Brent price can be checked on any major site.)