The month-to-month all-items CPI spiked by 0.65% in September from August seasonally adjusted (+8.1% annualized, blue line in the chart), the second month in a row of sharp acceleration, after a low positive reading in July and the steep negative reading in June when energy prices had plunged.
Year-over-year, the all-items CPI, which includes energy and food, accelerated to 3.7% in September. Since the beginning of 2020, it has surged by over 30%.
This inflation has spread deeply into the economy. Only part of it was driven by the jump in energy prices.
A big driver was the “core services” CPI, which jumped by 0.37% (+4.5% annualized). Core services move the needle: They account for nearly two-thirds of the all-items CPI and include housing, healthcare, insurance, etc.
Another big driver was the jump in “core” goods prices, the worst since January 2025 (they exclude energy and food). Among the main culprits: prices of electronics and related products, thanks to the AI boom, and prices of used vehicles.
The biggie, inflation in services.
The core services CPI, which excludes energy services such as electricity and utility natural gas services, rose by 0.37% (+4.5% annualized) in September from August (blue in the chart below).
Part of that was driven by the resurgence of housing costs. And part of that was driven by non-housing costs as the “supercore” services CPI, which excludes housing costs, jumped by 3.7% annualized in September from August.
Year-over-year, the core services CPI rose by 3.2% (red line).
Since the beginning of 2020, the core services CPI has surged by over 31%.
The energy CPI spiked by 5.2% month to month and by 20.4% year-over-year.
The crude-oil based fuels spiked. Gasoline (roughly half of the Energy CPI), spiked by 9.3% month-to-month and by 35% year-over-year.
Electricity rose by 0.2% month-to-month and by 4.4% year-over-year.
Utility (piped) natural gas eased by 0.3% month-to-month but year-over-year jumped by 5.0%.
Since the beginning of 2020, the Energy CPI has surged by 53%. The chart shows the price level, not the percentage change:
The CPI for food at home edged down month-to-month but rose by 1.8% year-over-year, with some prices falling and others rising.
On the decline side: Egg prices have collapsed from their ridiculous spike. The price of coffee, after a ridiculous multiyear spike, has been coming down for a few months. The price of beef appears to have topped out, after a ridiculous multiyear spike, and has started to come down. Pork prices have edged down in recent months, as has dairy.
The prices of other foods have risen, including chicken, fresh fruits and vegetables, cereals, etc.
Food prices are volatile, jumping up and down. They had massively spiked during the pandemic, leading to mega profit margins for food retailers, and then hit a ceiling as shoppers refused to keep paying whatever and started shopping around once again, including online. And retailers that continued to raise their prices to fatten up their profit margins and boost their stock prices, lost sales and now started whining about consumers being tapped out (that’s you, Albertsons), when in fact, consumers bought somewhere else at a lower price, including online. Consumers are the only force that can even try to keep a lid on consumer price inflation. When they stop trying, prices spike.
Since the beginning of 2020, food prices have surged by 32%.
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