Susan Collins over performs polling. I've heard it, you've heard it, everyone's heard it. But is it really that simple?

270 to win's polling aggregate (10/6-11/1) showed Gideon up 3.8%. And there was a large number of undecided voters. This is within the margin of error. In the final election results we know Collins won by an 8.6% margin. But that margin is actually misleading. Remember people, we have RCV here. Since Collins got a majority outright, RCV didn't come into play, but if it did, we would see a more accurate representation of the real margin. Left wing independent Lisa Savage blatantly told her supporters to rank Gideon second, and this is significant because Savage won 4.95%, and those votes would have overwhelmingly gone to Gideon (obviously not literally all of them, but we can't predict exact margins). Far right wing independent Max Linn won 1.65% and honestly I feel like a lot of his voters probably didn't even rank someone second, but for the sake of fairness, let's give all his votes to Collins in the second round. Adding in those votes brings the margin to around 5.3%. This is by no means an exact estimate, but I don't think its unreasonable, and I think its more reflective than the technical margin. +3.8% Gideon to +5.3% Collins is still a massive polling error, 9.1% off, but not the 12% that some people throw around without context.

Looking at Maine's presidential polling for 2020, 270 to win polling aggregate predicted Biden winning by 11.6% in Maine. Biden won by 9.1% in reality. Only 2.5% off, which is actually pretty solid. But the really significant error we see here in Maine's second congressional district. 270 to win had Biden carry ME-2 by 1.2%. In reality, Trump won it by 7.4%. That is 8.6% off. Almost as off as the senate race. For anyone curious, ME-1 was a mere 0.3% off, which is very accurate.

For the House races, there weren't really enough polls for aggregates, so I'll just average the polls within the last month before the election. For ME-1, the polls were only off by about 1.4%, underestimating Pingree slightly, but overall good. In ME-2, polls somehow had Golden +20.3%. That's not a joke. Golden only won by 6.1% in the final results. That is 14.2% off, which is insane, worse than the senate race.

The clear pattern in 2020 was specifically ME-2 underestimating Republicans. ME-1 was fine. However, it seems that pollsters have largely corrected ME-2 polling since then.

In 2022, polling for ME-2's house race within the last month showed Golden up by 5.5% on the first round. In the actual results, Golden was up by about 3.7%. The polls were off by only 1.8%, which is pretty good.

The 2022 gubernatorial polling within the last month predicted 9.8% win for Mills. She won by about 13.2%. The polls underestimated Mills by 3.4%, which isn't bad, but the polling bias shifting so significantly shows how much pollsters adjusted after the 2020 blunder, and they apparently even overcorrected a bit.

Finally in 2024, ME-2 polling within the last month showed Golden around 2.6% ahead. The final margin was 0.7% for Golden. 1.9% off is solid. Polling for the presidential race in ME-2 had Trump up by 4.5%. Trump won it by 9%. 4.5% off isn't great, but Trump messes with polling in general, and he isn't on the ballot in 2026 anyway. For anyone curious about the senate race, the Republican was underestimated by 3.1%.

So overall, it seems that ME-2 was the culprit behind 2020 polling being so off. It also seems like there have been significant changes that have largely corrected the polling errors. One major difference is that there is significantly less undecided voters, because of polarization. 2026 is not 2020, we're even more polarized now.

Can the polling be off this time? Absolutely, obviously, duh. 2.2% is well within the margin of error. Go vote, you have no excuse not to. Early or on election day, I don't care, vote as if you're going to lose by 10% if you don't.

The point of this post is not to tell you to be comfortable that the election will go to Jackson and it doesn't matter if you vote. No. The point is that the dooming and in some cases almost early concessions to a Collins victory is frankly suffocating and obnoxious. Everyone honestly needs to chill out and throw the polling out the window, it doesn't matter. We shouldn't be assuming either candidate is locked in. However you feel about the post, just go vote ASAP.

Every day a new revelation. I’ve always known that she’s a liar and that she’s corrupt, but honestly she’s giving Diaper Don a run for his money.

https://mainedems.org/breaking-susan-collins-raked-in-wall-street-cash-before-advancing-trump-tax-bill-rolling-stone/

Can anyone confirm and name the other mountains in the pic?

theres a new flock camera pointing down blue star avenue near the ninety nine restraunt

Hard to imagine something worse for downtown Bangor. A huge tar patch next to a huge facility they want to vacate.

Those three old men that are Penobscot county need to get a grip

Hi All! Has anyone ever baked with Allen’s coffee brandy? I like to bake and my supervisor is retiring. Allen’s coffee brandy has always been a bit of a joke with my supervisor and I’d love to bake something with it for her retirement party. I’ve looked at recipes using kahlua, but Allen’s has a much higher alcohol content, so I don’t know if I can just swap it. I’d like to bake something like bars/brownies or maybe a basic cake. Any recipes you can share or suggestions would be greatly appreciated! Thanks!

Hi I am 25 years old. I was just recently working at 207 plumbing and heating doing havc service and plumbing. They just hired 3 new people and with no explanation but that they can’t afford to have me let me go. Things happen that are out of your control it’s whatever.

I have been doing havc for 7 years with a mix of plumbing and rather do plumbing. I have over 1,000 signed off but can’t find a single place looking for any apprentices.

Any recommendations?

I spotted two cats on Bridge st near Dana Warp mill. They appeared about 10 minutes apart and weren’t traveling together.

One was black and white all over.

The other was cream-colored toward the face/front, gradually becoming darker brown toward the rear and tail, possibly a Ragdoll or similar-looking cat. This cat also had very cloudy eyes and seemed to struggle to see me.

Posting in case anyone is missing a cat since I haven’t seen them around before.

With early voting underway and Election Day fast approaching, faith-based groups have been working to engage voters across the political spectrum in Maine. Conservative and progressive organizations alike have distributed voting materials to churches, each emphasizing issue areas that are important to them, such as abortion and voting rights.

One conservative faith group has been involved with large get-out-the-vote events, including the one in Bangor, while progressive groups have phone-banked, doorknocked and trained faith leaders to support voters at the polls on Election Day.

Read the story for free on The Maine Monitor's website.

There's a massive area being cleared out this morning in the south Sanford woods, behind Fogg's Auto. Anyone know what's supposed to be going in there? Really hoping this isn't some data center or something

Just like the title says, not going to say the town so I don't dox myself but I'm trying to find someone in York county that would be able to install a woodstove/pellet stove I pick up from a store like Home Depot.

I have a hearth in my home , just never got around to setting it up but with oil prices I'm trying to consider options to get something in place to save a buck or two.