r/LosAngelesRealEstate • u/ShanetheMortgageMan • 4h ago
Southern California's next housing target is 1.36 million homes
California's Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) released its 7th Cycle Regional Housing Needs Determination, estimating that Southern California needs 1,359,750 additional housing units for the next housing planning cycle, covering 2029 through 2037. That's an increase of 17,923 units, or about 1.3%, compared with the current regional target of 1,341,827 homes.
The figure covers all six counties represented by the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG): Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura and Imperial. The new targets for individual counties and cities haven't been determined yet as SCAG must develop a methodology for distributing the regional housing need before assigning numbers to each jurisdiction.
For comparison, under the current 2021–2029 housing cycle, Los Angeles County was allocated 812,060 housing units, representing approximately 60.5% of the six-county regional total. That included 456,643 units for the City of Los Angeles, 90,052 for unincorporated Los Angeles County, 26,502 for Long Beach, 9,429 for Pasadena and 8,895 for Santa Monica.
The new regional determination also breaks down housing needs by household income. Of the 1.36 million units, approximately 770,000 (56.6%) are designated for households earning 80% or less of area median income, including 141,930 (10.4%) for acutely low-income households, 180,582 (13.3%) for extremely low-income households, 189,752 (14.0%) for very low-income households and 257,749 (19.0%) for low-income households. Another 124,839 units (9.2%) fall into the moderate-income category, with 464,898 units (34.2%) designated above moderate income.
HCD's calculations account for more than projected population growth. Across the six-county region, 9.66% of households are classified as overcrowded, compared with a national average of 3.54%. Approximately 43.19% of households are housing-cost burdened, compared with 31.45% nationally. The methodology also includes adjustments for homelessness, vacant housing, demolished units and homes destroyed during declared emergencies that haven't been rebuilt or replaced.
Under SCAG's current timeline, a proposed allocation methodology is expected in March 2027, with the final allocation plan scheduled for April 2028. Los Angeles County jurisdictions will then have until April 15, 2030, to update their housing elements.
