r/Environmentalism • u/jetermans_ • 15h ago
r/Environmentalism • u/NihiloZero • Nov 05 '25
The 2025 state of the climate report: a planet on the brink
academic.oup.comr/Environmentalism • u/NihiloZero • Sep 05 '26
On the likelihood and related consequences of a “blue ocean event” in the Arctic Ocean...
Annoyed at being called an “anti-science doomer,” I decided to sort through and present some quotes from academic literature about the likelihood of a “blue ocean event” (BOE) wherein the Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free during the summer. Additionally, I conclude with quotes from scientific articles about the severe, diverse, and under-recognized consequences of that BOE happening.
Previously, a BOE had not been expected until mid-century because overly-optimistic climate change models didn’t have us projected to reach the +1.5C to +1.9C threshold of warming (required to trigger the event) until much later. Unfortunately… the dramatic acceleration of global warming over the past decade (capped off by the current “Supersized” “Godzilla” El Nino) means that we will reach and breach that threshold for Arctic melting much sooner than previously expected.
The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030
&
To quantify the amount of warming that would cause the Arctic Ocean to become nearly ice free, we examine at which level of warming sea ice area drops below 1 × 106 km2. For the high-sensitivity observational estimate, we find that sea ice area in September drops below this threshold for about 1.7°C global warming. Considering the ensemble spread in sensitivities, we obtain a 95% confidence interval of 1.5°C to 1.9°C for the global warming at which September Arctic sea ice vanishes.
&
Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, with Arctic temperature anomalies expected to continue to be higher than the global mean, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), produced by the UK’s Met Office.
&
For the second consecutive year, winter sea ice in the Arctic reached a level that matches the lowest peak observed since satellite monitoring began in 1979.
The impacts of a BOE include...
Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 °C (interquartile range: 0.39−0.46 °C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century.
&
This is equivalent to the effect of one trillion tons of CO2 emissions. These results suggest that the additional heating due to complete Arctic sea ice loss would hasten global warming by an estimated 25 years.
&
We present evidence that material from the sea ice was indeed present in the water column and that this mechanism appears to be important in maintaining active populations of planktonic protists through the polar night. Our upscaling exercise based on observed ridge formation rates suggests that such release of food particles can supply extra energy during the polar night to the pelagic food web in the entire Arctic Ocean. It follows from this that the predicted ice-free summers in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming, may have implications for the protist community at the base of the food web, because the winter food reservoir in the sea ice will be very much reduced if there is no sea ice to accumulate it during the most productive summer period.
&
Finally, we suggest that shifts in the phenology, distribution and biomass of sea ice primary production anticipated with declining seasonal sea ice will disrupt sympagic-pelagic-benthic coupling and consequently the structure and the functioning of the food web which is critical for Indigenous Peoples, commercial fisheries, and global biodiversity.
This collection of quotes (with links to to formal academic sources) represents the backbone of my broader general belief that ecological collapse (and therefore social & civilizational collapse) is likely within the next few years. Taken together, I believe that it paints a rather clear picture of what is shortly in store for the world. But, until that point, I hope this post can serve as a resource whenever related concerns about collapse are dismissed or denied as being alarmist or anti-science.
I do understand that the prognosis this post represents is grim. However... I am of the sort which believes that “the truth shall set you free,” and the prognosis is even more grim if people don’t widely understand the true nature and extent of the actual problems we are facing. You can’t fix a problem if you don’t recognize the problem. And if society doesn’t generally understand a problem... it will be more likely to obstruct any potential solution or proper response. Whether any viable solutions are possible or not... I think the truth affords people some dignity insofar as they don’t have to behave in ridiculous or counterproductive ways while the environment and society collapses around them.
Whether you intend to prevent the related ecological collapse, or if you’d rather just live more freely in these final years of human life on Earth... it is my hope that this document facilitates that.
r/Environmentalism • u/globalsouthworld • 13h ago
‘We want water, not poison’ - Guadalajara protests end in fires and vandalism
r/Environmentalism • u/Fit-Bee5561 • 19h ago
‘Neither Alive Nor Dead’: The Staggering Complexity of Bogs
r/Environmentalism • u/theindependentonline • 13h ago
Environmental and human rights abuses in supply chains ‘costing UK £4.4bn a year’
r/Environmentalism • u/Amitmandal001 • 13h ago
'Nature bounces back': South Downs rewilding project boosts butterfly numbers at beauty spot.
A rewilding project at a South Downs National Park beauty spot has helped create a boom in butterfly numbers - including two nationally important species spotted at the site for the first time.
A total of 5,290 individual butterflies from 28 species - such as the dingy skipper and the UK's smallest species, the small blue - have been counted during surveys, following the renaturing work at Halnaker Hill Farm, near Chichester, West Sussex.
The boost in butterfly numbers comes after work at the site - which is famous for its windmill - to return 330 acres of previously intensively farmed land into a scenery rich in flora and fauna.
The team at Halnaker Hill Farm have been working with consultants at the South Downs National Park Authority, which is heading a "ReNature" programme to prevent biodiversity loss across 7,700 hectares of land - equivalent to more than 12,000 football pitches.
Conservationist Neil Hulme said the data "clearly indicate how rapidly and spectacularly the rich mosaic of habitat types at Halnaker Hill Farm has developed".
Meanwhile, Nick Heasman, head of natural capital for the South Downs National Park, said that the Halnaker project - which is owned by Halnaker Hill Natural Capital (HHNC) - would deliver more than 850 biodiversity net gain (BNG) units.
r/Environmentalism • u/steelconor • 1d ago
Big Meat, Big Dairy, and the Ugly Face of Climate Denial
Climate denial isn’t always “global warming is a hoax.” Sometimes it’s “nothing needs to change.”
We’re sold “sustainable beef” and “climate-friendly dairy”—the comforting idea that we can keep consuming as usual while someone else fixes the consequences.
What struck me in this article is the question of responsibility: corporations sell reassurance, but how willing are we to question reassurance when it protects our own habits?
That doesn’t let governments or corporations off the hook. Individual choices shouldn’t become an excuse to avoid regulation, transparency, or systemic change. But demanding systemic change shouldn’t become an excuse to never examine our own choices, either.
Where do you draw the line between genuine environmental progress and marketing that simply makes us feel better about buying the same things?
r/Environmentalism • u/Useful-Resource-4896 • 1d ago
From the Mountains to the Sea: The Youth-Led Resolution Protecting Longperson
r/Environmentalism • u/Avaaz_org • 1d ago
Beyond the election noise: Can Amazon protections actually survive on the ground if local enforcement keeps getting undercut?
apnews.comHey everyone,
Reading recent coverage on Brazil's political landscape (like this AP report), almost all the focus is on the horse race, but the environmental clock is ticking much faster.
Scientists keep warning that the Amazon is dangerously close to an ecological tipping point—where widespread degradation could turn huge parts of the rainforest into dry savanna.
What strikes me is that no matter what gets promised in capital cities, the reality on the ground always seems to come down to environmental enforcement agencies (like IBAMA) being chronically underfunded or actively pushed out by local land-clearing lobbies and illegal logging networks.
For people following forest conservation or working in field protection:
When national politics are gridlocked and local pressure to clear land is huge, what conservation models have actually succeeded in keeping ecosystems intact? Does international supply-chain pressure work, or does real protection only happen when local/indigenous communities hold legal land rights?
r/Environmentalism • u/Apprehensive-Ad6212 • 2d ago
Artificial mangrove roots offer a stopgap for Thailand’s eroding coastline
r/Environmentalism • u/nishant-12345 • 2d ago
Climate Denialism: Are We Ignoring the Science or Protecting Our Comfort?
Despite overwhelming scientific evidence, climate denialism continues. But why?
In this discussion, Acharya Prashant challenges common climate denial arguments using scientific data on rising CO₂ levels, natural warming cycles, fossil fuel emissions, and the economic consequences of climate change.
He also conducts a live experiment using ice, water, and temperature measurements to visually demonstrate glacial melting, rising water levels, and the dangers of sudden ice collapse and flooding.
His central argument goes deeper:
Climate denialism is an unwillingness to accept truths that threaten our desires, conveniences, and economic interests
The desires can only be tackled by approaching and understanding the central error creating those desires: the ego
We know what fossil fuels are doing to the planet, yet our lifestyles and economies remain deeply attached to them.
The environmental crisis isn't about what we don't know, it is about what we're unwilling to change despite knowing.
Can we truly address climate change without questioning the desires and consumption habits driving environmental destruction?
r/Environmentalism • u/Sensitive-Vast-4979 • 3d ago
What climate action have you took ?
Like not just changing your own actions like , joining a environmentalist group , making a wildlife charity , contacting your mp etc etc , what have you done or want to do but just haven’t yet
r/Environmentalism • u/NihiloZero • 3d ago
Plastic isn't as inert as we'd thought: Everyday microplastics sitting in water spontaneously make reactive oxygen, a damaging chemical that makes proteins clump and burst red blood cells.
r/Environmentalism • u/Vegetable_Curve_4572 • 3d ago
Need help reporting an illegal dump that heavily pollutes a pond and sounding area
I use to go to a farm and found out they have a dump on their property that leaks horse waste into the water bed, they also dump trash. I can't report it because Florida makes the reports public. Does anyone live in Florida that would be willing to file the report for me
r/Environmentalism • u/NihiloZero • 3d ago
Why We Should(n't) Geoengineer Our Planet
r/Environmentalism • u/TheMirrorUS • 4d ago
Trump says that 'wild animals' will eat locals in Montana if Democrats 'take away' guns
r/Environmentalism • u/jetermans_ • 5d ago
IPCC is under pressure to delay publication of key global climate report
r/Environmentalism • u/Brief-Ecology • 5d ago
Reclamation — Brief Ecology
r/Environmentalism • u/StemCellPirate • 6d ago
Scientists deploy a 24-armed secret weapon to save California’s kelp forests
r/Environmentalism • u/TheMirrorUS • 7d ago
Donald Trump accused of 'pet vanity project' as federal judge urged to halt golf course plans after over 500 trees cut down
r/Environmentalism • u/ArchipelagoDrift • 6d ago
New salmon farmers scheme condemned as “greenwashing opportunity”
r/Environmentalism • u/NihiloZero • 6d ago
Extreme drought and heat from the last El Niño signal a 'new normal' for tropical forests
r/Environmentalism • u/Amitmandal001 • 7d ago
At 76, a retired Australian doctor restored 120 hectares of a 200-hectare property with thousands of native trees, turning a long-term conservation project into a legacy for future generations
When Susan Downes bought an old farmhouse in York, Western Australia, she had imagined a quiet life in the countryside, with a small garden to look after. Instead, she found herself the owner of a 200-hectare property, including a hill where old native trees had survived more than a century of grazing but much of the vegetation beneath them had disappeared.
Nearly two decades later, the 76-year-old retired general practitioner has turned a substantial part of the land into a conservation project. About 120 hectares have been restored, around 45,000 native seedlings have been planted, and 45 plant species have returned naturally from seeds already present in the soil. As reported by The Guardian, Downes is now working to ensure that the work continues long after she is gone.
Downes was in her 60s, widowed and with her children grown up, when she began looking for a home in the countryside. The farmhouse in York appealed to her, but the size of the property initially seemed impractical. A second visit changed her mind. At the back of the farm, she discovered Mount Mackie, a 295-metre hill where ancient York gums and wandoos had survived about 150 years of grazing. Much of the understorey had vanished, leaving the old trees as some of the most visible remnants of the original landscape.
“I felt a great connection to the land,” Downes told The Guardian.
She decided to buy the property and began looking for ways to restore it. Her first step was to obtain a small local grant to control foxes and feral cats. She then secured funding for 24,000 trees over three years, giving her the means to begin planting on a larger scale. Downes had started her professional career as a botanist, but restoring a large property required more than an interest in plants.
The work involved managing invasive animals, removing weeds, planting seedlings and organising the practical details of a long-term conservation effort. Today, the restoration covers 120 hectares of her working farm. The return of 45 plant species through the soil's natural seed bank has also contributed to the recovery of the landscape.
For Downes, restoring the land is only part of the task. She also wants to ensure that the area cannot be cleared again in the future. She is working to place the restored land under a conservation covenant, a legal arrangement that can protect land from certain forms of development or clearing. The project is supported by Friends of Mt Mackie, a local volunteer group with a core team of about eight people and more than 80 others who take part in organised planting and seed-collection days. Downes has also been thinking about who will look after the property in the future.
The deaths and dementia diagnoses of friends have made her more conscious of how uncertain the time available to complete a long-term project can be.
She told The Guardian that she wants the arrangements for the land's future responsibility to be firmly established. Her hope is that her children and grandchildren will be inspired by the work, while the wider community will continue to have access to the place. The project also has a cultural dimension.
Ballardong women from York visit Mount Mackie several times a year for cultural healing sessions. Downes is working with Ballardong elders to find an Aboriginal name for the hill. Planning is also under way for a reconciliation event in 2030, marking 200 years since European arrival in the region.