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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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Ukraine's big woe has been the lack of Patriot missiles. But Ukraine is a big country with a decent industrial and engineering base and an industrial-military complex that has progressed immensely and delivered some impressive innovations at scale. Meanwhile they have had access to the Patriot system for a long time. They would not even need to invent a whole lot, just copy it. Where is the catch?

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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In the Ukrainian-Russian War, The Israeli/US-Iran War, and the ongoing Saudi-Houthi War, the ineffectiveness of air defenses against saturation attacks by drone and ballistic missile barrage has been a clear and inarguable reality. In some cases, even single drones, wholly guided by AI and impervious to EW, has maneuvered around radars to strike far behind enemy lines. The effect is that ground-based defenses have become clearly inadequate.

And with the evolution of drones from ICE engines to jet/rocket propulsion, built at a small fraction of the cost of an intercepting aircraft and far less than their cheapest munitions, while also being manufactured at a far higher rate, the air-to-air element of defense is clearly untenable, more so in the near future.

And this is disregarding the rapid evolution of ballistic missiles, with the technology to build relatively advanced versions already disseminated, and in reach of factions like the Houthis, who aren’t exactly a wealthy, cutting-edge military power.

In light of all this:

1) Are we witnessing the end of the air-defense doctrine’s that have allowed for the projection of power by “great powers” and their allies?

2) How will this affect (upend?) the current, global geopolitical balance of power?

3) To borrow from gaming-parlance, have we reached the end of the “tech tree” in terms of effective air defense?

4) What doctrinal evolution will take the place of the current paradigm? And to head off the “lasers!” argument; neither is the technology is mature enough, nor the physical limitations of range, adverse weather conditions, and the simple counter of ablative heat-tiles make them effective replacements (although I welcome any corrections to this assessment).

5) In regard to the Iran-Israel exchange in particular, there are whispers among military analysts that Iran’s calculations included the possibility of an Israeli nuclear response if their barrages were too effective. And in light of that, could we see doctrines evolve in that direction?

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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The authors write that “the key question is whether the Turkish-Saudi-Pakistani security agreement merely defends Saudi Arabia from the Houthis or institutes a wider regional order,” noting that Turkey and Pakistan “moved from declaratory support to practical measures aimed at strengthening Saudi Arabia’s defense,” which is ultimately also aimed at limiting the Houthis operational freedom and restoring maritime security and international shipping around Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea. Sustained operations in Yemen “will require personnel, weapons, technology, and money.” They conclude that “the Mecca Pact does not yet amount to a new regional order,” but that if it can “defend Saudi Arabia, constrain the Houthis, and coordinate security across the Red Sea without drawing its members into a wider war, other states will take notice.” As a NATO ally, Turkey faces special considerations. Ankara must balance the pact’s credibility with its existing alliance responsibilities and its desire to avoid direct confrontation with Iran or prolonged combat in Yemen. Ultimately, success depends on providing credible protection and regional coordination without allowing a defensive partnership to become an expanding regional war.

Link: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/the-mecca-pacts-yemen-test

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TLDR: 1) The Chinese got caught surveying a Russian subsea cable that I couldn’t find anything public about. 2) the stats say China research vessels spent more time in the high seas where no one is looking and there’s fancy stars for significance 3) Russians spent less time mapping critical infrastructure in the high seas than the Chinese and US. 4) Chinese vessels map near sub sea cables.

Something I don’t get though is why Russia isn’t showing a positive association? I thought with all the shenanigans happing in Western Europe with cables they would for sure be messing around.

A lot of math

https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-weaponization-dual-use-research-vessels-undersea-data-dominance

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The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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Texas plant built to mass-produce 155mm artillery shells has never delivered a single usable shell.

The production equipment (factory lines)..came from Turkey...collected a $435 million no-bid contract..a guaranteed production/delivery schedule.

When the Army asked to inspect Repkon’s active lines abroad, the company refused, citing customer privacy. Washington decided to purchase three lines anyway, without ever requiring a demonstration that one actually worked.

What arrived..malfunctioned in nearly every way a factory can.

• ..cracked it beyond repair..
• ..caught fire repeatedly..
• ..smashed into computer-controlled machines..
• ..shells smooth noses mangled..
• ..machines deformed..made with Chinese steel..

..projected in..2024 that approximately 30 percent of..155mm rounds ..(some 30,000 projectiles a month).

As of..2026..produced none that met contract specifications..blew eight deadlines..

..most of the Repkon equipment is being ripped out and replaced with conventional machinery.

None of this dampened Ankara’s enthusiasm. Turkish state media praised Repkon’s American expansion..Repkon signed a contract to build Pakistan a 155mm line rated at 120,000 rounds a year.

In..2026..Repkon USA rebranded as Paligen Technologies, which insists it and Repkon are wholly separate companies.

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/08/28/zero-shells-for-533-million/

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