r/CanadaFinance • u/Staminapatrol1 • 13h ago
Canada has had 5 consecutive months of double-digit producer inflation while losing jobs. Are we heading toward 1980s-style stagflation?
I've been looking at Canada's inflation numbers lately and there's something I find pretty alarming that barely seems to get any attention. Everyone talks about CPI being at 3%, but have you looked at the Producer Price Index (IPPI)?
In August, Canadian producer prices were up 13.5% year over year. Even excluding energy, they're up 9.1%. Raw material prices are up 22.8%.
And it's not like this happened overnight. Producer inflation has been above 10% for five consecutive months now, since April. If September comes in above 10% again, that'll make six months straight. Meanwhile, we've lost roughly 110,000 jobs in August and September alone. I don't know about you, but I find that combination pretty concerning.
People might dismiss the PPI increase because a lot of it comes from energy, but isn't that exactly the problem? Energy affects practically everything. Transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, food processing, distribution, you name it. When energy gets more expensive, so does producing and delivering just about anything. Businesses can absorb some of those increases, sure, but eventually some of those costs get passed on to consumers. And with how concentrated some of our industries are in Canada, especially grocery retail, I'm not particularly confident consumers will be shielded from those increases. The thing is, even excluding energy, we're still looking at 9.1% producer inflation. Granted, precious metals account for part of that, but we're also seeing increases in chemicals, packaging and food-related manufacturing.
And here's what I find especially interesting. If September stays above 10%, we'll have had six consecutive months of double-digit producer inflation. Excluding the COVID period, the last comparable stretch in the historical data goes back to the early 1980s. Remember what happened around that time? High inflation, rising unemployment, interest rates through the roof and a brutal recession.
We're entering a period where production costs have been rising rapidly for months, while our labour market is already deteriorating. What happens if those higher costs keep filtering through to consumers over the next 6–12 months, while unemployment continues to rise?
What exactly is the Bank of Canada supposed to do? Cut rates to support the economy and risk adding to inflation? Or keep rates elevated and risk making the employment situation worse?
That's basically the stagflation scenario I'm worried about.
I feel like we're all looking at CPI and assuming things are relatively under control because it's at 3%, while there's a pretty massive amount of price pressure further up the production chain. Maybe I'm overreacting, but I genuinely think we could be heading into a very difficult 2027, with persistent inflation, a weakening economy and potentially a recession and a crisis.
I'm curious what other people think. Am I putting too much weight on PPI, or is this a legitimate warning sign that we're largely ignoring?
I'd also be interested to hear from anyone working in manufacturing, food distribution or transportation. Are you seeing these cost increases firsthand? Are businesses absorbing them, or are they already passing them along?
Sources:
Statistics Canada — Industrial Product Price Index, August 2026