r/CVFirebirds • u/sisterthirteen • 17h ago
Analysis FLIGHT PLAN: FIREBIRDS @ CANUCKS | OCTOBER 17, 2026 | 7:00 PM PDT | OCTOBER 18, 2026 | 4:00 PM PDT
đ Location: Rogers Forum - Abbotsford, BC
đïž Dates and Times: Saturday, October 17th, 7:00 PM PT, and Sunday October 18th, 4:00 PM PT
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This weekend's FLIGHT PLAN is brought to you by the always awesome u/ErsoRoot subbing in for our OG u/E_lluminate.
CV Firebirds are coming into this game at 2-1-2 after losing their last 2 games, including a 4-0 loss against Henderson on Wednesday, but we won't dwell on that game too much as we look forward to this weekend's games against Abbotsford.
SPECIAL TEAMS NEED TO RISE UP
The Firebirds came into Wednesdayâs game against Henderson with a strong special teams record, sitting at 38.9% on the PP and a PK of 89.5%. But nothing went right for the Firebirds, starting with a hooking call against Alexis Bernier midway into the 1st. From there, it was penalty after penalty, with 9 infractions and 24 PIM served by the Birds, and HSK racking up 10 calls for a total of 26 PIM. If you take out the four 5-minute majors, thatâs half the game being played by special teams.
Henderson capitalized on the player differential and put up 4 goals, while the always-impressive Carl Lindbom turned away every one of the Firebirdsâ attempts. Adding insult to injury, each of HSKâs goals came from opportunities that resulted from CV penalties. The Silver Knights scored three power play goals in the first two periods, and the final goal in the third came from a short-handed penalty shot after Tyson Jugnauth took down Joe Fleming on a breakaway. Â
I wonât rub more salt in the wound, but if we canât stay out of the box, we need our special teams to step up and take charge of the situation.
ALWAYS FORWARD AND ONWARD
This weekend the Firebirds are up north facing the Abbotsford Canucks, including some of our favorite former Firebirds, Kole Lind and Jimmy Schuldt. I donât have to remind the Firebirds Faithful that these two can be a pain to play against!  Â
Itâs ABBâs home opener, so you know they will be hungry for a win. The Canucks lost their first two games to Calgary, but fared better against Colorado, coming away with three points after a shootout loss followed by a 4-3 win. They havenât played since Sunday, so they could be rested or rusty. From the Canucks' social media, it looks like the team has been keeping busy this week volunteering for Habitat for Humanity and serving customers at Tim Horton's.
Firebirds have dominated Abbotsford over the last 5 years with a 19(W)-4(L)-0(OTL)-1(SOL) record against the Canucks and last season went 7-0-0-0. So this is the game to really take advantage, especially since the Canucks are currently 1-2-0-1 holding down the bottom of the division to start off the season. Even though we have a winning history against the Canucks, this is not a game to take your mind off and try to coast.
Abbotsfordâs top line of Lind, Braden Cootes, and Trey Fix-Wolansky, is their biggest threat. That line scored two of ABBâs four goals on Sunday against Colorado, with Cootes & Lind later combining for the GWG on the power play. Cootes, a former Seattle Thunderbird, is already showing breakout potential. He was Vancouver's 1st round pick in 2025, drafted 15th overall, behind Seattle's Jake O'Brien, selected 8th that year. The Canucks are also averaging 32.25 SOG per game, compared to the Firebirdsâ average of 26.8, with only 17 and 26 SOGs in their most recent games.
Here are the keys on how the Firebirds can win these games.
1. Stay out of the box.
Coachella Valley has been shorthanded 25 times in 5 games (5.0 per night), and the penalty kill is 80.0% (20th in the AHL). On the road it drops to 70.0% (3 of 10 killed), though that sample size is small. The team averages 16.6 PIM per game compared to Abbotsfordâs 9.8, and the extremes were 29 PIM against Ontario on Oct 2 and 24 at Henderson on Oct 14. Dragicevic (22 PIM, 2 majors), Olofsson (10) and Hayden (9) are the biggest contributors. Abbotsfordâs power play is only 14.3% (21st), so the bigger cost of penalties is lost time and momentum.
2. Make the power play count.
Abbotsford has been shorthanded only 13 times in 4 games (3.25 per night) and has the 4th-best PK at 92.3% (1 goal allowed). Chances will be limited, so the Firebirds have to convert them. Theyâre 7-for-25 (28.0%, 3rd in the AHL), with Nyman at 3 PPG and Jugnauth at 5 PPA. Getting the Jugnauth-to-Nyman connection going is the clearest path.
3. Score first and close out the lead.
Both of the Firebirdsâ OT losses were 1-goal games. Theyâre 0-0-2-0 when leading after the first period but 2-0-1-0 when leading after two. The Canucks are 0-1-0-0 when trailing after the first and 0-1-0-0 when trailing after the second. Abbotsford has also scored no more than 1 goal in any first period this season, while Coachella Valley scored 3 in the first against Ontario on Oct 2. A fast start would put pressure on a team that hasnât yet won from behind.
4. Shut down a thin Canucks attack.
Abbotsford has scored just 11 goals (2.75 per game), and five players account for all of them: Ty Mueller (4), Braeden Cootes (2), Kole Lind (2), Jimmy Schuldt (2) and Vilmer Alriksson (1). Mueller is on a 4-game goal streak, scoring on 28.6% of his 14 shots, and Fix-Wolansky has 4 assists. Taking away that top line forces the Canucks to find offense elsewhere.
5. Goaltending has to hold up.
Coachella Valleyâs team save percentage is .885 and its GAA is 3.55. Abbotsford is nearly identical at .887 and 3.43, so whichever goalie stands tall could decide this. Ăstman (.928, 2.42) has been much sturdier than Kokko (.851, 4.32). The Firebirds face about 31 shots per game, so the defense needs to limit high-danger chances in front of whoever starts.
6. Get the depth going.
Scoring is top-heavy. Jugnauth, Nyman and Firkus have 22 of the teamâs points. Rehkopf has 11 shots with no points, Hayden has 13 shots at a 7.7% shooting rate, and Roed is -4. Any of them breaking through would take pressure off the top line.
Bottom line:Â
The Firebirds can win if they stay disciplined, take advantage of their few power plays, and score first. History is on their side, with a 7-1-0-0 record against Abbotsford last season and 11-1-0-0 in their last five seasons at Rogers Forum.
Additionally, the Firebirds will be missing Alternate Captain Ty Nelson after getting the call up to the Kraken. With Nelson missing, the Firebirds will be losing Nelson, they have called up Charlie Wright from Kansas City Mavericks. The defense will need to step up with Nelson gone, and take advantage of the opportunity to show what they got without a key defensemen on the team.
Canucks have signed defender Andre Anania, from the ECHL's Allen Americans, to a PTO. No other roster changes for Abbotsford have been mentioned at the time of posting.
TONIGHT'S LINEUP LAB
Inside the Rink has the below -- but still lists Nelson as playing on the top D pair. We'll post an update as soon as we get one.
Nyman â MĂžlgaard â Firkus
Ć alĂ© â Morrison â Hayden
Roed â Miettinen â Stephens
Villeneuve â Evers â Rehkopf
Olofsson â Nelson
Jugnauth â Dragicevic
Price â Bernier
Kokko / Ăstman
And if you haven't checked out Beneath the Waves weekly Firebirds show, you can catch it here: Heat Check Episode 2 â Firebirds Are Red Hot!
Drop your score predictions, first Firebirds goal scorers, goalie guesses, preferred line combinations, and how many scrums will involve Lindy.
LET'S GO BIRDS.Â