After Hipkins come Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick on 4.0 and Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong on 3.8, followed by NZ First leader Winston Peters on 3.7.

ACT leader David Seymour follows on 3.4 and Green co-leader Marama Davidson is on 3.3. Te Pāti Māori’s co-leaders have the lowest overall ratings, with Debbie Ngarewa-Packer on 2.1 and Rawiri Waititi on 1.9.

Hipkins somehow manages to win best Chris award, Dipkins is just lucky that Fuxon is such an unappealing ball bag.

Nothing really surprising, young people like Chlöe etc etc.

I've been working on NZ Votes, where you can compare published polls side by side and explore parliament seat estimates, latest news, find your electorate, review 2023 results on a map and more.

On election day the plan is to show the live poll count on the map.

It's a personal, non-commercial project with no party affiliation. The aim is to keep it neutral, with source links so people can check things themselves.

Looking to get some more eyes on it and get some feedback.

I'm not phased either way but I've been absolutely floored this evening by some of the moderators behaviour in the r/nzpolitics subreddit - which I admit I typically align with (to some extent) politically - when kinda challenging some of the presumptions and assumptions of TOPs alternative motives/conflicts of interests - apparently quoting the Office of the Auditor General's documentation on managing conflicts of interest is both a bannable and mutable offence

Greens at 15 is wild, but before their gang love-in blew up. IMO, hopefully that doesn't send some of their voters to TOP, who could have peaked at the wrong time.

Tāmaki is shaping up to be an interesting electorate to watch.

Historically held by Simon O'Connor of National. In 2023, Brooke Van Velden campaigned hard and took the seat off him, with the electorate likely to be punishing Simon for his extreme pro-life opinions. Now with BVV stepping down, its an open seat. The boundaries have been redrawn with an additional 2000 votes added to the electorate in Point England which has potential to be good news for Labour.

There are 3 strong candidates- Max Harris of Labour, Mahesh Muralidhar of National and James Christmas of ACT.

The 3 candidates did a good interview/debate at bFM this week, linked below. Interested to hear the sub's thoughts on this close race.

https://www.youtube.com/live/pEsP-IH58zo?t=977&si=8YYCgIRdAsj9UgGJ

Great article collating each party's approach to food security with a very tidy infographic comparing their policies to the recommendations in the Public Health Advisory Committee's 2024 Rebalancing Our Food System report. From the article:

The Public Health Advisory Committee report was framed as an opportunity to address some of the challenges facing the national food system.

It was based on the premise that access to food is a basic human right and an equitable food system will see better health outcomes.

However, there is little political consensus on what a fair and healthy food system should actually look like. Party political ideologies variously favour market-driven, interventionist, preventative or reactive strategies.

With the election weeks away, voters have the opportunity to decide which aisle they’re standing in and which political brand they are buying.

Which political brand are you buying? On the table is a government-owned player 'KiwiMart', breaking up the existing duopoly, intervening in other ways like free school lunches, or doing nothing at all.

Over the last few months, Luxon has repeatedly and emphatically ruled out working with Opportunity, saying National won't "do business" with a party that wants to raise taxes. He explicitly ruled then out for like the 5th time in the debate this week. Qiulae Wong has kept the door open and in the past said she expects he'd change his tune if the alternative is opposition. More recently she seems to be coming around to the idea that perhaps it is a genuine position saying "it looks like we might be speaking to Labour".

I really don't understand the endgame here. Luxon has been so clear about this that I can't see how he'd have the political capital to reverse it in negotiations. Imagine National gets the most votes, Opportunity calls, and it's reported that Luxon declined to form a government, staying true to his word. Wouldn't their own voters be furious? Do National voters dislike Opportunity enough that they'd rather sit in opposition than see that coalition happen?

It feels like there is some strategic logic I'm missing. Obviously the play is that this position will stop National voters bleeding to Opportunity, but if it works out that they need them to form a government, I can't see how National aren't existentially cooked if they reverse that position.

Would Luxon step aside so National could do the deal? (I seriously doubt it, but how else does he save face?). If they did end up forming a government with Opportunity, what lines do you think they'd roll out to justify it?

The biggest about face I can think of regarding coilitions under MMP is when Winston went with National in 1996 after running an aggressive anti-National campaign. They were absolutely slaughtered in subsequent polls and the next election they didn't make the 5% threshold after dropping ~9%. Why do National believe they can avoid that sort of calamity?

Both these guys going into friendly territory here.

‘Handout society’ is such an impoverished mindset to have about society, but it’s effective as a slogan.

Interesting case. I didn’t have ‘migrants like NZF policy’ on my bingo card.

She is right to be wary given NZF had a solid history on being decidedly not great with their attitudes towards immigrants.

Any takes out there about why NZF would be taking this position?

Very satisfying fact check.

https://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1993/82/en/latest/#DLM304643

Human Rights Act 1993

with intent to excite hostility or ill-will against, or bring into contempt or ridicule, any group of persons in New Zealand on the ground of the colour, race, or ethnic or national origins of that group of persons

liable on conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 3 months or to a fine not exceeding $7,000

Open and shut case, bake him away toys..

I missed the debates, but reading this makes me want to watch the replay. Does this summation seem accurate? It sounds productive if nothing else.

Greens making top tier decisions

I am a bit paranoid as in one of past election National decided to kick me of voting rolls because National decided to kick me of voting rolls because as a renter I moved to next street, same voting district. I was sure I was enroll, imagine my surprise when I check and found out I did not.

As result even I enroll couple of weeks before vote I had to cast a special vote.

I think it is a valid question, but 400 symbols.

I summarised their 2008 policies

Law and Order

Full sentences for repeat serious offenders

DNA samples from all arrested for imprisonable offences

tighten bail laws

$50 levy on all offenders to go to victims

extend sentences for worst youth offenders and send less serious offenders to boot camps

force prisoners into work schemes

boost drug treatment in prisons

Health

More surgical theatres to boost elective operations

a 30 percent rebate on health insurance for seniors

no cuts to current budgeted health funding

continuation of universal cheaper doctors' visits and prescriptions

more operations and procedures to be done at community clinics

bonding and loan write-offs for doctors in hard-to-staff areas

Tax

independent earner rebate of $10 from April 2009, rising to $15 in 2010 for childless workers earning between $24,000 and $50,000

With independent earner rebate taxpayers earning between $24,000 and $50,000 would be $28.85 to $46.54 better off in three years, while those on those incomes who do not get the rebate would be between $13.07 and $46.54 better off

Savings and Superannuation

Reduce minimum employee KiwiSaver contribution from 4 percent to 2 percent and reduce employer contribution from 4 percent to 2 percent, cap government employee subsidy at 2 percent

keep universal superannuation at 66 percent of average wage.

Economy

Support retail and wholesale deposit guarantees

direct NZ Super Fund to lift its local investment from 23 percent to 40 percent

reform Resource Management Act

introduce competition to ACC

provide $3.7 billion six-year infrastructure boost including $1.5 billion fibre broadband plan

introduce 90-day probation period for new workers

allow employees to cash in fourth week of annual leave

allow non-union groups to collectively bargain.

Welfare

Boost accommodations supplement and allow Working for Families payments to continue for 16 weeks after being made redundant

tougher work requirements for domestic purpose beneficiaries

raise benefit abatement threshold

tougher assessments for sickness beneficiaries

Education

Overhaul NCEA

introduce national literacy and numeracy standards

extend 20-hours early childhood education subsidy to playcentres and kohanga reos

teach more trades in schools and set up five "trade academies"

ensure all 16- and 17-year-olds are in school, work or approved training courses.

Tertiary Education

Keep interest-free student loans and offer 10 percent early repayment bonus.

Treaty of Waitangi

Complete historical Treaty claims by 2014

provide more resources for the Waitangi Tribunal to speed process

scrap Maori seats after claims completed.

Transport

Increase borrowing to spend an extra $3.7 billion on infrastructure over the next six years

complete the Waikato expressway within a decade and Tauranga's central corridor within six years

encourage private-public partnerships and tolls on major new roads

cut resource consent red tape for major roads.

Climate change

Legislate a target of a 50 percent reduction in carbon emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2050

amend the Government's ETS within nine months of office

incentivise biofuel by exempting it from excise tax or road user charges

exempt electric cars from road user charges

$1000 grants for solar and heat pump water heating.

Environment

Expand the Environmental Risk Management Authority into an environmental protection agency with regulatory functions under the Resource Management Act

create a new national park in Northland's Waipoua forest

encourage the Conservation Department to work better with rural communities.

Immigration

initiate a one-stop-shop approach to servicing the needs of returning New Zealanders

Streamline employer accreditation policies to recruit overseas

cut red tape around hiring seasonal workers

make it easier for people with tertiary qualifications to seek work.

Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade

Review NZ's oversees posts to ensure focus is on key markets

maintain aid spending

hold an extensive review into Defence Force capability and then decide future spending

no change to nuclear-free policy.

Seems a lot of these policies are part of the current National policies.

This whole situation is layer upon layer of fucked. Government puts hiring freeze in place and new grad nurses can’t get jobs. Government tells nursing schools to stop training so many nurses. Meanwhile our hospitals are at breaking point treating patients in hallways and nurse to patient ratios are at unsafe levels.

The most insulting part is that parties are using it as an election football.

It's a double debate night! This thread is for the NZ Herald Leaders’ Debate live at 7pm on Three, ThreeNow, NZ Herald website and YT channel, and Newstalk ZB.

Hosted by Ryan Bridge it's Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins debating live.

If you're watching live, drop into the comments and share your thoughts.

It's a double debate night! This thread is for the ASB Great Debate live on TV1 and TVNZ+ at 6.30pm.

Hosted by Jack Tame with Finance Minister Nicola Willis and finance spokespersons from the top six polling parties.

If you're watching live, drop into the comments and share your thoughts.

That long tail of being kind by the IRD has quite the sting.