That mfr was ahead of his time.

Title says it all. I'm completely regarded, I already know it. $75k already withdrawn. The rest will be withdrawn at the $50k a day limit until I'm back down to my initial $15k investment.

Is the AI bubble in the room with us now? Should shares in Neoclouds just be free? $BRUN is down 80% since June and down 50% in two weeks despite announcing another new contract. Are you guys trying to get my position liquidated or what? Now sitting on loss porn that would make this sub drool.

Yes, I Max Margin.

Why? I don’t know too. Just feel like it bottomed. Fuck you $CRWV

At a $5B market cap and roughly $3B in reported cash and marketable securities, you're looking at around $2B for the rest of the business.

Back in October 2025, when the stock hit $171.56, the market cap was around $25.3B, with less than $1B in cash. Subtract the cash and you get roughly $24.4B.

So the market value beyond cash has gone from $24.4B to about $2.1B in less than a year. That's a 91% decline.

And that's before considering the possibility that the latest $1B ATM adds more cash to the balance sheet. The full amount hasn't necessarily been raised, but if it were, the market would be valuing everything beyond cash at roughly $1B before accounting for subsequent spending.

Obviously, cash isn't free money for shareholders. Oklo has reactors to build, projects to finance and plenty of execution risk. But it's pretty remarkable how much the market's valuation of the business has changed.

The average analyst price target is still around $70, although targets have been coming down.

Has the market become so focused on the risks of commercializing nuclear that it’s overlooking the potential of what Oklo is building? With the market value beyond cash down 91% in less than a year, it feels like the pendulum may have swung a little too far toward pessimism.

$SPCX earnings coming out Oct 20 at 4pm

Was depressed from comments when I woke up and deleted. But then my DD was right

Why I bought this Monday,: rumors of a deal, trump could def taco into double Elon earnings. That ai boost if meta space x and Tesla hit could lead to me up big to roll dice into riding western digital

That could cause massive reposition before sndk earnings next week. I also added a spy 0 dte yolo on the peace rumors this morning

I SURVIVEDx, swipe right to see what I held through was down like 70k at one point

Do I add another 1,000 next week and keep going????

Yesterday yolo options on Rivian, which you guys hated... Today options on coherent which you guys will love.

Got in too late, got out too early, but $18k is still $18k.

Disclaimer: This information was checked for errors but some may exist. Take this at your own discretion, this is an opinion of a regard on WSB. I own shares in FRVO which I might close at any time or maybe I diamond hand them until they expire worthless, that decision is mine and mine alone. If you decide to establish a position similar to mine or contrary to mine, that's on you and you alone. This is not investment advice, I just like the stock.

• Fervo Energy is the OG of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) with significant historical milestones in collaboration with its longtime homie, the US Department of Energy.
• DOE Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF) may imminently throw fat stacks of cash at Fervo driving their project cost of debt down to the US Treasury rate plus a minimal spread.
• The One Big Beautiful Bill maintained Section 48E Investment Tax Credits for geothermal projects allowing up to 50% of the capital cost to be transferred as tax credits through 2033, juicing Fervo’s project returns like a middle-aged man on steroids.
• Combining incredibly cheap DOE EDF debt with fat commercial bank ITC bridge loans allows Fervo to potentially only front 13% of the hard capital to build these hot water energy spas without issuing a single share of dilutive stock.
• As Jensen Huang keeps warning, the primary bottleneck to AI datacenter deployment is power availability which provides Fervo a unique opportunity to pimp out Enhanced Geothermal energy as the only scalable, 24/7 carbon-free baseload source between now and the mid 2030’s.

The stock has been completely cucked due to management’s disclosure that power offtake into California is restricted in 2027 for Phase 1, their originally planned route for Phase 2 into California won’t be available until 2030+, likely litigation due to a seemingly botched S-1, a short report on their technology from Morpheus Research, and roughly 224 million shares being unlocked in early November.  Add some potential tax loss harvesting and it looks like a murder scene in Fervo land.

Here’s the thing though, do the 2027 restricted cashflows actually matter to the long term outlook?  I think not, especially when you see  Google immediately step in to take the power.
Does potentially a S-1 filing that will be studied for all the wrong reasons in law school make the underlying use of fracturing in geothermal have less potential?  I think not.
Does the Morpheus Research report read like it was written by a liberal arts major with no technical background?  I think so!

Tidal Wave Technologies published a  quick writeup to dismiss some of the Morpheus Report’s claims but Morpheus’s analysis is so whack it’s like an early LLM model trying to guess how many r’s are in strawberry: https://tidalwavetechnologies.com/morpheus-researchs-recent-report-on-fervo-energy-a-mythbusters-like-approach-to-assessing-their-claims/

These little “keyboard warriors” as the CEO of Fervo likes to call the naysayers are apparently short the stock, good for them.

What I’d love to see next is Fervo’s pre-IPO shareholders (Devon Energy, TIF Partners, DCVC, Google, Breakthrough Energy, and CalSTRS - many underwater now from the December 2025 Series E-1) issue 8-K’s or Schedule 13D/As stating that they are voluntarily extending their holding period for six to twelve months or until specific price targets or operational hurdles are met.  There are several examples of this happening: Facebook with Mark Zuckerberg in 2012, Twitter with Jack Dorsey, Evan Williams, and Benchmark Capital in 2014.

That being said, let’s dig into why I think Fervo is going to be the AI Buildout Dominatrix.

Fervo’s Romantic Romp with the DOE
Fervo and the DOE go way back like an old married couple who met in high school.  Let’s review their sordid affairs:

• 2021-Present : DOE Geothermal Technologies Office with Utah FORGE
• 2023 : DOE Geothermal Data Repository with Fervo’s Project Red Commercial Pilot
• 2024 : DOE Enhanced Geothermal Scalability Pilot at Cape Station Phase 1
• March 2026 : The EDF issues its initial formal underwriting and environmental review letter for the Cape Station expansion
• May 2026 : DOE EDF explicitly prioritized advanced geothermal and baseload power for AI data centers in the Revised Title 17 guidance
• July 2026 : DOE EDF formally completes all NEPA reviews for Fervo’s initial 400 MW project and explicitly documents a subsequent 600 MW expansion (Phase 3)
• September 2026 : DOE awards $20 million in grants to fund greenfield EGS appraisal in Idaho and Nevada with Fervo

What in the world is the DOE Office of Energy Dominance Financing (EDF)
The EDF is the financing arm of the DOE which has authorization to loan over $250 billion to large-scale commercial energy and critical mineral projects over $500 million in scale.  EDF loans are issued at the US Treasury rate +0.375% and can cover up to 80% of eligible project costs.  The whole point of the office is to provide cheap af sovereign capital so real physical infrastructure actually gets built in the United States.

As noted before in May of 2026 the EDF explicitly prioritized advanced geothermal and baseload power for AI data centers. Guess what Fervo builds? And in July of 2026 the EDF formally completed all NEPA and other reviews necessary for Fervo’s initial 400 MW Phase II expansion as well as documented the 600 MW Phase III expansion.  Sounds sick af!  The very agency whose National Lab scientists watched this technology grow from an idea to current deployment are already getting ready for Phase 3!  And the Morpheus boys are short!  YCMTU!

EDF Checklist for Approval for Fervo’s Cape Station Phase II Fat Stacks of Cash
Does the project build new dispatchable/baseload power and is not primarily for R&D? Yes
Have all required federal environmental reviews taken place?  Yes
Is the technology technically viable and commercially ready?  Likely known by Q1 2027
Does the project have a reasonable prospect of repayment? Mostly. Anchored by the 15-year PPA with Google but still needs SB 132 approval for BTM delivery
Issue fat stacks of cash?  Hopefully H1 2027

What’s Even Better than Really Cheap Capital?  How About a Rebate! (Section 48E ITC Tax Credits)

Here’s the deal, projects placed in service after January 1, 2025 receive a 6% base credit which step up to 30% if the developer satisfies certain requirements.  Fervo utilizes contractors like Helmerich & Payne and Liberty Energy whose field compensation structure already exceeds the prevailing wage scale.  Fervo should capture this 30% credit and it’s the structure you are already seeing in the ITC bridge loan in Cape Station Phase 1.

Additionally projects are eligible for an additional 10% ITC tax credit if they use 100% structural steel produced in the US and more than 50-55% of the manufactured product cost is produced domestically depending on the year.  Fervo attempts to capture this 10% adder with long term casing and tubular contracts that are domestically produced, US sourced proppant, and domestically produced electrical components.  Put that money in the bag!

There is an additional 10% that Fervo’s Cape Station project may be eligible for called the Energy Community Adder but as of today it’s unclear if the Cape Station project will qualify.  For the power plant economics I will be using 40% for ITC but maybe it could be even higher (or lower)!  Note that the tax credits are sold/transferred at roughly 93 cents on the dollar which will flow through the next section.

400 MW Project Economics with 50% EDF Financing and Section 48E ITC Bridge Loan
Let’s assume that Fervo actually delivers Phase II at $6,000/kW which is above the $5,500/kw they’ve guided to.  Total CAPEX would be $2.4 billion, $1.2 billion could be sourced from the EDF, $893 million could be sourced as a 37.2% ITC Bridge Loan and interest, and $383 million (including bridge interest) sourced from the Fervo Parent.  This allows Fervo to only directly finance 13% of the hard buildout (16% all in).  That seems pretty sweet.  Oh and this single 400 MW project could distribute 140-160 MM per year in pure levered cashflow paying back the entire equity check in 2.4 years.

Table 1 : Phase II Economics with Numbers I Think Are Right (But Might Be Wrong)

Running at Current Pace (Assuming Nothing Ever Improves)
Let’s assume that Fervo is never able to drive down the cost of deploying geothermal below $6,000/kW for the next 10 years, never captures 50% ITC, is never able to speed up deployment past the current pace of 400 MW every two years, and continues to finance the buildout the same way (50% EDF debt + 37.2% ITC bridge).  The Fervo Parent would never draw their cash balance down below $1.36 billion with a trough in 2029, turns permanently cash-flow positive at the parent level in 2030, and ends 2035 with $2.84 billion in cash, $1.26 billion in run-rate annual EBITDA when the final 200 MW operates for a full twelve months and 1.9 GW deployed in total.  Discounting the Nothing Ever Improves Case at 7.5% results in around $27 per basic share/$22 diluted.

Table 2 : 10 Year Outlook Assuming Nothing Gets Better (But Might Be Wrong)

Blue Sky Scenario - Fervo as the AI Buildout Dominatrix
Jensen Huang has repeatedly warned that energy availability and power infrastructure represent the primary bottleneck for the future of AI.  

Fervo’s CEO has stated they are seeing ridiculous demand.  Google has already locked in a 600 MW expansion option at Cape Station (on top of the 396 MW Phase II PPA) which coincides directly with the framework the DOE EDF already documented in July 2026.  Additionally, Fervo and Google executed a 3 GW Geothermal Framework Agreement where Fervo has until March 2028 to propose the first GW to Google from its broader development portfolio.  As Lyn Alden says about US fiscal dominance and I will borrow for Fervo, “Nothing stops this train”.

What happens when the AI buildout slams headfirst into a wall of power scarcity? 

On October 18th, 2026, Microsoft cancelled their AI data center in Loughton, Essex reportedly due to the local grid operator telling them they can’t get power until the early-to-mid 2030’s.  What happens as more and more datacenters fail to move forward? Could competition for time to power from the hyperscalers drive contracted 24/7 clean baseload power rates from $100/MWh to over $200/MWh? I have no idea but electricity represents only 5-9% of the total annualized cost of ownership for a datacenter so they likely wouldn’t even blink an eye if it got their datacenter online!  

Guess who is sitting on nearly 40 GW of geothermal resource potential that they can potentially bring to market behind-the-meter?  Fervo might soon be leading the trillion-dollar hyperscalers around the Beaver County desert on a leather leash while they call it Daddy.  A leather leash so nice even Jensen might admire it.

In our Nothing Ever Improves Case and power stays around $100/MWh then Fervo might be worth $27/share.  What’s the value of Fervo if Jensen Huang is right and energy availability is the ultimate bottleneck?  If hyperscalers push power to $150-200/MWh even our Nothing Ever Improves 1.9 GW model jumps to $46-70/share and a 4 GW buildout rockets to $88-130/share.

At today’s prices, Fervo might put the short sellers in a chastity cage and throw away the key.

Positions

SOURCE: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261019056192/en/NYSE-Introduces-Extended-Trading-Hours-for-NYSE-American-Options

Made 53k on tsla options few months ago after everyone here told me I'm an idiot. Here goes false sense of confidence... 27k down.

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Opened these late Friday afternoon, and had a worrisome weekend

Good Luck all. Turbulent day ahead

Realized Gain

(BULL BTW read you lazy fcks.)

Fellow Degens bears and priced in Doomers, Ive been researching investing and gambling on the ai infrastructure sector for the past year. In fact I’ve spent so much time on the sector that my poor university grades have slipped as I spend more and more hours focused on dilution credit risk contracted computing and options pricing rather than financial planning database coding and fictitious internal machinery financing. 

All of this is to say that the sector is wildly irrational seemingly misplacing multiple areas with the risk being beared by debt riddled but operational companies “Coughweave”. Speaking on neoclouds specifically and regarding debt weaves bond pricing you can see multiple bears jump the gun and declare black Monday prematurely. For large scale defaults these companies still need to take on a hell of a lot more debt.

Personally I don’t own any of the Neoclouds at the moment as after I moved from micron to nebius I cashed out at around 208$ my pick for infrastructure is significantly de risked comparatively and already delivering meaningful revenue but more on that later. Now if we look at the pure financial picture core weave is running a debt to equity of 10.27x but before you get the pitchforks 16 billion of the 50 billion in debt is long term leases on infrastructure not high yield debt. So while Coreweave is in heaps of debt only 10b is due in the next 15 months 4.4b in 2026 and 6b in 2027 (found in the 10Q) Notably to pay this debt they’re still receiving vast funding with another 14 billion in long term financing being made available this year which adds to the current 3.5b in ever increasing quarterly cash flow. Essentially what I’m saying here is as a bear your chances of a coreweave default in coming 2 year period is like betting on the housing market to collapse but in 2003 and as they famously say the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent, from what were seeing in the media and the market since June, things can get far far more irrational than you can currently claim they are.

Now for those familiar with the infrastructure space you will know of a type of company type of datacenter landlord. If not here’s the rundown, at the top of the ai money cycle is the Hyperscalers and the labs who need the compute, then you have the neoclouds and Hyperscalers filling the compute with the GPUS and finally the company’s supplying the data centre leases. They are the physical infrastructure power site and cooling that house the GPUS for the neoclouds and hyperscalers. Now these company’s APLD HUT8  WULF CIFR and CORZ move in direct relation to the neoclouds despite a glaring difference. They operate at incredibly high margins once sites and MWs are operational. The major glaring downside to the neoclouds is that they have to deal with GPU depreciation meaning they not only have to deal with their massive financing but they also have to get enough cash together to pay for more GPUs once the old ones are obsolete. 

My broader argument is that out of the AI infrastructure sector, the market is failing to differentiate between companies taking on significant technological and financing risks and those developing long lasting physical infrastructure backed by contracted revenue. This is where I think the bearish infrastructure argument begins to fall apart, particularly when looking at the timelines involved.

Many of these companies are still in the construction phase of their vast multiple GW  development pipelines, meaning their current financial statements reflect substantial capital expenditure without the full benefit of their future contracted revenue leading to them taking on large scale debt which is allowing the default risk idea to be sprung 

Take Applied Digital, for example. The company has secured long-term leases with hyperscale customers, yet its financial performance is still heavily influenced by the costs associated with constructing and financing its facilities. Applied Is down to $18 from its $50 high based purely on hype dying down and overblown macro factors. It has a market cap under 6 billion with nearly 12 billion in assets and 6 billion in debt. It has 600mw coming online and already fully financed which will produce over a billion dollars in yearly revenue at an 89% noi margin from q2 2027 so why is it priced like this ? Apld is much larger than its competitors being hut8 wulf cifr ect with more financed mw more delivered mw and a larger contract base 1.4 gw at 36 billion in revenue and a smallercloud business Chronoscale that serves to reap the benefits of cloud mw pricing with a contract from Microsoft. So why is APLD so devalued, my guess is the overblown risk associated with the 2 original customers being coreweave and oracle, but they have larger contracts with Meta which are incredibly low risk. This risk combines with the fact APLD will have to take on more debt to fund the meta sites, unfortunately for the bears this debt like almost all of APLDs debt isn’t due until after 2030 while they will reap rent revenue of over 2 and a half billion plus additional expansions from 2028 onwards. The market is systematically undervaluing APLD especially when Hut8 boasts a 2 billion dollar higher market cap despite having equal debt a smaller contract backlog and a canary in the coal mine for a tenant (Anthropic). 

The question Bears ask shouldn't simply be how much debt these companies have accumulated. It should be whether the cash flows generated by their contracted infrastructure will be sufficient to service that debt once the facilities become operational.This is why I think 2028 is such an important year for the sector. By then, a much larger proportion of contracted infrastructure should be operational, providing investors with a clearer picture of sustainable margins, debt coverage and the actual economics of these projects.That doesn't mean defaults are impossible before 2028. Companies with inadequate liquidity, uncontracted capacity or significant refinancing requirements could experience financial distress much sooner.But I think the market is making a mistake by extrapolating the risks associated with highly leveraged GPU operators across the entire AI infrastructure industry.

I'm not arguing that AI infrastructure is cheap, nor that every company will survive. I'm arguing that the market is pricing certain infrastructure companies as though they are being run by inept fools and not experts who have projected these financials years in advance and know what they’re doing.

TLDR Coreweave won’t go bankrupt tomorrow, Datacenter landlords are undervalued and imo the unicorns of the market with an actual road to profit for shareholders mirroring memory last year. APLD is beaten down despite great numbers and forecasts with 22% short float 4 days to cover and a Ceo and co founder who are both actively buying millions worth.  positions are a couple thousand APLD shares and calls

\not written with AI\

Well boys, this is it. At an all time low. Got liquidated by the drop on Friday playing 0DTE.
I should have learned my lesson with the 106k and 95k drawdowns earlier in the year, recovered both and finally got to breakeven, when I realized it’s October and I’m 14 points behind SPY, levered up to the tits with calls and went all in on Meta.
The funny thing is by the time the dust settled and I gained consciousness after market close,
Realized in the last 1 hour I had panic sold everything, all my Stocks, GLD, TLT, BTC, then threw whatever is left 100% in TQQQ.

Ran some analysis now over the past 8000 trades I took during the past 2 years.
- my win rate was over 80%
- but the average winner was a scratch, and the average loss so big it wiped months worth of gains.
- robinhood doesn’t have OCO for multi legged options yet, so I didn’t have any stops.
- This one day has set back my retirement plans by a decade.
- I will probably lose the rest revenge trading now.

I guess with the wife pregnant and a baby on the way I have no option but to keep playing the game. Godspeed retards.

Thesis is simple. I've been following Google's share price for a while now and its shown great strength during these last few brutal macro weeks. Therefore, can only go up from here