I've spent the better part of this week digging into Notre Dame vs. BYU, looking through advanced statistics, watching film breakdowns, and listening to analysis from both sides. I've also spent a fair amount of time trolling BYU fans on Twitter, but putting that aside, I think this is one of the most interesting matchups of the college football season.
I actually came away with more respect for BYU than I had going in, particularly its defense. That said, I think there are some significant matchup advantages for Notre Dame that aren't getting enough attention. I wrote a much longer preview (which I included the link to at the end) but here are a few things that stood out:
1. Notre Dame's offensive efficiency vs. BYU's defense
Notre Dame ranks second nationally in points per drive, third in offensive success rate, and third in EPA per snap. CJ Carr has been outstanding, and the Irish are coming off consecutive games rushing for 241 and 361 yards.
BYU's defense is legitimately good, allowing just 20 combined points against TCU and Iowa State over the last two weeks. The Cougars are also sixth nationally in defensive third-down conversion rate allowed, compared to Notre Dame's surprising ranking of 71st in converting third downs offensively.
But there's an interesting wrinkle here. Notre Dame ranks sixth nationally in fewest third downs faced and has scored ten touchdowns on drives without ever facing a third down. The Irish have been so efficient on first and second down that they often don't need to convert third downs to sustain drives.
So if Notre Dame can continue to avoid third downs, particularly third and long, they will be able to avoid one of BYU's strengths. Conversely, if BYU can force the Irish into third down situations, they might be able to get the Irish off the field at a higher rate than we've seen this year.
I think that early-down battle is going to be one of the biggest factors in this game.
2. BYU's aggressive blitzing could be a double-edged sword
BYU blitzes on 44.6% of defensive snaps-- third most nationally-- yet ranks just 91st in pressure rate and 66th in sack rate. The Cougars use smaller, quicker defensive ends and frequently loop them inside through gaps created by their blitz packages. It's a creative scheme that relies on confusion and movement rather than simply overpowering offensive linemen.
Notre Dame's offensive line, meanwhile, averages approximately 315 pounds, with three starters standing 6'7". If the Irish communicate effectively and handle those stunts, I think their size and physicality could become a major advantage, especially running counter against an aggressive defensive front.
Carr has also been exceptional against the blitz, completing 23 of 29 passes for 325 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions through September.
That doesn't mean BYU can't get home. Carr has occasionally locked onto his pre-snap read and made some questionable throws (think the Purdue pick and that slant last week that Stanford's DB dropped), and the Cougars have the personnel to punish those mistakes. But I think Notre Dame is much better equipped to handle this defensive approach than most of the offenses BYU has faced.
3. The Bear Bachmeier problem
I've joked all week that Bear Bachmeier is a glorified fullback. Obviously, he's much more than that, but at 230 pounds, the guy is certainly built like one. He's an absolute load to bring down, isn't afraid to lower his shoulder, and has shown he can carry BYU's offense with his legs when necessary.
The problem is how much BYU might need him to do that on Saturday.
Without LJ Martin, BYU's running backs combined for just 54 yards on 17 carries against Iowa State. Bachmeier rushed for 109 himself, accounting for more than 60% of the Cougars' rushing production. Notre Dame is allowing just 58.3 rushing yards per game, 2.1 yards per carry, and 11 points per game. The Irish have allowed only one rushing touchdown all season.
And while Bachmeier can certainly deliver some punishment himself, those body blows work both ways. Taking repeated hits from guys like Boubacar Traore, Bryce Young, Adon Shuler, and Drayk Bowen is going to add up over four quarters. Even if he breaks a few tackles and picks up some tough first downs early, I question how sustainable that approach is against Notre Dame's size, physicality, and depth.
The Irish don't necessarily need to completely shut down his rushing ability. They just need to make him earn every yard, and I think those hits will start taking their toll as the game progresses.
4. BYU absolutely has a path to victory- but a narrow one
I don't want to make it sound like I'm dismissing the Cougars. BYU has an excellent defense, a dangerous quarterback, and some interesting advantages offensively.
Notre Dame ranks just 91st nationally in third- and fourth-down conversion rate allowed, while BYU ranks 35th offensively. The Cougars are also fifth nationally in converting scoring opportunities into touchdowns, and they have some enormous receiving targets who can create problems downfield.
Notre Dame's secondary has been excellent overall, but the Irish have had a couple of busted coverages this season. Bachmeier is capable of exploiting those mistakes, particularly if he can extend plays outside the pocket.
If BYU forces a couple of turnovers, connects on some explosive passes, and keeps this a low-possession game, I can absolutely see the Cougars stealing it late. Notre Dame fans have unfortunately seen that movie before.
On the other hand, if Notre Dame gets ahead early and forces Bachmeier into obvious passing situations, I think things could get ugly quickly. BYU's offense isn't particularly well-equipped to help erase a multiple-score deficit against this defense.
My prediction: Notre Dame 27, BYU 13
I know predicting a 14-point victory on the road against an undefeated top-ten opponent sounds aggressive. But in all honesty, I initially predicted a 28-7 win for the Irish before doing my research.
After looking at BYUâs advanced statistics, I actually have more respect for the Cougars than I did when I started. Their defense is legitimate, Bachmeier is dangerous, and Notre Dame has some vulnerabilities that could make this a very competitive game. To top it off, my personal Power Ratings have this game at just Notre Dame -8.5 after accounting for home-field advantage.
But I still think the matchup favors the Irish. Notre Dame ranks first nationally in defensive pressure rate against Power Four competition, fifth in pressure rate allowed, third in offensive success rate, and sixth in defensive success rate. Those are the kinds of numbers I trust when evaluating whether a team can consistently control a football game, even on the road. Run game travels. Defense travels.
I expect BYU to slow down Notre Dameâs offense to an extent, and I donât anticipate another 40-point performance from Carr and company. But I think the Irish have enough offensive line talent and enough versatility through the air to eventually find success.
Defensively, I expect Notre Dame to make BYUâs conventional rushing game largely irrelevant. That doesnât mean Bachmeier wonât make plays, and I fully expect him to connect on a few impressive throws. But I donât think he can consistently carry the entire offense against this defensive front.
I think Notre Dame has a considerably simpler path to victory: win the trenches, protect the football, contain Bachmeier, and force BYU to become one-dimensional.
I expect a physical, relatively low-possession game in which BYUâs defense keeps things competitive early. Bachmeier makes a few plays, the Cougars get on the board early, and the crowd is rocking. I can see the score being something like 13-6 at halftime, with the game in the balance. But just like in their games against Wisconsin and North Carolina, Notre Dameâs big O-line will gradually lean on the smaller BYU front and take control on the ground as the game progresses. Eventually, Walton will break a game-clinching run, and a 4th quarter score by Bachmeier is too little too late. The Irish remain undefeated and move on.
If you liked this- I wrote a much more detailed preview covering six X-factors, best- and worst-case scenarios for both teams, and the full reasoning behind my prediction and betting pick. If anyone's interested, you can read the full thing here:
https://quaketakes.substack.com/p/notre-dame-vs-byu-preview?r=8xw0f3&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web