r/ASX_Bets • u/Bebarnbe • 1d ago
Dumbfuck Discussion NXT
83
Upvotes
Imma hold
r/ASX_Bets • u/SatansFriendlyCat • 21d ago
BAN POST 💀 It's still happening, so keep going - Bans and Updates
44
Upvotes
Boy, it sure is interesting times, but the market is still here, and so are we, so let's keep at it.
I hope you didn't take out a mortgage on a diesel motorhome, is all I can say.
Let's get right into it.
UPDATES:
OG u/FameLuck is a mod now. Cant see this going wrong.
Don't forget to tag him in any tedious bickering or anything pointlessly complicated, because he told me he loves work, and lives only to serve the community.
But really, he has been foundational and structural over the years and has given us some great reading material for the kids, and some truly horrible recipes for the rest of us. It's late and I can't go diving for links but if some arrive in my mailbox I might edit them in later.
Welcome to the service and thanks for answering the call.
NEW BETS:
u/kangaroute anticipates that PLS will be equal to or greater than $3.85 at close on the 2nd October.
u/Tommwith2ms is confident enough that AYA will have exceeded $7.50 at some point before 1st January that they have staked three months in exile.
Voted most lovable cat (😮💨), u/Fat-Black-Cat- will take a month from their hypnosis duties if VR8 fails to reach 12c by the 6th October.
u/hgttg will cop one month of tears if gold doesn't reach 4800 before the end of the year.
u/Davidina101 made a Koality Content bet - A4N to reach $0.85 on or before December 1st or $5000 to an Australian wildlife conservation charity. Wonder if their day job is running an Australian conservation charity..
u/Fun-Time4064 made a bet, and I bet you can guess the company. Their faith was misplaced, and they served one week. They have upped the ante with a bet for it to reach 30c by the end of the year, or two months off.
u/WaveSlaveDave makes brave stake on stage - two months against KAO hitting $5 by the end of October.
.
HAMMER-DODGERS:
u/debtandregret1984 won their BGD $1 bet. Good work.
u/Old-Asian-Lady bet on gold teaching 4450, and got the gold. Congrats.
u/alllrandom bet a month that CDR wouldn't hit 5c within a given timeframe, and they were right. Salut.
Worthless, cowardly, piece of appropriately-named shit u/Dramatic-Trash-242 made a bet on 4DX reaching $5.50, and failed at that just like they have at being honourable, and they deleted their account before judgement came due. Boooooo.
.
BANS:
u/SnooFrosted1536 bet a month that CDR would hit 5c within a given timeframe, and they were not right about that. See you in a month.
u/YeElonTusk won their bet for CSL rising above $149 post-report. Well done. Then they bet again at a new price of $185 and lost. They'll serve a week.
u/WolfREEEEEE was influenced, and bet on HWK to hit 8c by the start of October. That's two weeks in the basement cells for you.
u/Yelllowfloof fell into the trap of an indefinite count - and couldn't keep it up. That's a statutory six months beyond the city walls for you, I'm afraid.
Resident market weathervane and unlucky banana u/bananadennis lost a TLX bet at $20, and has served his time in an abandoned lunchbox left at school during the holidays.
TL;DR
Γαμώτο, ξεχνάω να σκεφτώ οτιδήποτε σχετικό και πνευματώδες για το ελληνικό κομμάτι. Κανείς δεν θα το προσέξει, σίγουρα.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 7h ago
Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Thursday, October 22, 2026
14
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.
Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.
r/ASX_Bets • u/FwamingDragon91 • 1d ago
Dumbfuck Discussion Why U no like flying
25
Upvotes
Bruh I know airline stocks are considered poison but what's the story with Virgin Air (VGN). It just goes down and down, especially this month it's down 12ish%. They reported positive revenue growth and it's an industry with very few competitors! What's going on. It's my only stock I'm down in 😭 surely the fuel costs and Iran war are priced in by now sheesh.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 23h ago
Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Thursday, October 22, 2026
10
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.
This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.
Maybe use this time to read the wiki .
Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 1d ago
Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Wednesday, October 21, 2026
17
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.
Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.
r/ASX_Bets • u/Any_Swordfish_684 • 1d ago
Crystal Ball Gazing ASX: ACW (Actinogen Medical) - November catalyst. What’s the market missing?
2
Upvotes
Looking at ACW ahead of the expected mid-November XanaMIA Alzheimer’s trial results. The share price is around $0.048, and a positive readout could be a significant catalyst.
Interested in hearing people’s views on the risk/reward here.
How credible is the Xanamem thesis?
What sort of upside could a genuinely positive result justify?
How ugly could the downside be if the trial misses its primary endpoint?
Is the current valuation already pricing in too much optimism?
Keen to hear from anyone who’s followed the trial, understands the data, or has a bearish case.
r/ASX_Bets • u/Vain64 • 2d ago
Legit Discussion The Copper Bet
14
Upvotes
Trump can swing copper a lot over the next 6-12 months. i don't really care about this, i'm holding copper for 2030-2035, but for you impatient folk, here you go...
In case you haven't heard... ever since Trump ordered a copper tariff study in feb 2025, american institutions have been stuffing copper into US warehouses, basically placing a million-tonne bet on what comes out of their president's mouth next. You know, as normal functioning countries do. The exchange warehouses alone are up ~750% to 714kt, and Macquarie reckons there's ~1.6Mt sitting in the US all up (reuters)
So for the regards who want to copy the american institutions' million-tonne bet:
- Trump phases the tariff in -> americans keep buying copper early to beat each price hike, so there's less left for the rest of the world and copper prices stay high. Good for aussie miners
- Trump scraps it -> no reason to keep hoarding, so the ~1.6Mt americans have stockpiled slowly gets sold back out over a year or two and copper prices fall. Bad for aussie miners
| date | what's proposed |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2027 | 15% tariff on refined copper starts, if trump signs off |
| 2028 | Steps up to 30% |
How copper prices work, for toddlers
There's two copper "shops". COMEX (new york) is the american price. LME (london) is the world price, and it's what aussie miners get paid. They're usually very tightly correlated
When trump threatens a tariff, the US price jumps above london. So traders buy copper everywhere else and ship it to america for a profit, and the rest of the world has less to go around, which drags the LME up too
TLDR; one trump copper related tariff announcement will likely move the US copper price 5-20% in a day, so if you're trading short term, watch what comes out of the white house in relation to copper tariffs
TLDR TLDR: ticker? A1M (u/bananadennis has just sold, bottom signal is in, thanks for allowing A1M to pump again)
Food for thought...do you think Trump has any vested interest in this 1.6Mt stockpile of copper? we all know he's been pushing for nationalism, "bring production home", I don't think he's going to drop the copper tariffs
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 1d ago
Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Wednesday, October 21, 2026
5
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.
This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.
Maybe use this time to read the wiki .
Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 2d ago
Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Tuesday, October 20, 2026
16
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.
Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.
r/ASX_Bets • u/FwamingDragon91 • 2d ago
Legit Discussion RMD
6
Upvotes
I've been tracking this dog all year and finally jumped in recently, as it seems to have hit support and is on the mend.
We're at a point where AI is running out of steam and I think people will be rotating into value soon.
Sleep Apnoea ain't going anywhere and healthcare spending ain't going anywhere either. Aging population etc etc .
I've only got a modest amount in at this stage, but thinking of adding more.
Anything I'm missing? Why don't people like this stock?
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 2d ago
Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Tuesday, October 20, 2026
10
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.
This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.
Maybe use this time to read the wiki .
Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.
r/ASX_Bets • u/Vintego_92 • 2d ago
Legit Discussion Dilution Watch: ASX capital raises, week to 16 October (16 raises, about A$74.0M, two-thirds of it one Nasdaq IPO and one placement) [OC]
3
Upvotes
Disclosure first (rule 7): I run DilutionLens, a free site that tracks dilution for every ASX company from the filings. This is the text-only weekly update you OK'd, not the shill post. Every number below comes from an ASX announcement (raise notices, Appendix 3B/2A filings, quarterly cash reports). No links, no picks, not advice.
A quieter week, priced close to the market. Sixteen companies announced new cash raises between Monday 12 and Friday 16 October for about A$74.0M, and two carried most of it: Amaero's (3DA) Nasdaq listing and Maronan's (MMA) A$20M placement. Without the top three, the other thirteen disclosed A$21.2M between them. Three placements priced above the market, and the deepest stated discount was 11.8%. 10 companies halted citing a capital raise in five sessions, against 15 and 11 the two weeks before. (Ballard's A$45M and Cooper Metals' A$4.85M landed last Monday morning and were in last week's post, so they're not counted again.)
The week's biggest raises
| Ticker | Company | Raise | Price / discount | Off the filings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3DA | Amaero | US IPO, 4,705,883 shares, about US$20.0M (15 Oct) | US$4.25, "an approximately 1.8% discount to last close on ASX" | About A$28.7M at the A$0.6979 rate the filing uses. Each Nasdaq share is 40 of the CDIs that trade here. Underwriters hold a 30-day option over up to 705,882 more shares. 2.28 quarters of funding on its last quarterly. |
| MMA | Maronan Metals | A$20.0M placement (13 Oct) | 40c, "a 2.3% discount to the 5-day VWAP" | 50M shares. The company "does not currently have placement capacity under ASX Listing Rules 7.1 and 7.1A", so the whole issue waits for the AGM on 4 Nov. Largest holder Kinterra goes to 22.99%. |
| REC | Recharge Metals | A$4.1M placement (15 Oct) | 3.6c, "a discount of 2.5% to the 10-day VWAP" | 114,722,222 shares under the standard 15%. Options on issue equal 18.9% of the register, 8.0% of shares in the money. |
| AZ9 | Azzuro Resources | A$3.06M of CDIs to one buyer (14 Oct) | 1.5c, "a premium of 7% to the last traded price" | Kerry Resources Logistics (Hong Kong) ends up with about 19.9%. Used both the 15% and the extra 10%; about 89% of its 15% now used. |
| DUN | Dundas Minerals | A$2.88M placement (14 Oct) | 4.5c, "a 11.8% discount to the last closing price" | The deepest stated discount of the week. Forrestania's executive chairman David Geraghty put in A$750K for about 5.57%; directors A$235K, subject to a vote. |
| KFM | Kingfisher Mining | A$2.25M placement (14 Oct) | 7.5c, "a 5.6% premium to the Company's 15-day VWAP" | One free option per three shares at 10c. About A$800K uses current capacity, A$1.45M waits for a vote. About 29% of its market value, the biggest of the week against company size. |
The rest
| Ticker | Raise | Price / discount | Off the filings |
|---|---|---|---|
| M4M | A$2.60M placement | 0.5c | Plus the chairman's A$626K loan converted on the same terms |
| AXP | About A$2.25M, 1-for-1 entitlement | 0.5c | 0.20 quarters of funding, the thinnest of the week |
| AV1 | A$2.0M placement | 8c, above the last close | From existing holders |
| VRC | A$1.5M placement | ||
| FHS | About A$1.21M placement + entitlement | ||
| PKD | A$800K placement | Alongside a strategic partnership | |
| MBK | A$752K placement | ||
| FRE | A$732K strategic investments | Now about 95% of its 15% used | |
| NOR | A$695K convertible notes | 0.79 quarters of funding | |
| AHF | A$500K placement | 0.83 quarters of funding |
Where the price landed
Each against the reference price its own filing names:
| Ticker | Premium / discount | Against |
|---|---|---|
| AZ9 | +7.0% | last close |
| KFM | +5.6% | 15-day VWAP |
| 3DA | -1.8% | last ASX close |
| MMA | -2.3% | 5-day VWAP |
| REC | -2.5% | 10-day VWAP |
| DUN | -11.8% | last close |
Two of the six priced above the market and three more were within 2.5% under it. Only Dundas took a double-digit discount. Each company picks its own yardstick, a close or a 5, 10 or 15-day average, so the rows don't measure quite the same thing.
The halt conveyor
10 companies halted citing a capital raise: 3DA, AEI, ALB, CMG, DUN, KFM, MCO, MMA, NOR, REC. Six had raised by Friday. Two announced this morning: ALB A$1.8M at 5c, and CMG A$1.25M at 6c, a discount of "13.0% to the last traded price", plus an SPP for up to A$800K at the same price. MCO closed out its SPP and placement. AEI still halted at the time of writing.
28 retail offers open
16 entitlement offers, 8 SPPs, 4 rights issues, down from 32. New this week: entitlement offers from AXP and FHS. The oldest still listed, DBF's convertible note entitlement, is from 27 Aug.
Placement capacity
140 companies past 75% of the 15%, 88 past 90%, 16 have used all of it, against 143, 89 and 18 a week ago. This week's raisers now past 75%: FRE about 95%, AZ9 about 89%, AXP about 82%. MMA is the other end of the same rule: none left, so its A$20M needs a vote.
Overhangs among this week's raisers
AZ9's options equal 40.7% of its register, none in the money. DUN's are 36.4%, with 15.7% of its shares in the money. REC 18.9% (8.0% in the money), MMA 8.2% (7.7% in the money).
Dilution risk across the market: 592 Minimal, 333 Low, 373 Moderate, 258 High, 185 Very high, 118 Not rated. About one in four rated companies sits at High or Very high.
Happy to pull the filing on any name in here if someone wants the detail. Next one Monday.
If you'd rather get these in your inbox, the site's Watch page has a free email signup - one field, and the link it sends turns it on. No URL here, that's the deal with the mods.
General information only, not financial advice. No view on any company's future actions or securities.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago
Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, October 19, 2026
13
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.
Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago
Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Monday, October 19, 2026
8
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.
This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.
Maybe use this time to read the wiki .
Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.
r/ASX_Bets • u/Vintego_92 • 4d ago
Legit Discussion Pumped then placed: 39 ASX raises in 6 months came right after a 30%+ run. Here's the news that started 7 of them [OC]
28
Upvotes
Disclosure (rule 7): I run DilutionLens, free site tracking dilution off ASX filings. One-off, not the weekly post. No links, not advice.
Someone ran a poll here asking what kills your confidence in management fastest, and "raising soon after bullish messaging" won with 24%. So I counted it.
Placements announced 15 April to 14 October that came straight after a trading halt: 393. In 39 of them the share price ran 30%+ over the 10 trading days before the halt, 16 ran 50%+ and 5 more than doubled. The median run-up across all 393 is zero, so most raises don't come off a pump. The ones that do usually come off news.
Seven of them, with the announcement in the run-up:
| Ticker | The news before the halt | The run | The raise | Since |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAO | 2 Sep: "Visual Copper Mineralisation Intersected in First Holes" | 75c to $2.50 | $20m at $2.20, 12% under the last close | 82c. Assays came out 12 Oct |
| DXN | 3 Jun: "$8.8m maiden AI HPC contract", "structured as a pilot proof-of-concept" | 2.2c to 17.5c | $7m at 13c, 25.7% under the last close | 27.5c |
| LMG | 17 Sep: US$15m "Non-Binding Letter of Support" for a US plant study | 0.8c to 1.9c | $8.5m at 1.5c (placement + rights issue) | 1.3c |
| RML | 8 Apr: White House FAST-41 permitting status. 14 Apr: "Antimony Trioxide Produced" | 4.6c to 8c | $20m at 7c | 3.4c |
| JNS | 13 and 16 Jul: about $55m of US truck conversion orders, the bigger batch "Conditional Orders" | 14.5c to 24.5c | $7.7m at 24c, 2% under the last trade | 47.5c |
| VFY | 2 Jun: partnership with US blood network Vitalant | $2.67 to $3.80 | $30m at $2.60, 31.6% under the last close | $2.86 |
| EIQ | 25 Jun: binding heads of agreement with Pro Medicus, $10m investment | $1.15 to $1.59 | $110m at $1.45, 8.8% under the last trade | 43c, fell after its 8 Sep FDA application update |
The trick in the wording: four of the seven (KAO, DXN, LMG, RML) quoted their price as a premium to a 15 or 20 day average, an average built mostly before the run. DXN's announcement says both "25.7% discount to the last close" and "8.2% premium to the 15-day VWAP". Same price, pick your headline.
The other side, so this isn't a one-way roast: of the 38 runners with a price today, 21 trade below their raise price. Across all 385 placements with a price it's 247, about two in three. So buying the raise after a run hasn't done worse than buying any other raise, and DXN and JNS placees have roughly doubled their money. The run-up tells you the price was hot when they sold. It doesn't tell you the news was hype.
How I counted: an Appendix 3B for a cash placement, a trading halt in the 7 days before it, the close the day before the halt against the close 10 trading days earlier. Consolidations, cancelled raises and stocks with gaps in their price history taken out. Prices to 16 Oct.
Which one did I miss? Some of the 39 ran with no price-sensitive news at all (VMM, ASL, IVZ), those are a different post.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 5d ago
Daily Thread Weekend Thread for General Discussion and Plans for Saturday, October 17, 2026 and Sunday, October 18, 2026
10
Upvotes
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 6d ago
Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Friday, October 16, 2026
12
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.
Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 6d ago
Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Friday, October 16, 2026
12
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.
This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.
Maybe use this time to read the wiki .
Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.
r/ASX_Bets • u/NoMix5094 • 7d ago
Dumbfuck Discussion Iv waited for this day for so so long now. 🥲
28
Upvotes
Just as I thought had lost my mind averaging down to 31 I have been redeemed.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 7d ago
Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Thursday, October 15, 2026
9
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.
Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.
r/ASX_Bets • u/Standard-Pain-3405 • 7d ago
Legit Discussion ASIC drops Richard White insider trading investigation
15
Upvotes
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 7d ago
Daily Thread Premarket Thread for General Trading and Plans for Thursday, October 15, 2026
7
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too.
This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period.
Maybe use this time to read the wiki .
Posts relating to the "Is r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.
r/ASX_Bets • u/AutoModerator • 8d ago
Daily Thread Market Open thread for General Trading and Plans for Wednesday, October 14, 2026
14
Upvotes
Your markets are run by bots. Now your r/Asx_bets daily threads are too.
Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting.